KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, December 6, 2018
7:30 AM ET. November Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +36.8%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1266.5K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 628.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 377.1K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 234K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +10K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1710000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +50K)
8:30 AM ET. October U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (previous -54.02B)
Exports (USD) (previous 212.57B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
Imports (USD) (previous 266.58B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. October Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.0%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3054B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -59B)
12:00 PM ET. November Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, December 7, 2018
8:30 AM ET. November U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +250K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 3.7%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.30)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.05)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.18%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +3.1%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous +4K)
Private Payroll (previous +246K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.9%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
10:00 AM ET. December University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 98.3)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 88.7)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 113.2)
10:00 AM ET. October Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was sharply overnight, with selling so intense at one point that circuit breakers were triggered, after the arrest of a Huawei executive reignited trade worries that helped drag equities to their worst session since early October on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 6449.50 is the next downside target. If the index renews its rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 7231.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7075.15. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 7231.00. First support is the overnight low crossing at 6658.50. Second support is November's low crossing at 6449.50.
The December S&P 500 was sharply lower overnight as it extends this week's huge decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 2633.00 is the next downside target.If December resumes the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 2861.07 is the next upside target.First resistance is November's high crossing at 2817.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 2861.07. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2651.30. Second support is November's low crossing at 2633.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at 144-06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 139-12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 143-04. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 144-06. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 140-15. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139-12.
March T-notes closed higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at 120.170 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.179 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 120.130. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 120.170. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 119.179. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.015.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
January crude oil was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January renews the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.37 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.37. Second resistance is the November 16th reaction high crossing at 58.16. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 49.96. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00.
January heating oil was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 197.21 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 197.21. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 217.60. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 178.37. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08.
January unleaded gas was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.51 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.51. Second resistance is the November 16th reaction high crossing at 159.94. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 135.41. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88.
January Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it continues to form a symmetrical triangle. The low-range late-overnight trade leaves the door open for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. A breakout in either direction of the symmetrical triangle will point the direction of the next trending move. If January resumes the rally off September's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2016-decline crossing at 5.336 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.324 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 4.964. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of 2008-2016-decline crossing at 5.336. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.324. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.736.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 96.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.58. Second support is November's low crossing at 94.91.
The March Euro was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.65. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 116.45. First support is November's low crossing at 113.54. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.
The March British Pound was higher overnight. The high-range trade in the overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2902 would temper the bearish outlook. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2665 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2902. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3034. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.2730. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2665.
The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.0204 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0118 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0204. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0291. First support is November's low crossing at 1.0018. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9833.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the May-2017 low crossing at 73.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.45 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the November 16th reaction high crossing at 76.33. Second resistance is the 50-day crossing at 76.45. First support is the overnight low crossing at 74.55. Second support is weekly support crossing at 73.67.
The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at 0.0899 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If March renews the decline off October's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 0.0877 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0899. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0907. First support is November's low crossing at 0.0885. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 0.0877.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 1252.00 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1216.80 would open the door for a possible test of November's low crossing at 1202.40. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1252.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1259.00. First support is November's low crossing at 1202.40. Second support is October's low crossing at 1192.00.
March silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off November's high, monthly support crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 14.660 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of October's high crossing at 15.055. First resistance is October's high crossing at 15.055. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.175. First support is November's low crossing at 13.985. Second support is monthly support crossing at 13.620.
March copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 272.50 would temper the friendly outlook. If March resumes the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 288.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 288.80. Second resistance is the July 5th gap crossing at 295.45. First support is November's low crossing at 266.20. Second support is September's low crossing at 260.30.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's gains. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 3.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.76 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3.90. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.98 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.54 3/4.
March wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off October's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 4.82 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.23 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.23. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.46 1/2. First support is November's low crossing at 5.03 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 5.01.
March wheat closed down 4 1/4-cents at 5.18 1/4.
March wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 5.01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.23 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.23 1/2. Second is October's high crossing at 5.46 1/2. First support is November's low crossing at 5.03 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 5.01.
March Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.86 1/2 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off October's high, July's low crossing at 5.59 is the next downside target. If First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.86 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.93. First support is November's low crossing at 5.67 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.59.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.79 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If January extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.17. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.79 3/4. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at 8.57.
March soybean meal was slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at 319.70 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 303.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 319.70. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. First support is November's low crossing at 305.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40.
March soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Recent closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.92 could open the door for a larger-degree rally off November's low. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.22 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.92. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 30.50. First support is November's low crossing at 27.42. Second support is weekly support crossing at 26.88.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed up $1.70 at $67.75.
February hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February renews the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 72.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 69.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 72.88. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.58. Second support is November's low crossing at 59.25.
February cattle closed up $0.73 at 122.38.
February cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the October 26th reaction high crossing at 123.68 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 118.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 122.55. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 123.68. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 118.57. Second support is November's crossing at 116.67.
January Feeder cattle closed up $1.08 at $145.48.
January Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends last week's decline, November's low crossing at 142.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 146.89 are needed to renew the rally off November's low. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 149.52. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 152.43. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 143.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 142.67.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 10.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.33 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.99 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 20.08 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 11.91 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 13.54 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's rally, September's high crossing at 84.22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.85 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!