Weather Tuesday
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Started by metmike - Dec. 4, 2018, 10:15 a.m.

21 days until Christmas!  Just another day?  Give somebody an early present today. Seriously, don't just think about it for a it now.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max. Cold week coming up but very quiet.

Here are the latest hazards across the country.

Purple/Pink/blue is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory. Yellow-Tornado watch.

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     


Winter Weather

Image result for image of snowflakes

Snowfall forecast for the next 2 days below:

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Forecast Hour:  048
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Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

By metmike - Dec. 4, 2018, 10:16 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and tomorrow.

Cold here for this week!



By metmike - Dec. 4, 2018, 10:16 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Cold for much of the country........coldest Midwest.

By metmike - Dec. 4, 2018, 10:17 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

Cold blues have taken over. Coldest in the middle.

Low Temperature Departures:

By metmike - Dec. 4, 2018, 10:18 a.m.
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Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:

Cold this week with Canadian high pressure, reinforcing, mostly dry cold front late week.

Big weekend storm in the south.

By metmike - Dec. 4, 2018, 10:20 a.m.
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The latest liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next week are below.

Dry this week for the Cornbelt but very  wet in the south this weekend!  

Bad for unharvested cotton.

Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - Dec. 4, 2018, 10:21 a.m.
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Current Dew Points

 Dry air has completely taken over.

Current Dew Points


Latest radar loop

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop


Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)


Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

Precipitation the past 24 hours



You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      


     Soil moisture anomaly:

Still  wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.


Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

By metmike - Dec. 4, 2018, 10:28 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................12Z ensembles from TUESDAY:

Last week progressing to today:

Thursday: Big disagreement. Most mild some cold.

Friday: Pretty compelling case for a pattern change to mild, spreading across the country from west to east during week 2.

Saturday: Vast majority VERY mild

Sunday: Most solutions are VERY mild, so high confidence for a period this far out..

Monday/Today: Still mild but a few(minority) solutions morph towards a ridge west/trough east pattern.

Tuesday: Huge change in the cold direction by  several members that bring in the cold northern stream...........a couple of members that displace the polar vortex southward.  Ridge west/trough east is now prevalent enough to show up on the ensemble average.


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Dec 19, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Dec. 4, 2018, 10:29 a.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles

Last week progressing to today:

Wednesday: This model still looks mostly mild.

Thursday: Still looks pretty mild on most members for late week 2

Friday: Mild overall but several members don't want to give up the northern stream ghost that keeps haunting week 2 forecasts and causing cold updates.

Saturday: Mild majority but a few have some northern stream influence

Sunday: Very mild vast majority, increases confidence

Monday/today:  Still very mild

Tuesday: Still very mild. No northern stream component to the flow like the Canadian ensembles.

GFS 0Z Ensemble average for temps right now below. Cold blast on top of us.

Temps just past day 5 below. Last of the cold in the Southeast.

Temps just past day 10 below. New mild pattern

Temps around day 15 below. Very widespread mild.

By metmike - Dec. 4, 2018, 10:33 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

Last week at the top, progressing to today:

Wednesday: Very wide spread and uncertainty. The NAO is close to zero, however, the AO is solidly negative which increases cold risks..........for now.

Thursday: AO is modestly negative. NAO around zero with less spread today.

Friday: Increase in the AO today, close to zero at the end of week 2. The NAO is just above zero then. This reduces the odds of cold in December.

Saturday:  AO stays around zero. NAO takes another substantive shift up and is solidly positive. This continues to reduce the odds of cold in mid December.

Sunday: Both NAO and AO close to zero in 2 weeks. This keeps the risk of extreme cold outbreaks lower than average for mid December.

Monday/Today: AO increasing sharply, drops a bit late. NAO spikes higher but is falling in week 2 back to zero.

Tuesday: Both AO and NAO close to zero late week 2 but with enough spread for plenty of certainty, especially in light of some of  the Canadian ensembles preferring the return to frigid weather.

By metmike - Dec. 4, 2018, 10:33 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated early this afternoon.

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Dec. 4, 2018, 10:35 a.m.
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By WxFollower - Nov. 24, 2018, 10:59 p.m.            


 Per history, with El Niño likely not getting any stronger than low end moderate, that is actually often a cold rather than warm signal for at least much of the eastern half of the US. I wasn’t sure if you realized this. Many of the coldest winters in the E US were actually weak to low end moderate El Niño’s: 1884-5, 1885-6, 1904-5. 1911-12, 1939-40, 1963-4. 1968-9, 1969-70, 1976-7, and 1977-8.

 Then again, we still have -AAM, which is most often associated with La Nina and usually not as cold for much of the E US. Having the -AAM in combo with El Nino is quite unusual from what I learned from Radiant though I wonder if it will hang on through winter.

Does anyone have a link to an historical monthly AAM table?


                By metmike - Nov. 25, 2018, 2:10 p.m.            


Good points on the weak El Nino correlating with more colder than average Winters in the East.

Maybe it's because the southern stream generated from El Nino was not strong enough to have an impact far enough downstream to deflect the northern stream, so the northern stream dominated:





       years ago, I don't put alot of stock in the accuracy of the magnitude since there were no widespread accurate  measurements from that time frame.

No doubt they had trade winds recorded and barometric pressures (and differences) at some locations that would be useful in getting a ball park type figure, maybe even a guess but the actual sea surface temp data needed to assess this metric was not there. 



                By metmike - Nov. 25, 2018, 2:43 p.m.            


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"Then again, we still have -AAM, which is most often associated with La Nina and usually not as cold for much of the E US."

My first thought was that La Nina's are cold in the East and memory tells me that some very strong La Nina's have featured extreme cold in the Midwest and East, however I checked and what you stated, not as cold in the East seems to be what's out there on the internet. I am skeptical.

To me, this flow diagram does not make sense meteorologically..........unless you shifted  the weather to the east/right several hundred miles. 

A high pressure ridge to Alaska and Western Canada will feature mild Winter conditions there, not cold.

The blue cold, would be escorted south, much farther east INTO the deep trough from the Midwest to the East Coast. 


                By metmike - Nov. 25, 2018, 2:46 p.m.            


I don't have any AAM historical data and have not studied this a great deal.

Thanks for bringing this up though Larry so that I can learn more about it. 


                     By WxFollower - Nov. 25, 2018, 4:30 p.m.            


1. I just found out I was wrong about there still being -AAM. It was that way in Sep. but it turned to +AAM in Oct  and has become strongly +AAM this month. So, disregard my concern about how El Nino tends to be with -AAM.

2.  Looking at records, the SE US and Mid Atlantic (I think to at least NYC) has averaged colder during weak to moderate El Nino than all La Nina's averaged out. I think the upper Midwest and most of the plains has averaged colder in La Nina. I'm not sure about the lower Midwest though I lean toward warmer in La Nina for Cincinatti.

3. IMO, there is plenty of data to suggest what years were El Nino and what were La Nina including SOI and various SST data. I've been using this for ~15 years.


                By Jim_M - Nov. 26, 2018, 10:22 a.m.            

            Back in October, the NWS 3-4 week experimental forecast was predicting a warmer second half of November.  Obviously that didn't happen.  The cold keeps rolling, and it looks like we will have 2 more withdrawals now.  This week and next.  

NG has been dropping the last week or 2, but the potential for those spikes is very intimidating, no matter what direction you are trading.  And with the chilly weather, those spikes are a very real possibility.  I read that some trading firms went belly up with that last spike.  



                Re: Re: Re: Weather Thursday            


                By Jim_M - Nov. 29, 2018, 10:43 a.m.            

24 degrees when I got in my car this November.  It's like January here in NE Ohio.  In fact it's colder than some of the January's we have had in the last couple years.  



                By WxFollower - Nov. 29, 2018, 1:17 p.m.            



 Despite the mild/pretty zonal maps that remain for the end of week 2 on the various ensemble means, there continue to be colder changes before, which is what is controlling most of the movements of NG imo. Jan NG is currently still over 4.600 even after a very bearish EIA. If the mild late week 2 maps were the primary mover, NG would be at least down into the low 4's imo especially after this very bearish EIA. But if the maps keep getting colder for weeks 1 and 2, overall, NG is not going to go down easily, if at all.


                By metmike - Nov. 29, 2018, 3:33 p.m.            


NG was on the way down.........until the MUCH colder 12z GFS operational model, followed by the MUCH colder GFS ensembles came out.

The cold changes were  entirely from the week 2 period.

Don't you agree Larry.

Also, the weakness overnight and early this morning, well before the EIA report, when we were already down 1,500/contract was from those products showing especially mild conditions vs the previous model runs for the same period. 

The European ensemble was colder overnight but no matter and this afternoon, its a bit milder and putting some pressure on NG.



                By WxFollower - Nov. 29, 2018, 4:23 p.m.            



 Radiant had slight cooler changes about equal in both weeks 1 and 2. The 12Z GFS suite changes were mostly in week 2. My point is that the end of week 2 snapshots showing mild day after day don't mean that much when many of the days before are revised colder. We could have day 15 mild maps for the rest of winter, but if maps are going to stay cold for much of the period before, NG is going to have a hard time dropping. I know you used to also show the snapshots of the GEFS at various periods before but you stopped. Also, you regularly only show the end of each  CDN ens run. But what about day 6, day 10, etc.? Those for each ensemble have been having more impact overall imo as they seem to keep delaying the change to warmer.


                                      By metmike - Nov. 29, 2018, 7:48 p.m.            


Thanks Larry,

The product that you mentioned, GFS ensemble mean going out 360 hours for each 24 hour period that I used to show a snap shot of is awesome.

I'll try to get back to doing that. 

I'm not locked in on using the individual ensembles at 360 hours and mainly use that product to show the huge possibilities for the pattern at the end of week 2.

This is the most uncertain part of the forecast of course and the one most likely to change which is part of why I use it. It's the most challenging of all and the most intriguing of all.

When we have a powerful weather pattern change evolving, it's most likely to start showing up during the week 2 period.

Evaluating this is the most fun for me.  Seeing a stronger cold front in days 5-7, within the same pattern(which just brings 3 colder days) then back to the pattern is important of course and you can see that on our high temps maps. 

I am not into breaking down each day to state whether its colder or not. Since I've not received a penny for doing this, its not like its a paying job either. Howe er, I take suggestions like yours very seriously because I want people to enjoy and use this stuff. 

I do it because I love weather and markets, it provides value to others and there are some great people here, like you that share that interest and are my friends.

I appreciate that very much.



                By Jim_M - Nov. 29, 2018, 8:17 p.m.            


Mike, what little I know of the weather I have learned from reading your posts.  The weather banter that goes on here is always fascinating.   Its no little thing that you take the time to update your posts everyday and it's appreciated.  That Wx chimes in to bounce thoughts off of you is interesting too.

Switching to NG and looking at 30000 ft view, I think injections are done.  


                            By metmike - Nov. 29, 2018, 10:34 p.m.            


Thanks jim,

You are probably right, although with the supply situation as potentially bearish as it is(not storage but supplies) a week of extremely mild temps at some point could cause a small injection........not predicting that though.

You were the guy, that all Summer told us that prices were too low because storage was too low. 

The market did not listen for months. Then we had some late season record heat, then we had some early season cold.

Then, we had the record cold and the huge gap higher on Sunday Night, November 5th.

So you were really proven correct!

Storage is now 644 bcf below last year as we end November.

NG did an incredible spike higher at 9:13.......... it spiked almost 1,500/contract. Looks like it took a couple of seconds.

Not sure what was going on but a zillion stops must have been hit......actually, maybe more like 500 lots or so. 



                Re: Weather Monday            


                By WxFollower - Dec. 3, 2018, 11:49 p.m.            


 Models have been showing a threat of a 12/8-10 major SE US winter storm for days with NC possibly getting the worst of the snow and areas to the WSW of the snow getting major sleet and freezing rain due to a cold air damming low level wedge that gets stuck east of the Appalachian peaks while warmer air flows above the wedge. This would also bring heavy cold rain further south  where they don’t need it.

By metmike - Dec. 4, 2018, 10:01 p.m.
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I don't hold much stock in long range forecasts, including the European 762 hour forecast, which is just over a month but apparently some frigid temps on the one that came out late yesterday.......for the end of December/early January is being sited as a big part of the strength in natural gas prices overnight and today.

With storage at 15 year lows, the power of cold to rally ng prices is greatly amplified.......or in this case,  the very speculative longer range forecast for cold. 

Well, here it is. The first 2 maps show cold outbreak #1, just after Christmas, followed by a frigid blast just after New Years day.

Maps  for December 27/28 below

Cross polar sourced frigid air plunging south during the first week in January shown on the map below.

Hey, I would never make this part of my forecast but its worth noting, if the market is trading fear.........of storage running precariously low before the end of the heating season and is going to dial in more risk premium for a very speculative item like this, despite the mild look to next weeks maps.

One should note that the  models have been too warm  much of the time since October, though their performance has improved a bit the last few days.

By WxFollower - Dec. 4, 2018, 11:16 p.m.
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 I respectfully disagree about that being a significant reason for NG to be up strongly today. Why? Weeks 2-5 average out mild at 2 meters despite the maps you showed. Only week 6 (1/7-14) is cold. If the Euro weeklies were really one of the main factors, why would it ignore the mild weeks 2-5 and skip to week 6? I think the answer is that nobody really knows and keep in mind that there are many forces affecting the market.

By metmike - Dec. 5, 2018, 10:18 a.m.
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This wasn't MY reason. Maybe I didn't make that clear. It was the reason given by Natural Gas Intelligence and I responded with the maps and indicated that I don't place much stock in skill for that period.