Beans
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Started by Jim_M - Jan. 4, 2019, 10 a.m.

My favorite topic.  Reading a report this morning lamenting about dry and hot in Central SA and how it's taken about 5-8 Millions tons off the bottom line.  Almost as an after thought, there is a off hand comment that Argentina's crop will be 20 Million tons larger than last years drought stricken crop.

News just loves a bullish story, but again, this is a topic that is anything but bullish.  Even with a smaller SA crop, it is STILL a big crop.  

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Re: Beans
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By mcfarm - Jan. 4, 2019, 10:52 a.m.
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that being said the story for the next few weeks has to be SA weather and chiiiiina {wow whatever happened to Russia russia Russia every minute of every hour on the news}


and the energy seems to breaking to the up ...don't stand if front of trains or in this case a slow moving ride at the local amusement park

Re: Re: Beans
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By Jim_M - Jan. 4, 2019, 11:27 a.m.
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I guess, but overall the end game is still an overall crop that could be 20 MT bigger than last years.  Not to mention when does harvest start?  I also read a Chinese hog farm with 100K head has ASF and cases are popping up every where.  

By mcfarm - Jan. 7, 2019, 1:43 p.m.
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By jim - Jan. 7, 2019, 3:05 p.m.
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   China bought 11 more bean cargoes today for state reserves.

By Jim_M - Jan. 7, 2019, 3:34 p.m.
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In another couple weeks, SA will be feeding China with a fresh load of beans.  

By mcfarm - Jan. 7, 2019, 5:49 p.m.
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By metmike - Jan. 7, 2019, 11:09 p.m.
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Export inspections reported earlier today. Nothing to write home about, corn was especially mediocre:

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

By metmike - Jan. 8, 2019, 12:02 a.m.
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I think that the extremely heavy rains in N.Argentina may be at least as big of a factor as the dry weather in Brazil:


Last GFS has a 20 inch max for 2 week totals:


gfs_samer_372_precip_ptot.gif

By metmike - Jan. 8, 2019, 12:37 a.m.
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http://wxmaps.org/outlooks.php


Select a Parameter:    

By metmike - Jan. 8, 2019, 12:40 a.m.
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Crop calendar for Argentina:

http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/Argentina-Crop-Cycles

January

  • Early corn in northern Argentina approaching maturity.
  • Corn moving from pollination to grain filling in central Argentina.
  • By end of month, some early corn and sunflowers are starting to be harvested.
  • Finish wheat harvest by early January.
  • Finish planting double crop soybeans by early January.
  • Full season soybeans flowering and starting to set pods.
  • Maximum summer temperatures.
  • Summer rains usually abundant, but can have dry spells.

 

February

  • More corn and sunflowers now being harvested.
  • Corn in central Argentina entering grain filling phase.
  • Full season soybeans setting and filling pods.
  • Double crop soybeans flowering.
  • Sunflower harvest in full swing.
  • Temperatures can still be very hot, but starting to cool by end of month.
  • Rainfall usually getting lighter.

Global Crop Production Maps by Region

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/global_cropprod.aspx

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/ssa/AR_Delegation/Argentina_soybeans_department_2014_2017.jpg

By metmike - Jan. 8, 2019, 12:41 a.m.
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Crop Calendar for Brazil:(beans were planted a couple of weeks early this year....will be ready early:

http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/Brazil-Crop-Cycles

January

 Soybeans flowering and setting pods. 

  • Some very early soybeans in central Brazil may be harvested this month.
  • First harvested soybeans shipped to processors.
  • Continue spraying to control soybean rust.
  • Corn in grain filling phase.
  • Peak of the rainy season, rains 2-3 times a day in central Brazil, overcast, very hot and humid, greenhouse-like conditions.

February

  • Main pod filling month for soybeans.
  • Early soybeans being harvested, corn harvest begins.
  • Harvested soybeans arrive at ports, soybean exports begin by early February.
  • Soybean rust control now focused on later maturing soybeans.
  • Safrinha (second corn crop) planted after early soybeans are harvested.
  • Can still be very rainy in central Brazil, rainfall less frequent in southern Brazil.

http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/Brazil-Crop-Cycles

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Brazil/Municipality/Brazil_Soybean_prod_2015.jpg

By mcfarm - Jan. 8, 2019, 7:03 a.m.
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arc has argentina wet to flooding and brazil hot and dry

By metmike - Jan. 8, 2019, 11:55 a.m.
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      Craig Solberg@CraigSolberg                  1h1 hour ago              

  

  

                                     

Nice 4-day rain totals in an area of Brazil/Paraguay that really needed it

                                                 

 

By mcfarm - Jan. 8, 2019, 3:49 p.m.
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kory is shaving beans from 116...one firm put out a 110...way to pessimistic kory says. The areas that got rain have more potential the areas that did not are hurt...30% in parana...50% good and 20 ave he says.  most of those soils down there have little water holding capacity and they need rain very few days.... heat in the map for the next week

By metmike - Jan. 9, 2019, 1:22 p.m.
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Not much change in the South America weather in week 1. Possibly as much as 10 inches of rain in parts of Argentina, not much in Brazil.


Some week 2 models shift the rains farther north, into  day Southern Brazil. We'll have to see about that.

Still no rain for bone dry Central Brazil out 2 weeks.


By metmike - Jan. 9, 2019, 1:25 p.m.
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Note how dry that its been in Brazil the past 30 days.........wet in Argentina:


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.30day.figb.gif