KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, January 29, 2019
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -1.3%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Economic Indicators Report
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter GDP by State * This data will not be released if the partial
U.S. Govt shutdown remains in effect
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -1.5%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +6.8%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +7.0%)
9:00 AM ET. November S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.7%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.0%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.5%)
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter U.S. Housing Vacancies
10:00 AM ET. January Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (previous 128.1)
Expectation Idx (previous 99.1)
Present Situation Idx (previous 171.6)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +6.6M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.6M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.6M)
N/A POSTPONED: Trump delivers second State of the Union address
N/A Advanced Reactors Technical Summit
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
N/A Annual Food Labeling: Evolving Regulatory Compliance Conference
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6587.16 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7023.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 6793.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7023.35. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6587.16. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6136.50.
The March S&P 500 was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2591.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If March extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2706.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2683.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2706.38. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2591.69. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2439.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was mostly steady in quiet trading overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 146.11 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 144-00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146.11. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 144-00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 142.16.
March T-notes was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 122.090 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 120.301 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 122.090. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.080. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 120.301. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 120.071.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
March crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55 is the next upside target. First resistance is the the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 58.55. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.20. Second support is December's low crossing at 42.67.
March heating oil was higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 183.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 183.57. Second support is December's low crossing at 162.35.
March unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Monday's decline, December's low crossing at 124.24 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 141.73 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 147.65. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 153.48. First support is Monday's low crossing at 134.13. Second support is December's low crossing at 124.24.
March Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 2.771 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.052 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.406. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.465. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.840. Second support is January's low crossing at 2.771.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 95.04 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 96.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 96.65. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 97.19. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 95.04. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.54.
The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.79 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 113.77 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 116.33. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 117.00. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 113.37. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.
The March British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's low, October's high crossing at 1.3356 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2924 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3257. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3356. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2924. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.2707.
The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this month's decline, November's low crossing at 1.0018 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0178 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0178. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0354. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.0061. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0018.
The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.16 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 75.99. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.16. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.30.
The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0922 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0906 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0933. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0946. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.0913. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0905.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1320.10 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 1281.50 would confirm a top while opening the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 1269.00. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1314.60. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1320.10. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1281.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1269.00.
March silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 15.195 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 15.955. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279. First support last-Tuesday's low crossing at 15.195. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.032.
March copper was higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 280.35 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off December's high, January's low crossing at 254.30 then the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 251.75 are the next downside targets. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 280.35. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 285.80. First support is the reaction low crossing at 261.65. Second support is January's low crossing at 254.30.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it continues to extend the September-January trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.83 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.84 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. First support is January's low crossing at 3.71. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.
March wheat was higher overnight while extending the September-January trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.08. Second support is Jan.'s low crossing at 5.01 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 2 3/4-cents at 5.06 3/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 4.92 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is December's low crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.68 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 5.80. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.61. Second support is December's low crossing at 5.44 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last week's low, January's high crossing at 9.27 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 8.91 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 9.27 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 9.41. First support is the reaction low crossing at 8.91 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 8.80 1/2.
March soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the September-January trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 307.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 316.50 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 316.50. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 323.60. First support is January's low crossing at 309.10. Second support is December's low crossing at 307.10.
March soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 30.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.81 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 30.32. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 30.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.26. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.81.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $0.20 at $62.33.
April hogs closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the July-November-rally crossing at 59.81 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 67.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.96. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 67.40. First support is the 75% retracement level of the July-November-rally crossing at 61.69. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the July-November-rally crossing at 59.81.
April cattle closed up $0.53 at 127.38.
April cattle closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.80. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is last-Wednesday's crossing at 125.48. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.54.
March Feeder cattle closed up $0.73 at $144.35.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.41 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes this month's decline, December's low crossing at 140.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146.47. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 147.58. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 141.20. Second support is December's low crossing at 140.35.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed sharply lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 10.04 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 20.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 23.68 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends last-Friday's decline, January's low crossing at 11.69 is the next downside target. If March renews this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 13.54 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed lower on Monday while extending that trading range of the past four-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.88 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 74.04 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!