Weather Sunday
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Started by metmike - July 14, 2019, 10:05 a.m.

Happy July 14th!   Do something to make somebody feel lucky today!

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere.   

We are now trading "Rain makes Grain"(hot and dry are bullish) the advertised changes continue as rains dry some places.. and a heat ridge becomes a major player for the rest of July. Where it's located is the key to how bullish the weather might could have peaked on Friday.

Heat is also bullish for natural gas.

Sunday's update continues exactly with the (bearish) trends mentioned yesterday: "The Saturday week 2 forecast is COOLER!!! The heat ridge is retrograding(backing up westward)"

"Barry became a minimal we track the remnants into the Cornbelt............a bit more area with welcome rains than yesterdays forecast, with the remnants possibly raining into S.IL(and points eastward) next week.  Iowa is still dry and needs rain."

Here are the latest hazards across the country.

Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     



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      Wind map     Press down on this on the left with your cursor!




Current Jet Stream

Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning




By metmike - July 14, 2019, 10:06 a.m.
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Highs today and tomorrow.

Very Warm to Hot everywhere.........but cooler underneath Barry's remnants.


By metmike - July 14, 2019, 10:07 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Mostly HOT in much of the country.  Some cooling under departing Barry remnants on Wednesday.

By metmike - July 14, 2019, 10:08 a.m.
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Temperatures compared to average for days 3-7 below

Above average red colors in most of the country....... as we approach the hottest time of year seasonally.

This is the first long stretch with widespread above  average temperatures in the middle of the country since December 2018.

By metmike - July 14, 2019, 10:10 a.m.
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Weather maps for days 3-7 below


Watching the remnants of Barry....which will be departing the Eastern Cornbelt at the start of this period after dropping some welcome rains to those areas.

By metmike - July 14, 2019, 10:14 a.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.

 Dome of upper level high pressure will suppress rains in NE/KS/IA, as they shift to the northern/nw belt, around the periphery of the dome. 

KEY FEATURE: Remnants of potential minimal hurricane Barry! How far north will they go next week??? Up to the Ohio River? Saturday maps take Barry rains NORTH of the Ohio and even IL could get some. Sunday continues to bring welcome rains into parts of IL, especially southeast and points eastward.

Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - July 14, 2019, 10:16 a.m.
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Risk of excessive rains.

Excessive rains from remnants of Barry shifting northward early this week, then going east in the middle of the week.

Barry, for the Cornbelt is seen as a "rain makes grain" entity, doing more good then harm from any very heavy rains. Some of the remnants could produce heavy rains in the Eastern Cornbelt.

   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions



Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/22/19 - 12Z 04/23/19


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/23/19 - 12Z 04/24/19


Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 


Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
By metmike - July 14, 2019, 10:19 a.m.
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Slight risk of severe storms, mainly a wind threat has shifted farther northwest by the building heat ridge.

Possible severe storm or 2 from Barry remnants today.

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Thompson/Squitieri
Issued: 20/1624Z
Valid: 20/1630Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms        
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Broyles
Issued: 20/0546Z
Valid: 21/1200Z - 22/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Broyles
Issued: 20/0711Z
Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - July 14, 2019, 10:20 a.m.
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I'll be back in a couple of hours to finish the weather page!

By Jim_M - July 14, 2019, 1 p.m.
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Thanks for all the work analysis Mike.  Looks like Iowa is missing out on that moisture.

By metmike - July 14, 2019, 1:48 p.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

By metmike - July 14, 2019, 1:50 p.m.
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Current Dew Points

Even deeper moisture is coming northward with Barry's remnants to  north of the Ohio River.

Current Dew Points


Latest radar loop

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop



Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image


Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image


    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      



Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Iowa has dried out!

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

By metmike - July 14, 2019, 1:51 p.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).

Much of Iowa has dried out!

      Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

By metmike - July 14, 2019, 1:53 p.m.
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Currently, there is 0%  of the  main Cornbelt/Midwest with drought.........but it's been very dry along the Canadian border. There is drought in the Southeast. 

The map below is updated on Thursdays.

 The market has turned into a rain makes grain market( any hot/dry in the forecast will be considered as bullish for the next month+).


       Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - July 14, 2019, 1:57 p.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:

Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past. This is an end of week 2 forecast!

Last Friday: Very impressive heat ridge on just over  half the members again overnight.

Saturday: Using the just updated 12z run for this update. WOW! Look at the deep cut off low along the coast of southwest Canada! The magnitude of this feature is MUCH greater than yesterday and with almost universal

Sunday: 12z model, latest one again today. Very deep upper level trough off the West Coast, centered off the sw Coast of Canada with a heat ridge/dome downstream. A minority of members 1/3rd have the idea of an upper level trough in the Northeast with some cooling there. The Dome is very impressive in the central US.  Good trough/ridge couplet in this amplifying pattern.

Monday: Deep trough off the West Coast teleconnects well with its counterpart in the downstream couplet of a major heat ridge in the central part of the county. Favored locations of the rain suppressing dome are in the c/s Plains eastward. This model is the most bullish.

Tuesday: 12z run today. Still the deep trough off the West Coast and impressive downstream heat ridge. Where will it be at the end of 2 weeks? This model has it a bit farther west today with an upper level trough and cooling in the Northeast. Wide spread and disagreement on the location of this dome, anywhere from the S.Rockies to the Upper Midwest and even East on a couple of solutions.

Wednesday: Heat ridge slightly farther west, as well as some upper troughing in the Northeast slightly farther west on this model mean for today but its still the same trough west, downstream heat ridge pattern. Where will the most intense heat be and how much rains are very undetermined/uncertain.

Thursday: Big heat ridge most of the country. Strong zonal get over the top.

Friday: The changes from yesterday continue. Center of the heat ridge shifts west  but still extends east for awhile. Strong jet stream along the northern tier portends potential late week 2 cooling as it breaks down the heat ridge in that part of the country. Big model to model changes on these developing features.

Saturday: Enormous spread on the location of the heat ridge.....with certainty, there will be a huge heat ridge/dome.  This particular model has some(minority) solutions that like the heat ridge farther we can't assume that its going to shift west as some guidance is telling us.

Sunday: 12z run. Changes from the last several days continue...............heat ridge shifting west and weakening now. Troughing downstream in the East, back to the Midwest means the heat will be giving way to much cooler air during the last week of July. Half the solutions have this trough very deep........enough to cause much below temperatures if they are correct.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 29, 2019 12 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - July 14, 2019, 2:01 p.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:

Analysis,  starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:

Last Saturday: The potential for the upper level low to be in southwest Canada, shifts the heat ridges position downstream to be farther east than recent GFS solutions(which have had it the farther west and some cooling potential in the East)  but this model has a huge spread on whether there will be a ridge or trough in sw Canada.

Sunday: Deep trough Pacific NW to sw Canada to Gulf of Alaska, massive heat ridge downstream over much of the US. Good trough/ridge couplet in this amplifying pattern.

Monday: Deep trough/cut off low far sw Canada with a downstream heat ridge.......extremely impressive. This was the 0z model.  The last run of the US model took out all this heat and the other models added rains in week 2 which has taken out much of the bullish gusto from Sunday evening.

Tuesday: Where will the HUGE heat ridge be at the end of 2 weeks?

Wednesday: Massive heat ridge in week 2. Best location is the middle of the country on this model but uncertain.

Thursday: Massive heat ridge. Will it back up towards the west a bit late in week 2?

Friday: Potential for the massive heat ridge to back up west and allow some northern stream cooling to the east but solutions are going back and forth on this. It's a dry pattern for most of the Corn, regardless.

Saturday: This model also is not sure about the location of the dome of upper level high pressure, favoring the Rockies to points southeast with a potential downstream upper level trough in the Northeast.

Sunday: Upper ridging is rebuilding in Central Canada and connecting to downstream troughing below it that may extend all the way into the Upper Midwest/Northeast. This means MUCH cooler air masses from Canada. Heat ridge backs to the southwest of the position it will be in later this week.

By metmike - July 14, 2019, 2:04 p.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average). The daily analysis starts with the oldest and ends with the latest.

Last Thursday: Positive anomaly from Alaska, extending to the N.Rockies/Plains Weak negative anomaly in the Southeast. This would favor the warmth farther west but doesn't agree with other models. 

Friday: No extreme anomalies.

Saturday: No major anomalies, and slightly higher values in the east, suggesting

less potential cooling than yesterday. Makings of a potential, big heat ridge across the southern half of the country. 

Sunday: Slightly positive anomalies, except weaker in the Great Lakes which favor a cool Midwest. 

Monday: Biggest positive anomaly is in N.Canada.

Tuesday:  Modest positive anomaly across much of the country from west to east. Potential for a heat ridge to build in under this environment. Where will it be located? Rather than an amplified south to north heat ridge, this favors an elongated west to east heat ridge, especially in the south. 

Wednesday: Slight positive anomaly centered Pacific Northwest favors more heat west than east.

Thursday: This is just the average of the individual ensembles from above, so it shows the positive anomaly in the Northwest(with heat), with a weak negative anomaly in the Southeast and cooler weather vs average in the middle of the country. 

Friday: Positive anomaly gone in the West, leaving room for a more zonal flow and potential for heat to just move from west to east across the country but no big positive anomaly anywhere.

Saturday:  Negative anomaly along the sw Canadian coast, slight positive in a large area downstream..........where the heat ridge will be. 

Sunday: Negative anomaly Pacific NW to Southwest Canada connects with downstream heat ridge positive anomaly to the east with amplified pattern. 

Monday: Still the same negative anomaly in far sw Canada/Pacific nw with downstream heat ridge and positive anomaly in the center of the country. The last 6z US model obliterated the heat ridge in week 2 but appears to have been an outlier. 

Tuesday: Still the negative anomaly centered off the sw Coast of Canada with the downstream positive anomaly centered in the Upper Midwest associated with the huge heat ridge.

Wednesday: Same trough/negative anomaly West, huge ridge/positive anomaly east couplet. Ensures heat over most of the country.

Thursday: Anomalies not as strong but heat ridge dominates. Positive anomaly center  is a bit farther west today.

Friday: Still positive anomalies a bit farther west from earlier in the week and slightly cooler in the East with a wide spread in solutions. Dry pattern for the Midwest.

Saturday: Positive anomalies, especially the farther northwest you go. The weakest anomalies are from the Great Lakes to south they are around average in those locations. 

Sunday: Huge change in the positive anomaly center with it massively growing from yesterday in NorthCentral Canada. Weak negative anomaly below it in southeast Canada to  around the Great Lake links up to some potential northern stream cold fronts. 

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - July 14, 2019, 2:08 p.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Last Sunday: Negative AO and NAO. PNA wildly gyrating with a wide spread.......uncertainty on whether to have a ridge or trough in the West.

Monday: Negative AO and temp potential along the northern tier. Negative PNA bounces back close to 0 at the end of 2 weeks.

Tuesday: Fairly negative AO, also negative NAO. PNA which will be negative for awhile, increases to positive at the end of week 2.  Potential significant pattern change for the 2nd half of July, all depending on where the heat ridge sets up and the jet stream that tracks around it.

Wednesday: Negative AO and NAO, postive PNA favors heat west, cooler east. Rains easing up?

Thursday: AO and NAO just below 0. PNA above zero but fluctuating wildly and indecisively in week 2 from uncertainty about the location of the heat ridge that may be located in the West. 

Friday: AO and NAO increase to 0, PNA drops to near 0. Zonal flow?

Saturday: AO and NAO slightly negative. PNA gyrating wildly up and down on both sides of 0 in week 2 from uncertainty on whether there will be a deep trough or strong upper level ridge in the West. 

Sunday: Alot of movement. AO which is negative, increases during week 2 to zero.  NAO still has enough negative members that there "could be" a trough in the Northeast at the end of week 2. PNA is gyrating in week 2, mostly positive but down towards 0 at the end. with uncertainty on the location of the deep trough out west and downstream ridge.

Monday: Slightly negative AO. Negative NAO argues for potential cooling in the Northeast to upper Midwest, despite the heat ridge in the center of the country. PNA is wildly fluctuating still with uncertainty, going from positive to negative at the end.........based on the exact position of the deep upper level low pressure system just off the West Coast. 

Tuesday: Negative AO, fairly negative NAO suggests potential troughing and cooling in the Northeast. PNA fluctuating like crazy, near zero in 14 days.

Friday: AO near 0, NAO slightly negative, PNA drops from positive to negative. 

Saturday: AO close to 0, NAO a tiny bit negative, PNA drops from positive to negative like yesterday. 

Sunday: AO a smidgen below  0, PNA bouncing around but I think the noteworthy indices here is the negative NAO which will be associated with the trough in the East which causes the cooler weather later in July.

By metmike - July 14, 2019, 2:12 p.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

My comments below are usually made hours before the afternoon update, starting with the oldest comment. 

Friday: Rains should be drying up.  Big heat ridge in much of the country, location of it and heat being watched.

Saturday: Confidence continues to increase that we will be entering a mostly dry period for much of the Midwest, starting next week. How long will it last?  There will be some intense heat under a heat ridge but the location of that is uncertain.

Sunday: Increasing magnitude of the trough off the NW coast and downstream heat ridge couplet assures us of  major heat spreading across most of the country. A dome of this strength is likely to defeat rain making underneath it, regardless of wet soils.  Rains could still take place along the periphery/top of the heat ridge over the northern parts of the country.

Monday: Tons of heat for sure and dry in the 6-10 day, probably the 8-14 day(northern US will have rains over the top of the heat ridge) but the market has traded this hot/dry forecast for several days and dialed it in now. The question long will it last and will it become LESS hot/dry with time? The overnight models were already adding more rain in the 8-14 day period.

Tuesday: Widespread heat! How much rain? A good case can be made for rains to become more scarce with this type of pattern.

Wednesday: Widespread heat a given! How much rain is a huge question mark. This type of pattern can go either way, including a good case for rains to dry up. The heat will be drying soils out too.

Thursday: Widespread heat for sure again! How much rain and remnants of Barry early in the period are the big questions marks.

Friday: The NWS will be loaded with heat again but some solutions are going for late period cooling. This pattern is typically pretty dry for most of the Cornbelt so below precip should cover alot of terrain.

Saturday: The NWS will still have alot of heat but the later periods may be cooling off in the next few days in the Northern US. This is often a dry pattern historically but if northwest flow develops, weather systems/fronts can be fairly action on the eastern side of the heat ridge to the west.

Sunday: Confidence getting pretty high for the pattern change to cooler. This will definitely show up with  gusto in the 8-14 day forecasts for the next few days, then the 6-10 day, possibly catching some of it later today.  How much rain during that period. Good question. The air masses coming from Canada may not have deep moisture but this pattern in July can be dry or turn much wetter, depending on where upper level troughing sets up in the Midwest to points east.

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6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


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