After trump tweets of China dropping tariffs on US made cars. The Chinese officials have not confirmed any deal as of yet.
And now Senior White House officials are walking back the fact that an agreement was ever made.
One has to wonder just how much the trump kids are making in front running these tweets in the stock and commodity markets.
It was great theater. Both Trump and Xi could come home claiming victory! Now the rubber hits the road and we see which one blinks first. But I would be surprised if anything happens. I will also be surprised if Trump doesn't continue with his plan of cranking up the tariff's on Jan 1st.
If he does it will seal the deal on the impending recession, I doubt that we could avoid it without the stupidity of the added tariffs but doubling down will lock it in.
His advisors will fight him but they and the US will lose
The yield curve is flatting out. 2year at 2.79% 5 year the same. and the 10 year at 2.99% this is considered by some to be a precursor of recession.
I may be misunderstanding, but I think you are referring to an inverted yield curve, which we don't have right now.
And yes, inverted yield curves are a good measure of investor sentiment and have preceded most recessions, but we have also had several inverted yield curves that were not followed by a recession.