..... I am finally checking in on the CORN ....
..... am I the "only" 3,333 lb. flying buffalo in the room ??? .... or is it just me .... ???
3-48-00 and then rs shows
up .... mark my words...
THANK YOU TALLPINE ...
Yes, thanks much tallpine!
The corn market will be/is trading wet weather forecasts this Spring. Seasonals are positive and large funds have near record shorts on. There is still (almost) 2 months to plant the corn but the planting window should start opening up by early May or there will be some big fireworks with fund short covering.
This operational GFS model product is updated every 12 hours. The GFS is updated every 6 hours.
The NWS updates these products below once a day, after 2pm based on all the guidance/models. As long as we stay wet, the weather has a chance to support corn.
On weekends, the maps are automated.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability | |
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability | |
First USDA crop condition/planting report of the season:
Winter wheat rated 56% Good/Excellent vs 32% last year. The 2018 rating was one of the worst ever because of the S.Plains drought.
This years ratings were about what was expected.
The SRW crop is not doing so well in some places. Ohio ratings were 26% p/vp for instance.
In contrast to last year, the HRW is doing much better. NE for instance, where we've been hearing about all the record flooding..........is doing pretty good. Only 5% p/vp and 69% gd/ex in Nebraska.
Too early to report on corn planted but it would probably be in the very low single digits.
The south has been drying out recently.......note all the brown on the 2nd map, which represents the change from a month ago.
Grain stocks and planted acres for Corn were both extremely bearish last Friday.
metmike, all your data, reports, and opinions offered on the grains are appreciated. Sonny Perdue was in our state this and Mike pence was on a farm in Lebanon this afternoon. Both had {naturally} many good things about ag, new tech, production etc. Perdue in particular was signaling new developments in the China discussion. Was not worried about negative repercussions on closing the boarder. Glad he was highly concerned about what is clearly a crisis and not short term green paste to dip in
Thanks mcfarm!
Late April into early May guess-cast (-:
IFF this would verify, it would be bearish corn..
Above temps to warm up soils nicely and as long as rains are not above average, things will dry out enough to get the crop planted in timely fashion.
Cold would be bullish as well as above precip............and there is plenty of that in the next 2 weeks but it doesn't really count as much until the end of the month, if it still looks cold/wet.
| Week 3-4 Outlooks | ||
| Valid: 20 Apr 2019 to 03 May 2019 Updated: 05 Apr 2019 | ||
| Please provide comments using the online survey. | ||
Temperature Probability | Precipitation Probability (Experimental)  | |
For weather(very wet) affecting the corn market because of poor planting conditions, go here:
Friday weather:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27114/
As mentioned in the last 3 days of weather updates. the amount of precip in the forecasts has been drying up and becoming more bearish for corn.
Saturday Weather:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27175/
Sunday Weather:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27234/
Monday Weather:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27286/
The main bullish item is probably this huge snowstorm coming up...........but that snow will melt and the extended weather is looking much drier and we still have a month to dry out before planting in timely fashion.
Export inspections this morning:
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt
Up a bit for both beans and wheat. Down a bit for corn.
Last year, the first USDA report that had corn planting showed 2% planted:
It doesn't matter this early but it has been pretty dry in the south, so maybe a bit of corn got planted down there but its hard to imagine that anything at all was planted in the main belt. Average for this time of year is just 2%.
USDA crop progress report.
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog1519.txt
Corn 2% planted. Still too early to matter.
Winter wheat conditions improved by 4% in the gd/ex category. Wow.
Now 60% gd/ex vs just 30% gd/ex last year.
Corn, soybean prices close unchanged
https://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/usda-data-seen-as-bearish-for-corn-market
| 2018/19 U.S. Grain Ending Stocks (million bushels | USDA April | Trade Estimate | USDA Previous |
| Corn | 2.035 | 1.99 billion | 1.835 billion |
| Soybeans | 895 | 903 million | 900 million |
| Wheat | 1.087 | 1.075 billion | 1.055 billion |
Take a look at DBA chart, the ag etf. Looks like the ag sector is caught fire and climbing wall already.
For the latest Corn planting weather, go here:
Saturdays Weather:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27672/
Sundays Weather:
Go to this link, then scroll down a page to see the corn planting pace for 2013, which had the slowest planting pace at the end of April since records were kept.
Just 5% of the corn crop was planted in 2013 on April 28th, which was tied with 1984 for the slowest pace ever at the end of April.
This year, 2019 will be competing for the slowest planted crop ever here in the early parts of the planting season.
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/2013/US_2013.pdf
April 29, 2013 / 4:26 PM / 6 years ago
"The U.S. Agriculture Department said corn planting, as of April 28, was 5 percent complete, just 1 percentage point ahead of where farmers were a week ago. The pace was the slowest since 1984, when farmers also had completed just 5 percent of their corn planting.
Analysts had predicted corn planting to be 9 percent finished, according to the average of 13 estimates in a Reuters poll that ranged from 7 to 11 percent.
Prior to USDA’s planting report, corn traders on Monday had expected a slow planting place and bid Chicago corn futures 6 percent higher for their biggest gain since July.
In Iowa, the top U.S. corn producing state, planting was just 2 percent complete. Farmers in Illinois and Indiana, two other major producers, had finished just 1 percent of their corn seeding.
“Wet fields are the topic for most farmers across the state,” the Illinois field office of USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service said in a report. “The heavy rains from the week before combined with the cooler-than-normal temperatures, have many fields still too wet. There has been no significant planting done yet.”
The five-year U.S. average for the end of April is 31 percent, while a year ago, farmers had finished 49 percent of their corn planting. Corn planting in 2012 was completed in record time but the final crop came in well below expectations due to the drought that hit the Midwest during the summer.
“Our main concern is not that we didn’t get most of our crop planted by the end of April, it’s just we’re not quite sure when we’re going to start,” said Emerson Nafziger, agronomist at the University of Illinois.
In 1984, the last time planting was as slow as it is now, the sluggish ace had little impact on harvest, with final corn yields averaging 32 percent better than the previous year."
https://www.beefmagazine.com/grain-prices/will-2013-be-slowest-corn-planting-year-ever
So is this the slowest ever(2013)? That depends on how you judge “slowest.” We’ve always shown 1993 as the slowest year, primarily because it got started so slowly, with less than 10% of acres planted by the end of April. Like this year, producers caught up some in mid-May 1993, planting 53% of the acres between May 5 and May 19 of that year.
But there are a number of years that had a lower percentage of acres planted by week 21, which this year corresponds to May 26. Only 71% of acres were planted by this week in 1995, and only 78% were planted in 1996. Only 82% were planted by now in 2009.
The national average yield in 1995 was 13.2 bu. below trend. For 1996, the yield got within 1.5 bu. of trend, while 2009 saw the current record corn yield of 164.7 bu./acre. That was 11.9 bu./acre above the 1960-present trend, and 8 bu./acre larger than the 1996-present “biotech era” trend.
Corn tonight seems to be reacting positively to the wet forecast coming up as expected.
If we stay wet for a few more weeks, we could have an explosive rally from big fund short covering.
Still plenty of time to plant the crop but if we still only have national planting in the single digits in 2 weeks(which looks likely) and the forecast for 2 weeks then are still wet for especially IL and IA, suggesting not much planting until at least mid May, corn may be 20c higher than this.
CK needs to clear the April 4th high of 3.66 1/4, then it's looking like a solid bottom is in................until the weather turns dry and the crop gets planted in timely fashion.
Temps look warmer for the Midwest in the 2nd half of April which is more bearish than cold temps.However, too much rain will be increasing in bullishness for each day that goes by just as a new drier pattern showing up, that allows planting to catch up will quickly put the kibash on the rally.
Planting delay rally's are often the trickiest to trade because they are not always taking yeild away and they mean that the soil moisture profile is chock full(too full) so it will take much longer for the market to initially rally on hot/dry weather.
If its hot/dry in May, this will be seen as bearish(in 2012, with the crop planted and dry soils, hot and dry in May was mega bullish because the potential to kill the crop was there).
This year, especially with a weak El Nino, the chances of a drought developing are very slim. Odds for something like 1993 are higher than average but still that only happens every few decades. However, with climate change, excessive rains are one of the few legit negative elements which threaten our crops that are higher.
If models suddenly all turn drier overnight, corn can go lower too(the first week part of the operational GFS right now is actually drier).
