Hi there May 6th! Do something to make somebody feel GREAT today. Don't just think about it........do it. Then think about it.............and how you just made somebody's world a tiny bit greener.
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere. Heaviest rains in the 2 week forecast continue to be south of the Cornbelt-though the Western Cornbelt has a big rain event for several days this week(not as much East). Here on Monday we are still seeing the same shift southward in the wettest weather and more drying from the north. Starting this Friday, we should see a drier period, potentially 5+ days. ............but then it may turn wet again.
Look for the NWS 6-10 day forecast today to again be significantly drier than recent ones. It's after that period where tremendous certainty is. Todays guidance brings rains back from the west later in week 2............which would not leave enough time to catch up the planting.........so the late week 2 weather is adding a bit more bullishness back in.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Wind map Press down on this on the left with your cursor!
Current Jet Stream
| Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Big warm up on Monday! The departure map below is off at the moment.....missing the positive departures in the South.
Highs for days 3-7:
Very Warm South and East. Hot in the Southeast! To start the period.
Cool northern tier. Very chilly N.Plains.
This Cooler MUCH DRIER air starts plunging southeast on Thursday.
Above average south/east(at first), Below average northern tier, much below N.Plains to Upper Midwest. .....everything starts shifting southeast on Thursday with the cold moderating and drier air shutting down the significant rains.
Heating up Pacific Northwest with the new pattern/upper level ridge out there.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Weather maps for days 3-7 below
Active Front between very warm south/east and cool to chilly much farther north/northwest...............sweeps southeast on Thursday and finally ushers in much drier(cool) air late in the week!!!
Cool Canadian High Pressure comes in after that with reinforcing cold fronts that go well into next week.
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Another round of heavy rains in the Western Cornbelt/early-midweek(less in the East)..................then we dry out late this week!!!
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Excessive Rainfall Forecasts.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 12Z 04/22/19 - 12Z 04/23/19 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
| Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 04/23/19 - 12Z 04/24/19 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Severe Storm risk
Current Day 1 Outlook | Forecaster: Thompson/Squitieri Issued: 20/1624Z Valid: 20/1630Z - 21/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms |
Current Day 2 Outlook | Forecaster: Broyles Issued: 20/0546Z Valid: 21/1200Z - 22/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk |
Current Day 3 Outlook | Forecaster: Broyles Issued: 20/0711Z Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
Current Dew Points
Decent moisture(will be increasing Plains/W.Cornbelt) ready for the next system.
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
There is actually a small corridor/dry slot across parts of KS, E.NE into IA...........that area will get some of the heavier rains this week. The rest of the Cornbelt has had way too much rain. Should dry out, starting this Friday.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week). The last map is a week old, here on Sunday morning. Still too wet over a large area with more rains this week, planting stays stalled out in many places not planted yet for awhile.
Widespread drying should commence late this week!
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Currently, there is 0% of the Cornbelt/Midwest with drought. There is no place even slightly dry there.
The market will be keying on precip forecasts for planting concerns for the next month.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The ideal time frame for planting corn is the next 2 weeks. The market will be scrutinizing the 2 week forecasts every day. The drying we've been mentioning has progressed now to the end of week 1, thru the early parts of week 2. After that???
This operational GFS model product is updated every 12 hours. The GFS is updated every 6 hour but this product is only updated for the 0Z and 12Z run.
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:
Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past. This is an end of week 2 forecast!
Last Friday: Same northern stream and southern stream battle with a very wet period until we get well into week 2, then great uncertainty.
Saturday: The mean/average map below looks zonal because the average of some opposite extremes cause it to be that way. Less southern stream on the individual solutions today though and less threat for heavy rains now in week 2 and just afterwards.
Saturday: 12z run at the top here, looks a bit wetter than the 0z run below.
Sunday: Lots of uncertainty but this mornings mean shows the upper level ridge in the Southeast more prominent for the 2nd solution in a row. IF there is an upper level ridge in that position, the chances of very wet weather in the mid section of the country go way up. That feature will act in tandem with an upper trough upsteam in the Southwest to steer a southern stream aimed at locations between them, along with southerly winds on the backside of the high transporting juicy Gulf air northward.
Monday: Similar to yesterday for the mean/average..............wetter than average but some extreme differences in individual solutions. That wide spread causes uncertainty.
Tuesday: Doesn't look as wet to me..........with the southern stream and heaviest rains aimed father south today and well south of the Corbelt for the really heavy stuff.
Wednesday: Looks pretty wet on this model, especially south.
Thursday: Still wet BUT more zonal flow vs southwest flow which has the potential to dry things out more......at least end the threats of excessive rain events as we get more progression.
Friday: The trend from yesterday continues with several solutions breaking the long lived connection from the southern stream to the Plains. This will be modulated by the upper level ridge in the Southeast US. The more the ridge weakens, the better chances become to dry out and for sure it would result in a more progressive flow.
Saturday: This model keeps it wet with the active southern stream aimed toward the Plains, into, especially the S.Midwest.
Sunday: After the break from rain from late week 1 to early week 2, this model sees the southern stream taking over again as we turn pretty wet again, especially Plains to S.Midwest. Some of the solutions that don't bring the southern stream back, have a cut off northern stream low which, at the least makes it very chilly and possibly causes lighter rains.........this is for the end of week 2 period below which is very uncertain right now.
Monday: Wow, big spread in how to handle the southern stream. Half of the members are extremely bullish and wet. This is the wettest model and this is the end of week 2............which follows a dry period leading up to it.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on May 21, 2019 00 UTC
0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:
Analysis, starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:
Last Friday: For sure a very wet period leading up to late week 2, which is the period for these maps. Will it continue?
Saturday: This model still looks pretty wet late in week 2 on many of the solutions.
Sunday: Majority look wet. Biggest disparity, especially in the East.
Monday: Looks pretty wet with an upper level ridge in the Southeast and trough in the West with some southern stream..........on many solutions.
Tuesday: Much drier today. Not as many solutions with much southern stream. Almost half of them shut it down completely.
Wednesday: Half of the solutions have a very wet southern stream, especially in the S.Plains. The ensemble mean for the European model, however is MUCH drier than this.
Thursday: Upper level low in Southeast Canada a dominant feature on many solutions means chilly weather in the Northeast to Midwest..........cutting off the deep moisture so precip not as heavy there.
Friday: Solutions all over the place today for late week 2. Some turn drier, some stay wet.
Saturday: This model dries us out. Possible disconnect of the southern stream with a cutoff low in the Southwest/West
Sunday: Wide spread in solutions. Some build the upper level ridge in the Southeast again with an upper level trough/low in the Southwest anchoring the strong and wet southern stream and moisture gushing north. Others have a different solution, some with a decent northern stream. Great uncertainty late week 2, after a dry period beforehand.
Monday: Not as gung ho with the southern stream aimed at the Plains/Midwest as the Canadian model has been the last 2 days but it still starts turning wetter from the southwest again late week 2. It will depend on where the upper level ridge sets up. In the Southeast again..........and it turns wet again.
Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above)
Last Friday: Positive anomaly in N/C Canada and negative anomaly in Southeast Canada is a cold couplet dynamic for much of the Midwest and East. How much southern stream moisture pushes into that is not clear late in week 2. The northern stream could suppress the deeper moisture pretty far southwest.
Saturday: Anomalies are weaker today. Still the negative one Southeast Canada, so chilly in the Upper Midwest/Northeast.
Sunday: Strong positive anomaly in the East today that was not there yesterday suggests very wet Plains/Midwest with potent southern stream aimed in that direction. There were a couple of extreme individual solutions that contributed to the positive anomaly though, so the majority don't concur.
Monday: Positive anomaly in the East not as strong but the negative anomaly in the Southwest is significant for modulating the southern stream which should be aimed toward the Plains/Midwest.
Tuesday: No positive anomaly in the East today, so less ridging there, so the negative anomaly in the Southwest doesn't have the couplet connection to steer moisture as strongly northward into the Plains/Midwest. Negative anomaly in Southeast Canada should help steer some northern stream chill south of the border.
Wednesday: Positive anomaly over the Great Lakes today. Still a negative anomaly over the Southwest.
Thursday: Positive anomaly over Northern Canada good for cool northern stream connection below it. Still a negative anomaly over the southwest associated with the southern stream...........which may get suppressed a bit by the northern stream.
Friday: Still a positive anomaly over Northern Canada that favors a cold connection to the south, into the US but its shifting farther a bit northwest late in week 2(that might not mean a lot so far out). Still a negative anomaly in the Southwest which keeps the southern stream potential alive. Upper level ridging in the Southeast or not will determine that.
Saturday: Positive anomaly in the high latitudes connects the northern stream to some chilly air which goes south of the US/Canadian border. Negative, southern stream anomaly in the Southwest associated with the heavy rains may get left behind.
Sunday: Positive anomaly in high latitudes still connects with weak negative anomaly in the Northeast US favorably to send chilly air south. Southern stream upper level negative anomaly in the Southwest and potential positive anomaly in the Southeast could re instate the big rain making mechanism, especially in the Plains to S.Midwest. This map is at the end of week 2.
Monday: The positive anomaly in the high latitudes continues as the main/obvious anomaly and it connects with a weak negative anomaly in far Southeast(a decent couplet) to favor northern stream flow directed south, into the US. Still a negative anomaly in the Southwest with southern stream potential...........that can be asserted with gusto in the Plains eastward if an upper level ridge builds in the Southeast again..........where we have a weak positive anomaly today.
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast 
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Monday: NAO dips negative and is a factor in potential cooling in the Upper Midwest/Northeast.
Tuesday: Negative NAO will steer some cooler air into the Northern Tier. Also a negative PNA, so the cool air will not go to far south.
Wed: Negative NAO will brings cooler northern stream energy/air masses into the Northern tier. How far south can it divert the potent southern stream? The cool air from the north, will probably be overlapped by the moisture coming up from the south in the battle zone between the northern stream and southern stream.
Thursday: Negative NAO and cool along the northern tier. Also a bit of a negative AO and positive PNA can potentially assist in that cooling......during week 2 but tremendous uncertainty late in that period.
Friday: Negative AO and especially negative NAO strongly favor chilly air pushing south out of Canada. PNA increases late in the period that favors that, with potential to shut down the moisture.
Saturday: AO recovers back to near 0. The pretty negative NAO, bounces back to 0 at the end of 2 weeks. PNA increases a great deal into positive territory at the end of 2 weeks.
Sunday: AO around 0, NAO rebounds from negative to near 0 at the end of week 2 and PNA turns positive.
Monday: AO now drops below 0. NAO recovers from negative territory to near 0, same with PNA.
Tuesday: AO drops well below 0. NAO recovers from negative to near zero, same with PNA.
Thursday: Solidly negative AO and NAO forbode some late season chilly weather south of the Canadian border. PNA close to 0.
Friday: Still solidly negative AO and NAO tell us that cold air from higher latitudes in Canada will be flushed south into the middle latitudes, south of the US border. This moderates on these indices late in week 2 as they increase a bit. PNA is near 0 still.
Saturday: Still negative AO/NAO and likely modulating chilly air masses tracking well south into the US. Also suppressing the southern stream and drying things out some. PNA near 0.
Sunday: Very negative AO, NAO negative but increases some late.........so it should be chilly. PNA around 0 but increases a tad late week 2.
Monday: Negative AO and NAO, strong enough, with the pattern to flush air from high latitudes in Canada, southward to mid latitudes, farther south in the USA. So cool weather continues thru week 2. PNA a tad positive.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Friday: We might see additional drying from the north on future forecasts.
Saturday: Yes, we should see less rain coming up in the extended forecasts.
Sunday: Still looking for them to take out more rain in the 6-10 day.........but it might start
returning from the west during the 2nd part of the 8-14 day. Temps remain very cool.
Monday: Staying very cool with absolute certainty on this aftenoons updated NWS maps. Looking for them to continue with less rain in the 6-10 day but a case can be made to possibly increase rain again in the 8-14 day for some areas. Rain amounts late in week 2 are the huge question right now.
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability | |
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
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Previous discussion:
By tjc - May 5, 2019, 4:27 p.m.
MetMike
Thank you for detailed weather recap.
What is (MetMike)// the trade going to do? Sell the open? Buy a Sunday night dip? Wait?
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Sunday
By metmike - May 5, 2019, 7:53 p.m.
Hi tjc,
For sure I'm not buying. The weather pattern has turned bearish.
With an expected downside gap lower on the open, I may not be able to be short from the additional prices I'd hoped for.
But glad to have covered longs on Thursday and not being long right now.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/29428/
We gave up too much price premium too fast on the spike lower here and weather did not get THAT bearish.
tjc,
This is for you
By metmike - May 6, 2019, 5 p.m.
Just to review what happened, because there is confusion and also because tjc has been asking for what I planned to do trading(I almost never say in advance what my trades are going to be for several reasons, one of which is that I don't do as well if I am trading somebody else's money..........and knowing that others will want to follow is like that to me, another is that I am often in and out of the market fast, sometimes minutes in natural gas based on a change in a model that causes a knee jerk reaction to the price, which is impossible to pass on here, another is that I'm still recovering from having all my money stolen twice, once in Oct 2011, then again in July 2012).
I do encourage everyone else to share trades and I will do so with certain position trades and always provide the needed weather guidance that makes it pretty clear what direction I think the market is going based on weather........which, like the last 2 days, was clearly negative/bearish.
Just to review the weather.
So the first 11-12 days or so in the forecast are bearish/drier. Starting at day 12 is when it turns wetter.
This was extremely frustrating to trade......and I couldn't trade it at all. This is a shorting set up because of better weather. If this forecast verifies, there should be some selling pressure based on planting catching up............and it will if we dry out but its tricky. Ordinarily, last nights open would have been the time to get very short...........but the China news caused the massive gap lower in tandem with the much more weather and messed that up.
When the China news turned positive today, the markets recovered..............when, ordinarily drier weather might have pressured prices from higher levels.
We should note that, even though the bearish effect o
Just glad that I was already leaning drier on Friday and stopped buying/covered longs on Thursday and didn't get killed on the open last night.
Also, planting delay weather scares are often the WORST to try to trade because of timing and the markets unpredictable reactions.
Which makes the next 2 days impossible to know. If heavy rains are falling in rain delayed areas, and funds deciding to cover we might still go higher if extended maps really bring in more rain after the dry spell.
The dry spell of a week seems pretty likely but if that suddenly started to shrink in a big way, then it would be a strong buying signal using weather.
But there is no denying that this week long stretch of dry weather coming up, even with cool temperatures was NOT on the markets trading menu late last week and is almost what the doctor ordered(temps are too cool).
I would be very surprised if the dry forecasts continue(rain not added) if corn makes new highs.
Now its very tricky. Is the market, loaded with massive, record in fact, fund shorts that might be nervous and in short covering mode, realizing that if rains come back in or Trump makes a deal with China, they have tremendous upside risk from here? With the recent pattern and talk of the similarities to 1993 and the entire growing season ahead funds may not want this upside risk.
For sure we have taken out alot of rain from the forecast compared to late last week and that's a bearish factor and the corn price closing around 6c lower was justified from that factor alone.
Heavy rain risk, for something like the 5th day in a row has continued to shift southward and has been even farther south than the Cornbelt since Saturday.
