9 days until Christmas! Just another day? Do something special for somebody today. Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it now.
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max. Mild and quiet weather pattern coming up. Wet weather east later next week.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory. Yellow-Tornado watch.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Winter Weather
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Snowfall the next 3 days from the NAM model
Forecast Hour: 069
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_069_snodpth_chng.gif
Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
High Temperatures today and tomorrow.
MILD!
Highs for days 3-7:
Very mild start..........some cooling late week/next weekend but still not very cold by late December standards.
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?
Above average everywhere, much above in the N.Plains and vicinity!
Low Temperature Departures:
Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:
Mild temps. Southern Canada is very mild, so cold fronts
will lack real cold air. New big storm Thursday in the South that tracks north/northeast. Northwest fringe of that one will be just cold enough for a bit of snow.
The latest liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next week are below.
Dry for the next week in the Plains to Western Midwest. New storm Thursday in the South, tracks north to northeast.....mostly rain but just cold enough for snow on the northwest fringe.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Late week snow forecast from the GFS ensembles.
recast Hour: 144
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gefs-mean-sprd/06/gefs-mean-sprd_namer_144_snodpth_chng_sprd.gif
Current Dew Points
Moisture in the east moving out again.
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) |
Go to: Most Recent Image
Precipitation the past 24 hours
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
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Soil moisture anomaly:
Still wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.
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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from SUNDAY:
Last week progressing to today:
Monday: Similar to Sunday but not quite as cold
Tuesday: Ridge West, trough East not as amplified or quite as cold.
Wednesday: Not much different than Tuesday but still pretty cold and by far the coldest model.
Thursday: This model continues to insist on it turning much colder later in week 2 and has been the coldest of all the models by far for quite awhile.
Friday: MUCH milder, more zonal(west to east jet stream) for the average and less deviation south of the polar vortex on the colder ones.
Saturday: Majority remain mild but several members on this model won't give up the idea of the polar vortex shifting south/northern stream bringing down frigid air, which will be getting charged up in Canada during week 2.
Sunday: Colder solution than yesterday(which was pretty mild). Much agreement on cross polar flow and Canada getting charged up with bitterly cold air. The question is how much of that, if any will be delivered across the border and where will the intrusions be?
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Dec 31, 2018 00 UTC
0Z GFS Ensembles
Last week progressing to today:
Monday: Cold members have a slight majority
Tuesday: Similar to yesterday
Wednesday: Similar to Tuesday but the 6z run that came after this was VERY mild.
Thursday: Mix between mild and cold. Battle between southern stream and northern stream. Canada, which will be very mild the next week, may get charged up with cold that will be available for depositing into the US, will any north to south flow that develops.
Friday: Mild members have a majority but still some cold looking ones.
Saturday: Mild solutions have the vast majority.
Sunday: The milds win, mainly because a southern stream upper level trough is far enough west to bring warm moist air eastward. Not much northern stream, that the Canadian model is gung ho on with numerous members/solutions.
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them.
Last week at the top, progressing to today:
Monday: AO still slightly negative.......increases cold potential. NAO slightly positive.......makes it a tad tougher for the cold to penetrate as deeply. The PNA is a tad positive, which favors cold in the east a tad.
Tuesday: AO has a few members that dive strongly negative but some much higher....huge spread. NAO near 0.
Wednesday: AO goes negative in week 2(without the extreme negatives from yesterday), then drifts back towards zero at the end of week 2. NAO near zero.
Thursday: NAO is close to zero. AO, drops negative(helps with cold air delivery) but recovers close to zero near the end. Nothing compelling. PNA which will be positive the next week, drops slowly towards zero in week 2...........nothing compelling.
Friday: NAO close to 0. AO drops negative but is back near zero late week 2(a few positive) and not as favorable for cold air delivery in late December as earlier this week.
Saturday: AO a bit negative. NAO is positive. Flow pattern thru late week 2 is generally unfavorable for cold air to work south. Most models have a mild, zonal flow.
Sunday: Tiny changes since Saturday. AO close to zero but a few negative and one outlier strongly negative. Probably not worth noting, except for the fact that this is what we might look for(if there was more support than outliers) if the pattern was going to morph to much colder at the end of the month.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated early this afternoon.
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability |
the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
By cliff-e - Dec. 15, 2018, 3:32 p.m.
Very mild and warm for us in W.Mn with temps. In upper 30s to mid 40s for a few days and a few more to come. We've seen people in boats on rivers enjoying some fishing and also on shore angling when usually there is ice fishing by now. Winter sports enthusiasts are disappointed but we know the weather can turn on a dime so we'll just enjoy it for now. :-)
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By metmike - Dec. 15, 2018, 4:09 p.m.
Thanks cliff!
Temperatures compared to average are some of the mildest in your neck of the woods.
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By WxFollower - Dec. 15, 2018, 9:20 p.m.
Mike,
Thanks very much for doing these daily updates!
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By metmike - Dec. 15, 2018, 11:30 p.m.
YW Larry!
Thank YOU for all your valuable contributions.