Natural gas tested $2.8 and held a short while ago. Low is 2.798

                By metmike - May 14, 2018, 10:41 a.m.            

Extended guidance turning MUCH DRIER!

With a heat ridge building out West.

Week 2 precip:

Week 2 Temps:

Temps in 2 weeks....hot West but very warm also in the East:

NG resistance 2.844(right here) and 2.873

Looks like the start of the upside break out mentioned on Thursday, which happened after the EIA report will be confirmed above those levels.

From WSJ newswire:

"Some had predicted that record-high production would quickly refill 
stockpiles, but if this summer is a hot one, the market could remain tight. 
Forecasters at Bespoke Weather Services said 'consistent heat' in the coming 
weeks 'in a market that is not as loose as expected" are behind the gains.'"

Week 3 on the CFS model has major heat. Week 4 backs it up west to the S.Plains.

Hard to get to excited about heat in the Northeast this time of year but temps there should be pretty warm too.

 Compared to the prior EIA week, the CDD increased by 8 but the HDD decreased by 25. Whereas the CDD were 4 above normal, the HDD were 26 below normal. Therefore, I'm fully expecting a 100+ injection in this week's report, and it could easily end up being well above 100.

 However, the subsequent (current) week could very possibly result in a different story. CDDs have risen to well above normal. While the HDD will have dropped further, that drop may not be as big an influence as the big CDD gain. We'll see the result a week from Thursday. The next two reports will tell us a lot to go along with the last 2.

Thanks Larry!

From Natural Gas Intelligence:

Warm Forecasts Help Spur Natural Gas Futures, Spot Markets Higher

     5:35 PM    

Natural gas futures rallied Monday as forecasts for warmer-than-normal May temperatures provided support for the bulls following last week’s storage-driven gains. Spot prices strengthened across most regions amid expectations for higher cooling demand this week; the NGI National Spot Gas Average climbed 13 cents to $2.39/MMBtu.

If NG can close above 2.873, the March highs, then the bull is in business.

If the heat stays in the forecast, I'll be we can do that.

Larry,

We are only focusing on residential cooling(and heating demand) which is all weather. However, one thing to keep in mind is that when the economy is strong, industrial demand increases.

In January 2009, after the economy tanked, we had a massive, near record cold wave show up on the weather models. 

The market almost always goes up, when the forecast gets much colder from a weather pattern like this in January.  

However, it just kept going lower, with just a tiny blip in a big part because industrial demand had crashed and ng prices were in a collapse lower(fracking was also bringing much more supply to the market).