Good Bye January! Share your blessings with somebody today. Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it now.
Bitter cold blast is rapidly receding ..................Good bye polar vortex!
This is what the Polar Vortex looks like right now, displaced many thousands of miles farther south than its usual position in the high latitudes...but rapidly lifting back northeast.
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max.
Here are the latest hazards across the country. More cold and snow-Who will get the most snow?
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Current Jet Stream
Winter Weather
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Snowfall the next 3 days:
Forecast Hour: 084
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_084_snodpth_chng.gif
WOOOOOOW!!!!!!!!
| Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
High Temperatures
Intense cold receding fast! Very mild air replaces it.
Highs for days 3-7:
Very mild to start in the much of the country, especially south and east. Another big cold shot NorthCentral that pushes southeast and moderates next week.
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?
Amazing recovery from the bitter cold to milder temperatures in much of the country. More frigid weather next week but shifted westward. Big temperature contrast from northwest to southeast.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Weather maps for days 3-7 below:
Southern stream takes over with much milder air dominating(turning wet next week)..............northern stream still has some less intense cold(compared to this current one) to deliver with a couple of cold fronts...........aimed farther west but tracking slowly across the country next week...........and the cold air behind it modifying.
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Fairly dry this week.............turning wetter next week.
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Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Current Dew Points
Super Duper Incredibly dry Midwest to Northeast........in the record cold air.
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
| Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) |
Go to: Most Recent Image
Precipitation the past 24 hours
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
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Soil moisture anomaly:
Still wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.
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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z ensembles from THURSDAY
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:
Last Monday: 12z run: Milder solutions are gaining favor, colder ones losing out but still possible. Entry point of the cold looks farther west than it did on last weeks solutions. Yesterdays colder 12z model has been the exception to this trend the last 2 days.
Tuesday: 12z run: Though most of the recent solutions have been milder, more undercutting/Pacific flow and less northern stream, this last one is slightly colder again.
Wednesday: Same milder theme as previous solutions late in week 2, with the exception of yesterdays 12z run.
Thursday: For the first time in awhile, the 0Z forecast is colder. The ridge west/trough east couplet has magnified again, though shifted to the west, so the entry point of the cold would be a bit farther to the west.
Friday: This particular model is colder yet. Stronger ridge west/trough east solution on the average/mean. Some solutions have a piece of the polar vortex dropping pretty far south again.
Saturday: The subtle shift west in the large scale features noted earlier in the week is becoming more apparent with time. This, as upper level ridging tries to build in the southeast. This would warm things up in the east and cool things down in the west vs the recent pattern......and crank up the moisture flow.
Sunday: Same as previous theme. More ridge building in the Southeast today.
Monday: Ridge building continues in the southeast. Very pronouced/obvious on the mean today. However, the northern stream is still exerting significant influence out of Canada and will be battling this southern stream feature late in week 2.
Tuesday: The showdown continues between the building southern stream upper level ridge in the Southeast and the Northern stream. Today, on this model, at 2 weeks, on some solutions, the northern stream has a renewed surge into the northern tier of states. Enormous uncertainty.............not on the main players but on the strength of them and especially on the weather in the battle zone and timing of weather features that they cause/location of their dominance at distant times frames like this.
Wednesday(PM): Northern stream and cold make a come back during week 2, strengthening and pushing farther southeast as the southern stream upper level ridge in the Southeast weakens a bit. The coldest air will be farther west than with this recent intense cold. Great uncertainty on how strong the upper level ridge will be in the East.
Thursday: Similar to yesterday afternoons update.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Feb 15, 2019 00 UTC
0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:
Analysis, starting with a week ago:
Last Sunday: At the end of week 2 we have a battle between the pattern displayed over the past 10 days............large scale, full latitude ridge west/trough east couplet in North America with the polar vortex displaced unusually far south and an attempt for Pacific flow to undercut that northern stream dominate flow. The northern stream is still winning here.
Monday: The northern stream dominated solutions are steadily losing ground, although the cold on this model is still aimed towards the Northeast on several solutions.
Tuesday: The northern stream continues to be deflected out of the US picture by many members.................but still several that disagree.
Wednesday: More widespread agreement on milder as week 2 progresses.
Thursday: Much colder! Ridge west/trough east and northern stream trying to flex its muscles again.
Friday: Still pretty cold and northern stream dominance from Canada to northern tier but some solutions battle this with a southern stream. Possible upper level ridge in the far south/Gulf of Mexico? The 06z run that came 6 hours after this, very early this morning didn't look nearly as cold to me.
Saturday: Now the solutions with a southern stream and upper level ridge in the southeast are growing. This would warm it up and pump moisture northward. But the northern stream is battling to remain strong on several but getting smaller solutions and it effects mostly the northern tier.
Sunday: Ridge building in the Southeast........battling still, potentially active northern stream cold waves farther north/northwest.
Monday: Southern stream upper level ridge in the Southeast......warm and moist air on its back side. Northern stream almost out of the picture on this model vs the Canadian model thats more bullish the northern stream. However, the 06z run of the GFS ensembles was colder with that stream aimed into the Upper Midwest/Northeast.
Tuesday: Welcome back Northern Stream! Huge, renewed surge of the northern stream. On some solutions, another fairly far south incursion of the Polar Vortex(or at least an extension of it south) but nothing like this current event......except for the extremes.
Wednesday: Tremendous uncertainty and differences.
Thursday: A lot of different solutions.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated Thursday Afternoon!
Wednesday: Guidance continues milder than last Friday for the 5th day in a row...for the southeast parts of the country. You can see the battle between warmth there from the southern stream upper level ridge and the cold in the Northwest half from the northern stream and the retrograded upper level pattern in Canada.
Big battle between these features and a lot of precip! Will cold start moving east later in week 2?
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability | |
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
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