I will go out on a limb and predict total corn production for 2019 is in the low 12 billion range as in less than 12.5
I think the whole production number will be decided by 1st frost date, and my impression is too many acres are at risk of a normal frost date.
Except for this yrs PP, all the rest usually happens in most yrs. Different places and different issues but we have problems every yr.
But I don't know of a yr with so many acres of June plantings as this yr. Thus my frost thinking.
Methinks higher prices will come, which we really don't need, [long term] as demand destruction will happen.
Volitility is the name of the game. Buy the dips and sell the rallies, as the weather plays out for the rest of this yr. Yes, we will get a frost scare this yr.
Thanks Wayne!
There is more uncertainty about production this year than any in history with the exception of 1993 and actually, in July of 1993, the market estimates for the growing new crop were not as wide as they are here in 2019.
Of course in 1993, even the lowest estimates in July were MUCH too high and the biggest harvest surprises ever happened that year.
I always avoid having positions on for a crop report but the October 1993 crop report was one that I bought corn in front of the report for because of knowing it would be so bullish. I traded with Bower Trading at the time, who had alot of farmer contacts(this was 26 years ago, and information about everything was not at our fingertips) and Jim Bower was absolutely convinced, from his contacts feeding him yield reports that the USDA was going to be a bullish shocker.
Corn was limit up after the USDA released its MUCH MUCH smaller production estimate for that Oct. 1993 report.
After our worst corn planting season ever here in 2019, the weather has been MUCH better than it was in July 1993. In July of that year, record rains fell in the Western Cornbelt with the 2nd worst flooding in history along the Mississipi River.
At the same time, a heat ridge parked in the Eastern Cornbelt(which actually caused the blocking pattern which resulted in the stalled systems in the WCB) and here in Indiana, yields suffered because of hot/dry weather all Summer.
Huge thunderstorm complexes would develop in the Plains and clobber the WCB/Upper Midwest, then dry up as they hit the rain defeating wall of upper level high pressure and warm air aloft parked just east of the Mississippi RIver. This would happen over and over in the same places.
This survey of the Great Flood of 1993 has 334 pages and loads of information, including pictures.
https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/93_Flood.pdf
In contrast to July 1993, the weather in July 2019 has not obliterated yield prospects. The crop ratings went up 1% yesterday with corn ratings 7% better than they were in 1993, with bean ratings 8% higher than 1993 this year.
With cooler temperatures on the way next week, that should help lessen stress but the amount of rains that will fall the next 2 weeks is very much uncertain. The US model has more rain than the European model.
The northwest flow we have during the later part of the month can be fairly dry or it can also be active and feature numerous weather systems tracking from northwest to southeast across the cornbelt.