June natural gas was set to open Thursday about 1.6 cents lower at around $2.799/MMBtu, with the market turning its attention to the 10:30 a.m. ET release of potentially pivotal government storage data.
NG storage report must have been pretty neutral.......+106 bcf. That's a pretty big number but was expected.
We tested the huge resistance and lows of 2.780 and are hovering just below 2.8 right now.
Yeah, Mike, that injection level was dialed in nicely based on the various average guesses mentioned in news reports in advance. Now we wait for next week's number. Does it come down some due to the intense heat this week in much of the E US? Or are we in for a string of 105+ injections? Stay tuned!
I predict that next weeks number is below 100 bcf. There just has been too much early season record heat over too large of an area and thus too many CDD's during this last week.
I know that we are close to the epicenter of the heat here in S.IN but the AC's have been cranking for the past week, more like it's late June or even July.
NG highs so far 2.840. Some decent resistance at 2.844 area.
We are just below that.
The June forecast came out pretty warm to hot(in the Southwest to S.Plains). However, look at the Summer
outlook in the next post
June/July/August Temperatures............after a very warm June, one would expect the Midwest to have
a slightly lower chance for long lasting heat in July/August. Part of this is the tendency over the last 2 decades of the Midwest NOT having excessive heat during that time frame.
June July August 2018- Temperatures
Based on my analysis, today did come in a bit tighter than much of both 2014 and 2015 although it came in way looser than much of 2016 and a bit looser than much of 2017 fwiw. It came in rather similar to much of 2013. So, this didn't beat the 5 year average by 20 bcf on a DD adjusted basis, which will be needed through 11/1 to get back to the 5 year average by the end of injection season. At best it beat it by about 10 bcf.
Today's report was based on TDD (HDD + CDD) of only 45, which is tied with 3 other weeks for 2nd lowest since 2003.
Lowest TDD of EIA weeks since 2003/EIA
5/18/12: 43 TDD/+77 bcf
5/11/18: 45 TDD/+106 bcf
10/7/16: 45 TDD/+79 bcf
10/3/14: 45 TDD/+105 bcf
10/14/11: 45 TDD/+103 bcf
10/4/13: 46 TDD/+90 bcf
5/25/12: 46 TDD/+71 bcf
9/26/08: 46 TDD/+87 bcf
The above 7 weeks (other than 5/11/18) averaged only +87. So, today was looser than the average of these 7 similar weeks by a whopping 19 bcf. But the two 2012 weeks followed a much higher 3/31/12 storage, which was similar to the high 3/31/16 storage. These were by far the 3 tightest weeks for good reason. If these 3 are thrown out, the average of the other 4 is +96 fwiw.
Next week's report will be another very telling report.