Weather Wednesday
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Started by metmike - April 10, 2019, 11:38 a.m.

Welcome April 10th!   Do something to make somebody happy today. Don't just think about it. Then think about it.............and how you just made somebody's world a tiny bit greener. 

Our local chess tournament last month got some great coverage. I'm extraordinarily proud of the kids and also the adults that helped run this event:

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere. Big snow from N/C Plains to Upper Midwest mid week!!! See snow forecasts down several maps.............. next big rain maker MUCH farther south.

Here are the latest hazards across the country.

Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     


Wind map    Hit this with your cursor: 

US Weather Current Temperatures Map

US Weather Wind Chill Map

      Wind map     Press down on this on the left with your cursor!




Current Jet Stream

Winter Weather

Image result for image of snowflakes

Snowfall the next 2 days:

Forecast Hour:  048
Image URL:





Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

By metmike - April 10, 2019, 11:40 a.m.
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Warmest weather of the year today and Thurday!


By metmike - April 10, 2019, 11:42 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Chilly end to this week, thru next Monday........then moderating!

By metmike - April 10, 2019, 11:43 a.m.
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Average Temperature anomalies for days 3-7:

Cold Upper Midwest/N/C Plains surges south and east late in the week!

By metmike - April 10, 2019, 11:46 a.m.
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Weather maps for days 3-7 below

Huge midweek storm is over when this period starts..........................then dry northwest half of the Midwest for a week.

New very wet southern stream system this weekend from the Ohio Valley southward..

By metmike - April 10, 2019, 11:47 a.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.

Heavy band N/C.Plains/U.Midwest (much of it snow) coming up the next 2 days,

Heaviest much farther south......up to the Ohio River Valley starting late this week.

Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - April 10, 2019, 11:48 a.m.
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 Severe Storm Outlook


Current Convective Outlooks
Updated: Mon Apr  8 12:48:09 UTC 2019 (2h 51m ago)
        Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Thompson/Leitman
Issued: 08/1243Z
Valid: 08/1300Z - 09/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk        
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Dial
Issued: 08/0549Z
Valid: 09/1200Z - 10/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Dial
Issued: 08/0733Z
Valid: 10/1200Z - 11/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook       



By metmike - April 10, 2019, 11:49 a.m.
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Current Dew Points

Air has moistened up a bit.  

Current Dew Points


Latest radar loop

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop


Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)


Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image


    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      



Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 


Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

By metmike - April 10, 2019, 11:52 a.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

VERY wet but its been drying out(too dry in the south).................with lots of precip coming up in some places but not as wet today in the 2 week forecast(for the 5th day in a row) for some places compared to last week.

Potential drier pattern change in week 2?

      Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

By metmike - April 10, 2019, 11:52 a.m.
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Currently, there is 0%  of the Cornbelt/Midwest with drought. There is no place even slightly dry there.

The South has been really drying out recently but heavy rains coming up should wipe out some of the dryness in  that area. 

 The market will be keying on precip forecasts for planting concerns for the next month.

            Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - April 10, 2019, 11:59 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z ensembles from WEDNESDAY:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:

Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past:

Last Monday: Still wet as we go into mid April. Will the upper level ridge in the Southeast be strong enough to keep the flow from being progressive? Any amplification of the ridge or upper level lows/troughs in the southern stream will result in some excessive rains. 

Tuesday: Very wet from the southern stream. Looking at the potential for excessive rain events in the S.Plains and points east/northeast again.....depending on how stout the ridge in the Southeast is.

Wednesday: Much drier for this ensemble model and run at the 2 week time frame. Also cooler in the Midwest/East. Will ridge West/trough East couplet in Canada to Upper Midwest take over and suppress the southern stream?

Thursday: Yesterday, the Canadian ensembles were the only model to look much drier. Today, they are much wetter and back to the old solution, so yesterday was a fluke. In fact, they and all the other models are the wettest yet for week 2 of any forecasts going back some time. Potent southern stream and cut off low potential with excessive rains from the S.Plains to point east/northeast. Still several members that like yesterdays colder and drier solution(especially Upper Midwest) with a stronger northern stream. 

Friday: The mean looks more zonal today for both the southern and northern stream. This results in milder temperatures in the north and less precip most places, especially with the less amplified southern stream.

Saturday: Less zonal but the upper level low/trough from the southern stream on numerous solutions, backs up so far west that it results in a warmer and especially drier Midwest.

Sunday: Wide disparity on solutions, howeverer: 1. The mean is much more zonal and drier than the previous one and most of them last week! 2. Temperatures will be mild unless the northern stream amplifies and/or look like a minority of solutions show.

Monday: The mean/average is zonal but many solutions don't look like the average, they have an amplification of the pattern somewhere(possibly just transient). Majority are not nearly as wet as last week. No major cold intrusions. 

Tuesday: The mean is zonal and mild but the flow could still be fairly active......just not featuring excessive rain events because of being progressive.

Wednesday: Very wide spread in solutions from very strong and wet southern stream dominant(a slight majority) to dry and chilly northern stream, new pattern. The Canadian ensembles is by far the wettest for late week 2 as the other models are much drier today.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Apr 25, 2019 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - April 10, 2019, 12:07 p.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:

Analysis,  starting with a week ago:

Last Saturday:  Active Southern stream. Heaviest rains, possible flooding from S.Plains east/northeastward.

Sunday: Active and wet with southern stream dominant.

Monday: Wettest weather in the S.Plains.

Tuesday: Wettest weather in the S.Plains but now with the potential of an upper level low in the Northeast, a possible northern stream and cooler temperatures in mid April.

Wednesday: Southern stream looks more active on this model vs the Canadian , especially the 6z run after this one below.

Thursday: GFS ensembles continue VERY wet from a powerful southern stream.  Southern Plains to points east/northeast have the highest potential for excessive rains.

Friday: This model still has a pretty potent southern stream and deep upper level trough on many solutions.......favored towards the west.

Saturday:  Not as wet with less upper level ridging in the Southeast.

Sunday: Not as wet again, with regards to the threat of excessive rain events,  without much ridging in the Southeast. However, It still could be quite wet in some places and very active.

Monday: Still not nearly as wet as last week with several solutions taking the southern stream out as a major factor.

Tuesday: Some solutions shift to a much drier pattern change.  Some have some northern stream flow. Uncertainty for late week 2, especially late.

Wednesday:  Still much disagreement but most take away the wet southern stream connection and dry things out in the Midwest.  A few bring in some potential northern stream connection and a decent slug of cold.

By metmike - April 10, 2019, 12:11 p.m.
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Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above)

Last Tuesday: Anomalies changing quite a bit. A new positive one in Northwest Canada across Alaska(another around Greenland) with the positive anomaly in the Northeast that was the main one last week, being replaced with a negative anomaly in Southeast Canada. This suggests the increasing potential for chilly weather in mid April. It could also dry things out in the Midwest by suppressing the southern stream farther south, into the S.Plains. 

Wednesday: New anomaly centers continue from yesterday. Positive Northwest Canada to Alaska, negative downstream to the southeast. Should mean cooler mid April weather. Will it also dry things out in the Upper Midwest/N.Plains and suppress the southern stream south? Watch the upper level ridge in the Southeast. If it holds, it will be very wet in the S.Plains. 

Thursday: Anomalies in the high latitudes, N.Alaska across the N.Pole to NE.Canada and negative anomolies in the S.Plains increase chances for cold in Canada to travel south but the big story is going to be southern stream energy.........and where its aimed. This will be defined by the negative anomaly in the vicinity of the S.Plains and positive anomaly in the far Southeast(which pumps up the moisture and blocks the progression of the large scale upper level low to its west). How wet it gets will be influenced by how amplied these features are. 

Friday: High latitude positive anomaly is undercut by Pacific flow/disconnected from a downstream negative anomaly which would establish a couplet for moving cold air south. Still a negative anomaly in the Southern Plains and vicinity associated with the Southern Stream.

Saturday: Southern stream negative anomaly shifting west of Plains,  slight positive anomaly in the Midwest suggests potentially much drier....and warmer.

Sunday:  No big anomaly centers to key off of. Slightly positive in the east and negative in the Plains still suggests at least some rain. 

Monday: Weak anomalies from the mean, much because the disagreements average out.

Tuesday:  Positive anomaly growing a tad along the West Coast. Slight negative anomaly in Southeast Canada. If this amplifies, it helps shut down the big precip events. 

Wednesday: The noted anomaly from yesterday, though still not impressive has a smideon more amplitude today.....which keeps my forecast for a drier pattern change in week 2 valid. If this leads to a ridge west/trough east couplet, it would also cool things down in the East.............and potentially much cooler in the Midsection on some guidance.

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - April 10, 2019, 12:12 p.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Last Saturday: AO really plunges now, to moderately negative. NAO to around 0 from positive and PNA a bit positive. Keep this up with gusto and the mid April forecast might turn cooler but we're a long ways from that and they indices are not as powerful for northern stream insight/affect on the US in the warmer months.

Sunday: AO drops to negative, not as much as yesterday..............less cold threat.  NAO has a very wide spread on both sides of 0. PNA slightly positive.

Monday: AO a bit negative. NAO drops to near 0. PNA a tad positive. Weak.

Tuesday: Stronger signals today. AO more negative......and favorable for cold air to be flushed from high latitudes, towards the mid latitudes. NAO now negative........more favorable for penetrating of cold into the Midwest/Northeast. PNA is slightly positive and increasing which also assists with those indices in increasing some chilly risks in mid April and beyond.

Wednesday: AO goes negative much sooner and in week 1, then drifts to less negative at the end of 2 weeks. NAO spikes to negative then recovers to less negative at the end of week 2. PNA slightly positive. Turning cooler next week.

Thursday: AO plunges to VERY low values next week with the NAO also diving much lower into negative territory. This, in tandem with much cooler forecasts as air from higher latitudes makes its way into middle latitudes. These indices bounce a bit at the end of 2 weeks. If this were January, it would be pretty bullish for ng. The PNA is a tad positive. 

Friday: Negative AO bounces up towards zero near the end of 2 weeks, just like the NAO. PNA is a tad positive.

Saturday: Negative AO and NAO with chilly weather late week 1/early week 2, then they recover towards zero and temperatures warm.   PNA.close to 0.

Sunday: AO, NAO and PNA all close to 0 in 2 weeks.

Monday: AO and PNA near 0, NAO slightly negative.......not major factors. 

Tuesday: AO and NAO a tad negative. PNA near 0. 

Wednesday. AO, NAO and PNA all near 0.

The link below, now has the PNA index added at the bottom:

By metmike - April 10, 2019, 12:13 p.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Updated early afternoon. It has been getting less wet, especially Upper Midwest for this period the last few days. Not shown on these NWS maps but the models and my forecast are drier than last week. 

Wedneday: Will the 8-14 day NWS prediction finally start to dry out this afternoon? Maybe not but some of the tools they use for guidance suggests they could get much colder again in the midsection. 

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - April 10, 2019, 12:14 p.m.
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Spring outlook from the NWS.

This is a HUGE deal to the grains, especially corn because planting, ideally can get going by the end of April and needs to be done in May.

 Many traders/forecasters are drawing similarities to 1993 and the historic flooding of that year because that was the last time conditions were like this. 

Each year is different. One thing is certain. The market will NOT be concerned about drought during planting and the early parts of the growing season. Surface and subsoil moisture is completely recharged almost everywhere.

This map depicts the locations where there is a greater than 50 percent chance of major, moderate or minor flooding during March through May, 2019.

By metmike - April 10, 2019, 12:15 p.m.
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Previous discussions:       

         Re: Weather Friday            


                By WxFollower - April 5, 2019, 12:43 p.m.            

It is getting quite dry in much of the SE US. So, rain is needed. Upcoming warmth will exacerbate the problem.


                      Re: Re: Weather Friday            


                By metmike - April 5, 2019, 7:53 p.m.            



I've noted how dry that its been recently in the South and it's too dry now in a growing area(I just updated the drought monitor map above).

The pattern coming up could take care of that quickly if the zone of heavy rains is far enough east. 



                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Sunday            


                By mcfarm - April 8, 2019, 10:25 a.m.            


metmike, big talk of a 12 to 16 inch snow fall coming to the upper midwest......are you predicting th same?


                       By metmike - April 8, 2019, 11:16 a.m.            


Yes mcfarm!

Looks like SD to MN will have the heaviest snow. Thanks much for pointing this out.





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                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Tuesday            




                By metmike - April 9, 2019, 4:01 p.m.            


                                Like                Reply            





                Re: Weather Tuesday            


                By cliff-e - April 9, 2019, 5:48 p.m.            


Looks like another "Bomb Cyclone" Winter storm headed for Minnesnowta with up to 30" snow and 50 mph wind gusts. On April 14 2018 we had 23" wet heavy snow that delayed planting...this time around we have wetter soils with only half of our Fall tillage completed so many of us will consider the prevented plant option if this storm comes to fruition.




                Re: Re: Weather Tuesday            


                By metmike - April 9, 2019, 10:50 p.m.            


Thanks cliff,

I remember those poor early Spring planting conditions for Minnesota last year and you stating the same thing about your intentions for the prevent planting option well into May.

I will make the same prediction as last year............that you get your crop planted, 90% chance.

How did last years similar snowstorm and cold/wet early Spring affect the planting? On June 3, 2018, 98% of the Minnesota corn was planted which was actually 2% ahead of the average for that date..........thanks to some very warm/dry weather in much of  May.

Temps were more than 6 degrees above normal for the entire month of May last year!!

How did the late snowstorm and cold/wet Spring last year effect development of the MN crop last year thru pollination?

USDA August `13, 2018 crop condition: 77% Good/Excellent in MN. 2% poor.

Crop yield estimate by state after pollination:


It's not likely that May will turn as warm and dry as it did last year which allowed for the crop to be planted quickly but each year is different. Hopefully this will be another great one for you!

It really is getting harder and harder to hurt these crops with increasing CO2 and beneficial climate change. Hopefully you'll have another bin buster or close to it again even if early planting is not going to be in the cards for the 2nd year in a row. By historical standards, we are way overdue for some major adversity during the  growing season but climate change has changed those historical odds for adversity from drought during the growing season(the biggest risk to crops) to being lower than before. 


                      Re: Weather Tuesday            


                By cliff-e - April 10, 2019, 6:47 a.m.            


It's now April 2019...our rivers have been at flood stage for nearly 3 weeks already and our soil profile is definitely wetter as we now hear our basement sump pump running this year vs. last year when it never ran during the April 2018 floods. And we're still hearing of producers without operating credit for this year due to projected negative cash flows. 


By metmike - April 10, 2019, 12:25 p.m.
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Thanks cliff,

Yep, all those facts are true about how the weather HAS(past tense) affected your soils and this current snow IS current tense about to affect things in a huge negative way. The bearish USDA report for corn yesterday didn't help any either. Sorry that things are so messed up for you right now. 

My forecast is for it to start drying out up there later in April FUTURE tense which is what matters now.........and for which there is the most uncertainty. 

For all I know, May could end up being the wettest May in history for MN because the models/guidance we use just don't have the skill to forecast that far out............which in this case means everything to your planting.

Let's hope that, instead it turns very warm and dry like it did in May 2018.

By metmike - April 10, 2019, 12:27 p.m.
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      Craig Solberg@CraigSolberg                  4h4 hours ago              


Palmer drought index for March for the Corn Belt easily the highest on record. Maybe makes a case that the Corn Belt is wetter now than it has EVER been for this time of year?