A lot of prime crop growing area will be planted late if it gets planted at all. Prevented planting option is looking more appealing for many of us in Mn. and elsewhere.
Thanks cliff!
Our local town just missed a flood with the snow melt and rains this past month.
Now they are building temporary berms in an area they have never built them before. Evidently the NWS is telling folks to get ready for more.
Good job forecasting if that is the case. Our tax dollars doing good work.
Good job by them preparing for the possibility.
But you know how good long range/seasonal forecasts are.
They don't display a great deal of skill...though conditions are more favorable for flooding this Spring. Their coverage on the map with a greater than 50% chance of moderate and major flooding goes beyond the skill of forecasting tools and models with regards to the confidence level.
In this case, I am ok with them exaggerating the skill and numbers a bit because the actions and preparation will justify the risks..........which are high enough, whether it's a 60% chance or 30% chance of happening.
30% chance of major to historic flooding compared to maybe a 2% chance in any one year is still 15 times higher than average risk!!!
In peoples minds though, they may treat 30%, like a forecast for rain............it's less likely to happen than not.
Greater than 50% means its more likely to happen than not. I don't think that historic flooding is more likely to happen than not this year but there is a 15 times greater than average chance of it.
And the NWS is aware of this in their advisorys/warnings/ forecasts. A huge part of their jobs is to get people to prepare and they will present the verbiage needed to do that.
Tornado warnings are something completely different but when there is a tornado warning, they would not say something like "there is a .0001% chance of this tornado hitting your house".
It's "go to your tornado safe place NOW!"
Be prepared for the worst case scenario and grateful when it doesn't hit.
That doesn't apply to man made climate change because:
1. The data is giving us higher and higher confidence that the worst case scenario is extraordinarily unlikely
2. The crisis is actually an optimum. What actions do you take for better weather/climate?
3. The actions would cost many trillions of dollars with zero affect on climate
The week 2 part of the forecast is drier and milder today but that will change.
There is still 2 months to plant the corn. For all we know, the current situation is looking at everything when it looked the wettest with the highest threat.