Happy day after Thanksgiving to you! Just another day? Do something unique. Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it now.
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max. There is a big Winter Storm coming up and another big shot of cold behind it.
Here are the latest hazards across the country. Green is flooding. Brown is wind, Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory. Purple/Pink/blue is cold/Winter weather.
See the rest at the link below.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Winter Weather
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Snowfall forecast the next 3 days: Winter storm in the Plains/Midwest.
Forecast Hour: 084
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_084_snodpth_chng.gif
Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
High Temperatures today and tomorrow.
Warming up ahead of the next Winter blast. Record cold Northeast departs.
Highs for days 3-7:
The next blast of cold aimed at the NorthCentral US will be dropping southeast(Southeast US starts next week mild).
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?
Cold blue anomalies are back in the Midsection but not as extreme as earlier this month.
Low Temperature Departures:
Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:
Biiiiiiiig WINTER storm this weekend to next Monday. Next big blast of cold is dragged down behind it. Another weather system later in the week.
Pattern
The latest liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next week are below.
Some will be snow on the cold side of the Winter Storm.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Current Dew Points
New surge of very dry Arctic air in the Plains/Midwest right now.
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) |
Go to: Most Recent Image
Precipitation the past 24 hours
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
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Soil moisture anomaly:
Still wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.
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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day. Big data lacking blob in S.Plains will hopefully be fixed soon.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Friday.
Big disparity still. Some are very cold with northern stream a major player. Along with that, is the risk that part of the polar vortex will take another excursion unusually far south. This would replenish the frigid weather reservoir to Canada, that gets depleted leading up to this period.
Some have mild/zonal flow that cuts off the cold.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Dec 08, 2018 00 UTC
0Z GFS Ensembles
A great deal of uncertainty at this time frame but still leaning strongly to cold for this model! Threat for polar vortex to start moving south again is elevated today.
Upper level trough somewhere.
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them.
Sunday's comment: For late week 2 here on Sunday. Huge disparity and change from recent solutions.
The AO was in uncharted low territory for awhile last week.........with extreme cold indicated but now is shown to just temporarily spike down(not quite as extreme) and bouncing back towards zero but still negative and decent cold indicator.
The NAO was also strongly negative last week and is showing the same tendency, a spike lower but bouncing back towards zero...........still remaining a bit negative at the end of week 2, suggesting cold.
The day to day changes are big enough to generate low confidence.
Monday: 2nd day in a row that shows the same thing. Negative AO and NAO are recovering at the end of the period.........reducing the threat of extreme cold for early December.
Tuesday: The trend towards a reduction in the magnitude of the negative AO and NAO continues. It morphs towards zero at the end of the period, lessening the risks for extreme cold in early December.
Wednesday: AO and NAO diving into solid negatives then rebounding. AO STAYS negative, more so then Tuesday. NAO keeps rebounding to near zero at the end of 2 weeks. Huge spread and uncertainty.
Thursday: AO and NAO show the dive to negative being shorter lived than previous bouncing back closer to, if not all the way back to zero at the end of 2 weeks. This reduces cold risks in December.
Friday: Huge change late in the period. Negative AO and NAO, after bouncing back, on all members crash to extremely low values and the end of 2 weeks...............on a slight majority, while on a minority, keep going higher and even poke above zero.
The spread/disparity is "off the charts" especially with the AO but the average is MUCH colder than yesterday/Thursday.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated early this afternoon.
Friday's update. Widespread precip, some will be snow in the colder air(west?).
Widespread below normal temperatures, milder in the east, warmest along the Gulf Coast to Southeast.
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability |
the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
Extreme weather next week Tues-Saturday:
Previous discussion:
By WxFollower - Nov. 20, 2018, 4:34 p.m.
Mike,
Have you noticed that the average anomaly for US highs has been much colder than that for the lows, especially in recent weeks? Is that related to global warming and the very warm oceans? I know the SW Atlantic just off the SE US remains quite warm anomalywise though it is starting to cool some.
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By metmike - Nov. 20, 2018, 7:44 p.m.
Yes Larry, great observation!
Actually this has been going on for 2 decades.
It's been causing highs to be lower and lows to be higher. This has done several things.
It's decreased the diurnal temperature spread.
It's causing record warm minimums to exceed record warm maximums.
Related to that, its reducing record warm maximums vs where they would be and reducing record cold minimums.
It's been warming the coldest places on the planet the most, especially during the coldest times of year.
It's reduced extreme highs in the Summer vs where they would be without this going on.
I think the increase in H2O in the air can be part of it but the increase in CO2, causing the "greenhouse" effect could explain most of it by itself. This effect would be greatest in the coldest places and at night(Polar latitudes have night time conditions all Winter long), when long wave radiation dominates the heating signal......CO2 plays a key role with the long wave radiation...........more of it, means more heat stays in the atmosphere.
So higher minimums.
During the day solar, short wave radiation dominates the heating signal, so greenhouse gas warming from more weaker, long wave radiation is not as important. So not as many higher maximums because the intensity of the sun(TSI) has not changed much.
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By metmike - Nov. 20, 2018, 7:51 p.m.
This was a good article on it:
http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/record-warm-nighttime-temperatures-a-closer-look
But looking at these four types of records, it appears that nights have warmed even more: the average month recorded 10 percent more record high minimum temperatures than record high maximums. The record low temperatures tell an even more compelling story: it was much more likely for the daytime temperature to be colder than average than it was for the nighttime ones. There were only 1,235 record low minimum temperatures set per month, while there were 1,697 record low maximum temperatures set per month. By this measure, a record cold day was 40 percent more likely than a record cold night.
Interestingly, when I looked at different months of the year, I found that the nighttime warming was even greater during the summer. During June, July and August, record high minimum temperatures outnumbered record low minimum temperatures by about three to one.
More cloudiness could also explain part of it, as clouds trap heat from escaping at night and block heat from getting in during the day.
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By metmike - Nov. 21, 2018, 9:50 p.m.
See comments in the natural gas thread about the polar vortex and this being the coldest Thanksgiving in the last century in the East/Northeast:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/17783/
Week 3-4 look.....mid December.
Warmer and dry???
Week 3-4 Outlooks | ||
Valid: 08 Dec 2018 to 21 Dec 2018 Updated: 23 Nov 2018 | ||
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Temperature Probability | Precipitation Probability (Experimental) |