Thanks Larry,

Excellent analysis on some of those indices. 

I disagree that there is an increasing threat however. Small threat,  yes but to me, it looks like, although there will be marginally cold enough air in place, the upper level trough in that area is not favorable and lacks a well defined upper level perturbation that would sharpen the trough, far enough west to produce an organized Winter Storm threat anywhere along the East Coast.

Perturbations like this are often not seen well by models a week out but until one shows up, it looks like most of the snow, if any will be limited to the higher elevations of the Carolina's, for instance and not be very heavy. 

There have been(and still are at 12z)  a couple of GFS ensembles and several Canadian ensembles that show a nice upper level perturbation that could generate a Southeast storm, though they are a small minority.

For sure though, the pattern you mentioned is favorable. 

 Thanks Mike and also thank you for your insight!

 I will remind you and others that a significant SE winter storm can be outside of the mountains from just a few inches. I know most know this. I consider 4” enough to be major in places like Atlanta, where 4”+ is on average only about a 1 in 5 year occurrence.

 I forgot to mention that this winter storm's primary threat could end up being major accretions of damaging ice from freezing rain, typically the most damaging of winter storms. Currently, models are increasing this threat thanks to low level wedging of a SE Canada Arctic high that extends deep down into the SE US and banks up against the east side of the Appalachians. Damage typically really starts getting going after ~0.50" of freezing rain falls and really intensifies once ~0.75" has fallen. Atlanta, itself, looks to be a close call as of now with at least a very cold rain quite possible.

 On Jan 6, Mike said this:

 "Thanks Larry,

Excellent analysis on some of those indices. 

I disagree that there is an increasing threat however. Small threat,  yes but to me, it looks like, although there will be marginally cold enough air in place, the upper level trough in that area is not favorable and lacks a well defined upper level perturbation that would sharpen the trough, far enough west to produce an organized Winter Storm threat anywhere along the East Coast.

Perturbations like this are often not seen well by models a week out but until one shows up, it looks like most of the snow, if any will be limited to the higher elevations of the Carolina's, for instance and not be very heavy. 

There have been(and still are at 12z)  a couple of GFS ensembles and several Canadian ensembles that show a nice upper level perturbation that could generate a Southeast storm, though they are a small minority.

For sure though, the pattern you mentioned is favorable."

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Followup: 

1. Noting what I bolded above from Mike, the air does look only marginally old enough for SE snow and that looks, indeed, to be mainly in the higher elevations of NC. Also, the projected precip. amounts is not heavy. So, very good calls by Mike it appears as of now.

2. I earlier mentioned freezing rain as something to watch out for. it does appear that some of W NC will get some although not heavy/damaging due to mainly pretty light precip. amounts. Note that the worst of the icing from this will likely not be in the highest elevations as this often is much worse just east of the Appalachians due to lower level cold air wedging there.

3. All in all, I now don't think it will be a big deal even for the SE. However, at the time I started this thread, I thought a big deal for the SE was possible.

Thanks for the update Larry!

Just to add some things you may already know

Here in Ontario 70 miles north of Detroit Mich, just recently we are experiencing the coldest weather we have had this winter. We have had two cold days so far

Freezing temps day and night at our farm,  have finally allowed us to blow freezing air into our storage bins

We think it might warm up some time next week so we are keeping the fans blowing until Sat  nite if the cold lasts that long

On the SE, my experience traveling in that area, is any amount of snow sends people home to shelter. However freezing rain is the most dangerous for motorists as it seems to catch a person off guard. I drive in icy conditions locally and accept the conditions and I am used to driving in snow or ice. But: I  had a near tragic experience with ice in the SE during day light with perfect visibility. Black ice is invisible and dangerous

So For anybody that has to travel, our cold may extend some distance south but watch out for the ice on the road

Please be careful