Could the durable goods be front loading to beat anticipated new tariffs

Re: Company profits

Looks to me as if the market wants to sell

I suppose some are taking a guess at 2019 

Nothing goes up or down for ever

We see that in the grain biz all the time

I have been saying to sell stks for most of the past yr.

Problem was: when stks keep on going up, and I kept on saying that selling was the thing to do, it seemed kind of a dumb thing to say

Selling on margin would have been a death sentence, early on, but those who bought on margin at the end also have problems

So there you have it

The market will do the greatest amount of pain to as many as possible

I'm still of the opinion that this market is way oversold.  Durable core capital goods is troubling, can't say if it's trade war related or not,  but that's likely a factor.  Other than that, for the most part, the underlying is strong.

But equities players are spooked.  Trump and the Fed are scaring them.  Unless I am missing something, and that's entirely possible, when the market players calm down,  we're in for a mother of a rally. I've given up on predicting when that will happen,  but it won't be next week,   maybe not next month.

Tim,

Thanks much for a post with a chock full of economic information. 

You are probably right about the market not liking interest rates going higher and the uncertainty with Trump.

I think the severe correction this year, gets us back closer to where the market should be. The market gains since 2009 were way over done based on the value of these companies.

Even if the rally that started in 2009 was the bottom and todays price was the top so far(without the higher stock numbers before this correction) I think that everybody would be pretty pleased with the overall results.

However, instead of viewing things from this realistic vantage point, we all compare todays market with the way over valued highs and assess things based on how far the market has fallen since then vs how far up we are in the last 9 years. 

When interest rates were extremely low, stocks were the only game in town as well as it being over fed with exuberant, irrational buying...........as in a bubble. We were clearly in a stock market bubble with positive feedback buying.  

It was crazy to think that stocks could keep going up at that pace for so long. 

This Is What A Stock Market Bubble Bursting Feels Like

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2018/11/20/this-is-what-a-stock-market-bubble-bursting-feels-like/#56f36e8c3bd4

Stock market bubble

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_bubble

I think your assumptions have to include the idea that stocks were reasonably priced in 2009 when the major indexes were at decades level lows. I would disagree.  A DOW approaching 5000 about 10 years ago was pretty darn cheap.

Currently the DOW has a PE of around 18 and change.  A little high,  but nothing resembling a bubble.  In spite of increasing profits and assorted positive economic indicators, this market appears to be pricing for a recession.  Maybe we are headed for a recession,  but the business climate sure doesn't feel that way.

Granted,  the transition from a relatively business unfriendly admin to an extremely business friendly admin coupled with an historic corporate tax cut sure got people excited, and the ascent of stocks was pretty steep.  I would expect some modulation and a reaction to the Fed's tightening,  but IMO,  the action of the last few months is an over reaction.