Will/Where corn get planted?
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Started by tjc - May 21, 2019, 3:26 p.m.

MetMike

June 5 planting date is soon approaching north central Illinois farmers.

I see rain forecast for Sunday May 26.  It is going to take at least a week to dry.

IS THERE A WINDOW to plant?

Who will?  Who wont?

Central and northward Illinois, Wisconsin, and darn near all Indiana, most Ohio have little planted.  Who farms this year?

Thank you

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By metmike - May 22, 2019, 12:59 a.m.
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TJC,

I would love to help you on who is planting and where but somebody like bcb with contacts of actual farmers can better tell you what their fields/farms are like.


We've dried out a great deal here in SW Indiana and are doing some planting but I haven't been out to check. 

Tonights pop higher is likely from the huge band of  fairly heavy showers coming thru all of Illinois.   Looks like amounts in west/central IL, close to the Mississippi River were over 2 inches.

bowyer farms in that area. I wonder if he can tell us how much rain fell on his farm?


Later this week will feature the first decent heat(80+) for parts of  the Eastern Cornbelt, so those that are lucky enough to miss these rains will have some good drying rates. 

If we could just get this warm air/warm front to blow thru and get into the heat right away, things would be great. However, this current wave of shwrs is pushing the warm front back and when it tries to come north again tomorrow, another wave of shwrs is likely to form. 


By metmike - May 22, 2019, 5:49 a.m.
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It’s looking even more likely now what I was speculating yesterday morning, that the last gap higher was a short term exhaustion gap after we filled it on a Tuesday morning.

This, possibly because of the pattern change to less rain in week 2,,,,and of course spiking 50 c in a week.

The huge rains on Tuesday evening in Illinois caused 1 last buying but dying surge up after that momentum shift down on Tuesday morning.

 There is extreme volatility right now and more buying surges higher are possible from big rain events over planting delayed areas and even new highs.

By bowyer - May 22, 2019, 8:29 a.m.
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We've had over 2 inches since last friday. More last night. but I haven't checked amount yet, It was pretty heavy for awhile. Power was out for a couple hrs.  More chances this evening and maybe heavy rain tomorrow night. We are saturated.      Just checked....another 8/10 "

By mcfarm - May 22, 2019, 10:29 a.m.
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yes the same here, 8/10ths last nite, just pouring and 54 at the moment. Not quite the warm and dry stretch for the ECB to catch up that was predicted

By pll - May 22, 2019, 11:37 a.m.
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2.2 here ponds all full again around 30 % done around here I would guess. 

By metmike - May 22, 2019, 12:19 p.m.
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Thanks for those reports!

By bowyer - May 23, 2019, 9:40 a.m.
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Another 7/10 inch last night.....

By tjc - May 23, 2019, 9:57 a.m.
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  Prospects for PP seem more obvious each day.

  Discussion with Tenant yesterday.  Rain forecasted, off and on, accumulations predicted 5 of next 6 days.  That takes us to Wednesday May 29.  Needing a week, maybe only 6 days, leaves about 2 days to put in a corn crop by June 5.

  North central Illinois, north into Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio may NOT get Corn planted.

  What are your prospects in west central Illinois?

By Jim_M - May 23, 2019, 10:11 a.m.
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Very little field work being done in my corner of NE Ohio.  I was coming home one night and I saw 2 tractors working a field in the dark and pretty close to 10Pm in the evening.  Outside of that, most of the fields are just sitting.  Of course it is raining at the moment as well.  

By metmike - May 23, 2019, 11:32 a.m.
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Thanks guys, latest weather here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30785/

By bowyer - May 23, 2019, 1:23 p.m.
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Same here in WC Illinois . It's a swamp with more heavy rain predicted. Seed guy called this morning . Switched corn hybrids to earlier season. I will plant corn until at least june 12 if I get the chance, and that will be planting around mudholes and wet waterways.

By wglassfo - May 23, 2019, 5:13 p.m.
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We are currently having hot and windy

Rain this morning but by 3 P:M some were back at it

We will wait until 5 P:M and try to plant something

Remember we have no PP option

Just be thankfull for something

Most have zero corn planted

Rain expected in a day or two

I would think S. W Ont is 10% planted

This window may put us up to 20%

Lots of clay soils need sun and time

Nothing will be planted on those acres this week

I have never seen so many plant around wet spots, that should be dry, at this time of yr.

Everybody is pushing on wet soil conditions trying to plant something

We switched our corn to shorter day maturity, today

There goes the yield

By metmike - May 23, 2019, 6:50 p.m.
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Wayne, 

I hope you get alot planted. So how much lower yield  is the shorter season  corn? Maybe there's some data on that available. 

I know that you guys up there have to do it much earlier because you won't accumulate enough heating units for the corn to mature before the first frost.

Speaking of which, with this being the latest planted season in history for such a huge portion of the crop, unless we see consistent heat for the next 3 months which matures the corn crop fast, the crop will be at  higher risk for an early freeze.

Beans, which develop more based on daylight hours vs heat will be way behind, even with heat.

In 1995, I just checked my trading records, we had very late planting then a mid Sept freeze which did some serious damage to the beans that were still a couple of weeks away from maturity. Made a ton of money on that event. The freeze was at the start of the 3rd week in September. I'll have to check some weather data. Temps dropped into the mid 20's as far south as S.IL and S.IN, where we didn't get the beans planted until almost late June that year.