High Temperatures today and Saturday.

Here come da cold!  Still warm Southeast and Southwest.

Highs for days 3-7:

 
COLD BLASTS.

Coldest air starts receding later next week!

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 
Greatest cold anomalies shifting southeast from yesterdays maps from forecast progression of days out 1 more day.

Low Temperature Departures:

Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:

Cold Arctic High pressure settles in. Mostly dry and near record cold in the Midwest.

Possible Nor'easter, early next week.

Still the possibility of a Nor'easter early next week. The GFS operational model below is for next Tuesday.

gfs_namer_108_200_wnd_ht	gfs_namer_108_500_vort_ht
gfs_namer_108_1000_500_thick	gfs_namer_108_850_temp_ht

The latest precip forecasts for the next week are below.  

Heavier amounts will be well south and east of the Cornbelt.

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112

Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Winter Weather

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

Current Dew Points

Extremely dry air in the Plains to Midwest to East Coast.

Latest radar loop

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Rains the past 24 hours

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

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     Soil moisture anomaly:

Still  wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.  DRYING OUT in the Cornbelt for a long time(but very chilly air will mean drying rates will be minimal).

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Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Friday..............MUCH colder than yesterday's solution, especially the ensemble mean.

Several members re instate cross polar flow(that brought down the current cold) and have a pattern favorable for it to cross Canada, then flowing into  the NorthCentral US.  

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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 24, 2018 00 UTC

On some solutions, the mild, west to east flow from previous days has been replaced by meridional, north to south flow.  Also, cross polar flow bringing the coldest air in the N.Hemisphere in Siberia to this side of the N.Hemisphere is in play.

From yesterday:

"The cold risk would be cross polar flow cold  getting re established and bitter cold spreading into Canada'

Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

For late week 2 here on Thursday, both the AO and NAO forecasts have a great deal of spread again.  They are both close to zero at 14 days, with the AO leaning much more negative, which increases the chance of cold air outbreaks of Arctic air traveling south thru Canada into the US. The NAO, however is leaning slightly positive which lessens the chance of penetration of the cold to the East Coast. .

Just like weather maps having less skill in the later periods, the same is the case with the AO/NAO.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15793/

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated early this afternoon. Big Chill shifts east!!!!

Warm West, shifts eastward.

Dry across the country.

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

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Temperature Probability