Happy July 17th! Do something to make somebody feel lucky today!
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere.
We are now trading "Rain makes Grain"(hot and dry are bullish).......as the advertised changes continue and a heat ridge becomes a major player for the rest of July. Where it's located is the key to how bullish the weather might get...........it DID peak last Friday.
Heat is also bullish for natural gas. Cooler weather forecasts now bearish.
Wednesday's update continues with the (bearish) trends mentioned the previous 4 days.
The heat ridge is retrograding(backing up westward) next week....so cooler next week. How much rain in week 2 is the million dollar question?
There is another chance of rain in IA .......actually coming this weekend!!!(after todays surprise rains) The US model has a huge rain, others not so much. VERY Warm upper levels may defeat rain making in IA/IL with that cold front.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Current Weather Map
| NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Wind map Press down on this on the left with your cursor!
Current Jet Stream
| Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Very Warm to Hot everywhere.........but cooler underneath Barry's clouds in the Eastern Cornbelt.
Highs for days 3-7:
Intense heat to start.......then turning much cooler and lasting thru next week.
Temperatures compared to average for days 3-7 below
Above average red colors will be morphing to average and even a bit of below average blue colors........ as we approach the hottest time of year seasonally.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Weather maps for days 3-7 below
A surface front pushing south this weeked is the main feature. However, aloft the air will be very warm and stable and cap the atmosphere below in some places, which will defeat rising parcels attemps to become thunderstorms...........in parts of the belt.
Much cooler air for sure next week but also DRY.
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Barry's remnants departing the Eastern Cornbelt. Main rains shifted north over the top of a hot, capped air mass from very warm air aloft........some have hit IA today.
Huge potential event on Sunday. Boom or bust for IA. US model has a big rain, others have warm air aloft.
Mostly dry next week with the much cooler air.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Risk of excessive rains.
A few areas with the risk of excessive rains decreasubg the next couple of days.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 12Z 04/22/19 - 12Z 04/23/19 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
| Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 04/23/19 - 12Z 04/24/19 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Slight risk of severe storms, mainly a wind threat on top the building heat ridge. This will shift north tomorrow and the air aloft under the dome in the southern cornbelt will be capped for a couple of days.
Current Day 1 Outlook | Forecaster: Thompson/Squitieri Issued: 20/1624Z Valid: 20/1630Z - 21/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms |
Current Day 2 Outlook | Forecaster: Broyles Issued: 20/0546Z Valid: 21/1200Z - 22/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk |
Current Day 3 Outlook | Forecaster: Broyles Issued: 20/0711Z Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/daily
Current Dew Points
Sultry air causing the heat to feel even hotter this week!
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
| (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Iowa has dried out!
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
Much of Iowa has dried out, along with parts of the central and eastern belt.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Currently, there is 0% of the main Cornbelt/Midwest with drought.........but it's been very dry along the Canadian border. There is drought in the Southeast.
The map below is updated on Thursdays.
The market has turned into a rain makes grain market( any hot/dry in the forecast will be considered as bullish for the next month+).
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:
Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past. This is an end of week 2 forecast!
Last Sunday: 12z model, latest one again today. Very deep upper level trough off the West Coast, centered off the sw Coast of Canada with a heat ridge/dome downstream. A minority of members 1/3rd have the idea of an upper level trough in the Northeast with some cooling there. The Dome is very impressive in the central US. Good trough/ridge couplet in this amplifying pattern.
Monday: Deep trough off the West Coast teleconnects well with its counterpart in the downstream couplet of a major heat ridge in the central part of the county. Favored locations of the rain suppressing dome are in the c/s Plains eastward. This model is the most bullish.
Tuesday: 12z run today. Still the deep trough off the West Coast and impressive downstream heat ridge. Where will it be at the end of 2 weeks? This model has it a bit farther west today with an upper level trough and cooling in the Northeast. Wide spread and disagreement on the location of this dome, anywhere from the S.Rockies to the Upper Midwest and even East on a couple of solutions.
Wednesday: Heat ridge slightly farther west, as well as some upper troughing in the Northeast slightly farther west on this model mean for today but its still the same trough west, downstream heat ridge pattern. Where will the most intense heat be and how much rains are very undetermined/uncertain.
Thursday: Big heat ridge most of the country. Strong zonal get over the top.
Friday: The changes from yesterday continue. Center of the heat ridge shifts west but still extends east for awhile. Strong jet stream along the northern tier portends potential late week 2 cooling as it breaks down the heat ridge in that part of the country. Big model to model changes on these developing features.
Saturday: Enormous spread on the location of the heat ridge.....with certainty, there will be a huge heat ridge/dome. This particular model has some(minority) solutions that like the heat ridge farther east..........so we can't assume that its going to shift west as some guidance is telling us.
Sunday: 12z run. Changes from the last several days continue...............heat ridge shifting west and weakening now. Troughing downstream in the East, back to the Midwest means the heat will be giving way to much cooler air during the last week of July. Half the solutions have this trough very deep........enough to cause much below temperatures if they are correct.
Monday: This model, in contrast to the other ones overnight is actually warmer and drier, with the heat ridge trying to come back east and bumping out the upper level trough in the East (which will bring down cool air) on around half of the solutions.
Tuesday: Midwest to Northeast trough a bit deeper today, so more cooling. Heat ridge in the S.Plains.
Wednesday: Almost a carbon copy of yesterday!
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 01, 2019 00 UTC
0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:
Analysis, starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:
Last Monday: Deep trough/cut off low far sw Canada with a downstream heat ridge.......extremely impressive. This was the 0z model. The last run of the US model took out all this heat and the other models added rains in week 2 which has taken out much of the bullish gusto from Sunday evening.
Tuesday: Where will the HUGE heat ridge be at the end of 2 weeks?
Wednesday: Massive heat ridge in week 2. Best location is the middle of the country on this model but uncertain.
Thursday: Massive heat ridge. Will it back up towards the west a bit late in week 2?
Friday: Potential for the massive heat ridge to back up west and allow some northern stream cooling to the east but solutions are going back and forth on this. It's a dry pattern for most of the Corn, regardless.
Saturday: This model also is not sure about the location of the dome of upper level high pressure, favoring the Rockies to points southeast with a potential downstream upper level trough in the Northeast.
Sunday: Upper ridging is rebuilding in Central Canada and connecting to downstream troughing below it that may extend all the way into the Upper Midwest/Northeast. This means MUCH cooler air masses from Canada. Heat ridge backs to the southwest of the position it will be in later this week.
Monday: Most have the ridge/West, trough/East couplet that means cool temps. The last runs also increased rains with this pattern that can often be fairly dry.
Tuesday: Deep trough in the Northeast means cool Midwest.
Wednesday: Bigger spread on this model vs Tuesday, with a few(minority) bringing the heat ridge east.
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average). The daily analysis starts with the oldest and ends with the latest.
Last Tuesday: Still the negative anomaly centered off the sw Coast of Canada with the downstream positive anomaly centered in the Upper Midwest associated with the huge heat ridge.
Wednesday: Same trough/negative anomaly West, huge ridge/positive anomaly east couplet. Ensures heat over most of the country.
Thursday: Anomalies not as strong but heat ridge dominates. Positive anomaly center is a bit farther west today.
Friday: Still positive anomalies a bit farther west from earlier in the week and slightly cooler in the East with a wide spread in solutions. Dry pattern for the Midwest.
Saturday: Positive anomalies, especially the farther northwest you go. The weakest anomalies are from the Great Lakes to south they are around average in those locations.
Sunday: Huge change in the positive anomaly center with it massively growing from yesterday in NorthCentral Canada. Weak negative anomaly below it in southeast Canada to around the Great Lake links up to some potential northern stream cold fronts.
Monday: Looks just likelSunday. Positive anomaly N/C Canada extending to W USA with a weak negative anomaly from SE Canada to the Eastern 1/3 of the US that translates to a potential connection with some cooler air from Canada.
Tuesday: Same big positive anomaly in N/C Canada coupled with negative anomaly in the Northeast for cool air delivery south of the border.
Wednesday: Positive anomaly center shifted to NW Canada but positive in the Western US and weakness downstream suggest cool temps............possibly dry. Potential building heights from the W.Atlantic to the East Coast which might bring hot weather back to the East in less than 2 weeks.
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Last Sunday: Alot of movement. AO which is negative, increases during week 2 to zero. NAO still has enough negative members that there "could be" a trough in the Northeast at the end of week 2. PNA is gyrating in week 2, mostly positive but down towards 0 at the end. with uncertainty on the location of the deep trough out west and downstream ridge.
Monday: Slightly negative AO. Negative NAO argues for potential cooling in the Northeast to upper Midwest, despite the heat ridge in the center of the country. PNA is wildly fluctuating still with uncertainty, going from positive to negative at the end.........based on the exact position of the deep upper level low pressure system just off the West Coast.
Tuesday: Negative AO, fairly negative NAO suggests potential troughing and cooling in the Northeast. PNA fluctuating like crazy, near zero in 14 days.
Friday: AO near 0, NAO slightly negative, PNA drops from positive to negative.
Saturday: AO close to 0, NAO a tiny bit negative, PNA drops from positive to negative like yesterday.
Sunday: AO a smidgen below 0, PNA bouncing around but I think the noteworthy indices here is the negative NAO which will be associated with the trough in the East which causes the cooler weather later in July.
Monday: AO is near 0, maybe a tad less. NAO is negative with the trough in the east and favors cooler temperatures. PNA is also negative but unstable with some uncertainty in the West.
Tuesday: AO near 0. Negative NAO means cool. Negative but gyrating to 0 PNA, some uncertainty out west.
Wednesday: AO near 0. Huge change in NAO, which is pretty positive in week 2 vs negative previously. Might an upper level ridge try to build along the East Coast???PNA wildly fluctuating around 0.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
My comments below are usually made hours before the afternoon update, starting with the oldest comment.
Last Monday: Tons of heat for sure and dry in the 6-10 day, probably the 8-14 day(northern US will have rains over the top of the heat ridge) but the market has traded this hot/dry forecast for several days and dialed it in now. The question is.............how long will it last and will it become LESS hot/dry with time? The overnight models were already adding more rain in the 8-14 day period.
Tuesday: Widespread heat! How much rain? A good case can be made for rains to become more scarce with this type of pattern.
Wednesday: Widespread heat a given! How much rain is a huge question mark. This type of pattern can go either way, including a good case for rains to dry up. The heat will be drying soils out too.
Thursday: Widespread heat for sure again! How much rain and remnants of Barry early in the period are the big questions marks.
Friday: The NWS will be loaded with heat again but some solutions are going for late period cooling. This pattern is typically pretty dry for most of the Cornbelt so below precip should cover alot of terrain.
Saturday: The NWS will still have alot of heat but the later periods may be cooling off in the next few days in the Northern US. This is often a dry pattern historically but if northwest flow develops, weather systems/fronts can be fairly action on the eastern side of the heat ridge to the west.
Sunday: Confidence getting pretty high for the pattern change to cooler. This will definitely show up with gusto in the 8-14 day forecasts for the next few days, then the 6-10 day, possibly catching some of it later today. How much rain during that period. Good question. The air masses coming from Canada may not have deep moisture but this pattern in July can be dry or turn much wetter, depending on where upper level troughing sets up in the Midwest to points east.
Monday: Continuing to cool into the 6-10 day period now as the change to the heat ridge shifting west gets closer. How much rain to put in the forecast? The last few days, the case was strong for it to be dry. Today, much of the guidance is a bit wetter than before but not all of it. Rain amounts for the periods below are very uncertain.
Tuesday: Cooler again for sure. The case to increase rains is going up.
Wednesday: Hot West, cool East again, maybe dry Midwest with very low confidence. At the end of 2 weeks, the pattern could morph to ridge building East.......just a chance of that on a few solutions this morning and that won't show us in the NWS forecasts this afternoon.
Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
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Previous discussions:
By Jim_M - July 14, 2019, 1 p.m.
Thanks for all the work analysis Mike. Looks like Iowa is missing out on that moisture.
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Your welcome Jim! Correct on IA missing in yesterdays forecast. A better chance today from overnight guidance but that could change in a flash.
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By metmike - July 15, 2019, 7:53 p.m.
The 18z run of the US models was even wetter in the 8-14 day period which will assist the corn and beans in gapping lower on the open tonight.
The heat ridge stays backed out west.......around the Rockies with an active northwest flow type situation ushering in cooler air and perturbations in the flow triggering potential waves of rain.........but the European model from 6 hours earlier is drier.
Re: INO Evening Market Comments
By metmike - July 17, 2019, 5:43 p.m.
Thanks tallpine!
The big cluster of storms with welcome rains to Iowa today put pressure on the grains. Those are hitting Western IL right now with more welcome rains. Hard to say how long they will survive but its been much longer than models projected and they started way back in the Plains early this morning.
Best guess right now is that they will start curving more southward across W. IL to South/central IL then possibly to SW IN. and W.KY if they are still alive later this evening but think maybe the curvature could even have a west component with additional development into MO...........maybe hitting Grant. They have blown up on the periphery of the heat ridge as it builds in from the southwest. The storms will be curving to the south more with time, heading into E.MO too. These will definately not track east like typical storms.
These storm complexes can sometimes take on a life of their own and feed off of the hot/humid air flowing from the south towards them.........in fact, will have a motion that curves towards that inflow direction.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
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