Mike's weather trading rules
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Started by metmike - May 9, 2018, 11:07 a.m.

Here is something that I put together recently.

Weather Trading Rules by metmike:

Preparation means proper mindset every day. Not just some days but EVERY day.

#1 objective is not to make money, it's to avoid losing it

Write down all strategies ahead of trades

Take only the highest probability trades

Use well defined entry points and risks

Always consider support/resistance levels

List ALL known elements effecting the market

Use a powerful weather pattern change on weather models in a weather market to put on a new position or add to one.

If the weather changes back suddenly(in compelling fashion) don't be married to the old position. Either get out or put in a very tight stop. Consider putting on the opposite position without letting the bias of having the last one effect you. 


Only chase a decisive break out above resistance or below support when the weather pattern change is extreme and the opposite of its previous influence. False breakouts in weather markets are not unusual because the weather forecast often flip flops.

Accept a small loss/being wrong sometimes-don't try to get the money back immediately with an impulsive reaction/trade.

There will always be other trades if you miss this one but not if you lose all the money.

Discipline in trading-Discipline in all other realms

Have the confidence to pull the trigger aggressively at the right times! Being a tad early, often means a small but usually brief drawdown.........which can hit a tight stop. 

If you miss the ideal entry point or did not execute properly, or did and something unlucky happened, don't let it devastate your mindset. If the reasoning is still valid...............adjust the plan but not impulsively.

Bad luck and good luck do happen. Don't confuse good luck with skill or bad luck with lack of skill. 

Stay humble!

Comments
By metmike - May 9, 2018, 11:34 a.m.
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I may make this post a regular feature near the top of our posts every week/repost it.

My recent trading has been horrible. I turned 2K in 1992 into 600K in 2002, then had moderate success until 2011. 

MF Global got all  my money on Oct 31, 2011.

Much of this was eventually returned and much of it went into my new account. 

I started a new account with borrowed money at PFG Best and they really got my money in July 2012.

I had some success for a few of years with a new account using more borrowed money but took money out and did not grow the account like before. 

I had to borrow more money to pay bills because my trading income from the small account was not enough. A small account meant turning into a day trader with 4X the margin power vs the previous position trader.

My trading has turned into impulsive gambling, trying to beat the markets without using the criteria stated above. This has now become a habit. 

Bad habits are hard to break. If I had just started trading in the last 2 years, I would have given up, long ago, assuming that this is just not for me.

But I turned 2K into 600k in a decade sticking to my own trading rules. I was like a machine in those days. Never, ever veering outside the well defined rules. 

My only losses(big) were on positions held over a weekend..........because the weather changed and I could not get out.  

By mcfarm - May 9, 2018, 2:05 p.m.
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wow Mike, you have been busy....thankyou so much for all the trading tips and all the weather updates.....you have no idea how look forward to your views on both.....very valuble info

By metmike - May 9, 2018, 2:13 p.m.
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test

By metmike - May 9, 2018, 5:19 p.m.
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Thanks mcfarm!

Looking forward  to your future posts.


 How is planting going in central Indiana for you?

What a difference a year makes!


Without much rain the past 2 weeks, I would guess alot of corn is planted. 


By silverspiker - May 9, 2018, 8:41 p.m.
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THANK YOU SO MUCH MIKE FOR BEING HONEST, OPEN-MINDED AND WILLING TO SHARE YOUR WISDOM AND KNOWLEDGE !!!

... I LOOK FORWARD TO MANY DISCUSSIONS IN THE FUTURE NOW WITH THE CORRECT FORMAT SET IN PLACE...

LOVE,

THE SILVERSPIKER        

By silverspiker - May 9, 2018, 8:49 p.m.
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... ....AS OF LATE I HAVE BEEN BETTING 4 DIFFERENT HORSE RACING TRACKS OUT OF AUSTRALIA @ APPROX. 9 P.M. C.S.T. TIME ON TWINSPIRES.COM ....AND HAVE BEEN GETTING SOME PRETTY COLORFUL, DESCRIPTIVE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS BY THE TRACK ANNOUNCERS L.M.A.O. IN EACH DIFFERENT REGION OF THE COUNTRY (FOR THE WHEAT)...  

By metmike - May 9, 2018, 10:47 p.m.
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Silverspiker, you are one of my favorite guys here..........enthusiastic, sharing trades and very active.


Can you please use smaller letters and no caps. It doesn't bother me personally(as I know that it fits your personality perfectly)t but its considered shouting and for some people, very irritating. 

I want everybody to read your good stuff and many will not do that when its in shouting form.