Were trading under the half of last weeks range 412.75. BUT the 4 week avg is 404.

Little disappointing being lower for the week with the weather we have had. Sunday night Monday surprised a few traders.

Funds long no bull news to feed them. Last year we top at 417.25 in April and we have a double top at 416.50. I'm leaning to lower right now.

In much of Mn. Our fields fields are still 95percent snow covered after receiving 10" - 23" wet snow leaving us in a similar situation as we had 1993 only this year our soils are still mostly frozen. We"ll need exceptionally warm weather immediately to even think about planting the latter part of May which will result in lower yields and poor quality. We've been thru this before and some may opt for the prevented plant option if it gets late enough as a way to lose less money by not producing at all.

The market had been trading cold, wet and snow for a month. 

These last 2 snowstorms were buy the rumour, sell the fact price action events. 

Record cold and snow on weather maps and forecasts is what got CZ to its double top highs just over $4.16 early last week. 

It caused HRS to rally and top.

Earlier in the year, all the markets were rallying on the widespread drought and La Nina increasing odds of it lasting into the growing season. Big short covering in wheat and corn from large spec funds that had near record shorts was some major fuel to ignite buying to the tune of hundreds of thousands of contracts by this group.

After the drought was wiped out in most places outside the S.Plains, cold and snow were bullish because its meant planting will not be early this year. 

After they covered all those shorts, they went long. Fundamentals in corn have turned pretty bullish after being extremely bearish the previous 2 years.  Funds are probably going to stay long corn and beans well into the growing season.

With regards to weather in the Upper Midwest, the pattern on weather models is shifting to much warmer and drier. It's still just mid April.  A few weeks of average weather and the crop will get planted in timely fashion..........not early but by mid May.

Extended guidance has around average temps and precip, though it might get wet later in week 2. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

Should we turn wet in week 2,  then we will delay planting a bit longer and the market will have bullish ammo for a bit more aggressive buying. With the planted acres down and stocks expected to fall and the funds liking the long side, any adverse weather could serve as fuel for rallies until the crop is made.

The crop report this past Monday showed corn just 3% planted.........but the average was just 6%. We will fall farther behind on next Monday's report but the market doesn't care about how much of the crop is planted on April 23rd or even April 30th, the report after that.

What matters are expectations for how much of the crop is planted by early May. We can be very much behind on April 30th, then have very warm and dry weather to end April and start May and catch up in 10 Days. Farmers and their equipment/planters are extremely efficient and fast. They can plant most of the crop in just 2 weeks, given optimal weather to dry out soils. 

I'd be all for building fires to warm up our chilly 23F mornings that turn into 45F days that do very little to melt or thaw our snow covered fields. Grave diggers are still finding 2 feet of frost and have to still use ground heaters to thaw the ground before digging. Just like 1993 around here with respect to moisture but much colder air and with frozen soil.

Market is looking ahead to much warmer and mostly dry weather. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

However, this very chilly pattern has been entrenched for a very long time and much more tenatious than any model forecast.

Almost every model has tried to warm it up too much and has tried to change the pattern to stop these Arctic blasts from coming down prematurely. They have continually missed new Arctic blasts, especially in the week 2 period. 

The new European model has another decent shot of cold around day 7, a tad stronger than the previous run, then potentially another blast of near record cold at around day 11, especially the Upper Midwest........which was not there on the previous run. Then maybe another one at the end of week 2.

At the same 11/12/13 day time frame, the GFS has an area of near record warmth spreading from the S.Plains into the Midwest.

The European model keeps that heat bottled up to points farther southwest as it emphasizes the northern stream that has dominated since at least early March. 

The Canadian model has upper ridging in the Southeast pumping in very warm moist air in week 2 and is actually pretty wet but with much above temperatures. 

metmike, ewave still has corn running past 4 and beans running past 11 so wet cold weather is going to have to drive it higher

E Wave is that a relationship to the famous Capt. Kirk

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/987369128225800193/photo/1

more on the next wave of weather

Cool and cold predicted for the bulk of the Corn Belt for 90 days. Many are taking a closer look at the prevented planting option.

http://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2018-04-19-may-july-temperature-outlook

"Many are taking a closer look at the prevented planting option."

It's April 21st and the last planting progress report showed that we normally only have 5% of the corn crop planted(we were just 3%).........and Minnesota normally has 3% planted and will not get anything planted until May this year.

I compiled some stats for corn planting into the 2nd week of May, going back to 2000 which is when planting delays become significant. 2013 was the slowest by far.On May 5, 2013, only 12% of the crop was planted and 28% on May 12, 2013 vs the average of 65% for May 12th.

This Monday, April 23, we will get an updated USDA planting report,  then we have reports  on April 30, May 7, May 14.
If the weather does NOT turn warm and dry between now and then,  it gets real interesting.

If it is cold but fairly dry(most likely the next 10 days) then suddenly heats up and stays dry, we are in good shape to plant quickly by mid May most places. 

So what if this doesn't happen........no turn to warm and dry?  The farthest behind and the slowest ever is 28% on May 12, 2013. For comparison, the previous year of 2012 had 85% planted(the fastest ever)...........but we were in a drought, so better to plant late because its too wet/cod vs having a drought that allows record early planting.
We may NOT be trading drought this year for a long time. Warm and dry were very bearish on Friday.Corn, like it usually does around this time of year(unless there is a drought) rolls over ahead planting. But planting, though not perfect every year progresses in April, sometime slow, sometimes fast. This year, almost no planting in April but we traded that and dialed that into prices earlier this month.

Now the market is trading good planting in early May.

Delay that to later and the market will go back up. Keep that or improve that and we can go lower(on the planting concern part of the trading)

So what is the average planting pace coming up?

 On April 23rd the average is 18% and we will have, maybe 6% done?  On April 30th, the average jumps to 34%, we might only have 9% done.On May 7, the average is 52%. If we stay with this pattern and or have more precip than expected, we might be around the slowest ever at 12%.

However, the market thinks we will be catching up fast right about then. Much of the planting will not show up yet on that report.

Warm and dry with the high May sun angle and we can catch up fast after that............but if it stays wet and especially wet/cold then we will be behind the 28% slowest ever on the May 14, 2018 planting pace.

This is what matters. How much corn will be planted on May 14th, over  3 weeks from now. 

As that time frame gets closer and we have a better idea on the weather, the market will add or subtract corn acres accordingly.

Still way behind on May 14 with wet/cold in the forecast and  the market will be subtracting a few million acres from corn planted acres. Corn will spike much higher a couple of weeks before then, on forecasts for wet/cold to continue. The market will not wait to see the actual planting number from the USDA on May 14. In late April/early May it will already be placing bets/dialing in prices for that number.

Planting delay rallies almost never last long because every Spring, it eventually dries out sooner or later and the market will be assuming that..........even if corn doesn''t get planted until late May.

And when that does not happen, we lose acres and production and prices go up for a short while until whatever is going to be planted........is planted.

Then we trade the weather for the planted crop.

Here is the latest planting progress report from last Monday:

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-04-16-2018.txt

Not bashing metmike but I feel like I'm in a classroom. If traders and farmers don't see the light with the weather there both in the wrong business. 

Planting as we all should know goes from south to north.

Delta and Tx in fine shape. Tx. corn I've seen looks great.

There is planting going on in C.IL today and more to start tomorrow.

Last yr. mcfarm talked about to wet in IN. OH. Kentucky. Eastern belt in way better shape to plant this yr.

Right now its about weather an all re ready to roll on the days the window is open. Corn action feels heavy and waits to test the lows that early morning China talked tariffs. IMHO