Here are the latest hazards across the country.   Brown is wind, Gray is fog. See the rest at the link below. Pink is a red flag advisory.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                       

High Temperatures today and Monday.

Close to average Midwest to Northeast to East Coast. Warm West to Plains today to South.

Highs for days 3-7:

 
Chilly N.Plains to Upper Midwest, especially late in the week.

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

Anomalies not very far from average. Coolest in the Plains to Midwest, Warmest West.

Low Temperature Departures:

Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:

Especially active and wet from the Eastern Cornbelt to East Coast later this week.  

Current Dew Points

Latest radar loop

A few light showers

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Rains the past 24 hours

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

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     Soil moisture anomaly:

Still  wet in an enormous area. Drying will continue for the Western Midwest overall the next week. Getting wetter in the East later this week.

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Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Note how incredibly wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country!

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Sunday.  The mean/average of all the members looks pretty zonal and mild with slight troughing over most of the country. Cold air from higher latitudes is cut off.  A lot of the members still have a deeper(southern stream) trough somewhere in the US.  Very few of them have northern stream energy or a cold air source, so it appears unlikely that mid November is going to shift to a much colder temperature regime.

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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 12, 2018 00 UTC

Here are the 0Z GFS ensemble, individual solutions at 360 hours(2 weeks).

Overall, there is good agreement today on a mild, west to east or southwest to northeast flow. Potential upper level trough in West. Major cold air source is completely cut off. 

Better confidence at this time frame!

Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. Both are predicted to be close to zero at the end of 2 weeks. This lessens the chance of cold air outbreak surprises vs if they were strongly negative..........but the AO and NAO are also forecasts and can be wrong at 2 weeks.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15793/

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Updated early this afternoon.  It should  be(high confidence) very wet across much of the country, especially the east. Temps should be warm in the East and chilly farther west.

These outlooks over the weekend are automated. The extensiveness of the area of warmth in the West is debatable in my opinion. I agree with the huge area of green(elevated chances for above precip in most locals).

 The GFS and Canadian models keep the major cold locked up, well to the north in Canada(northeast of the Hudson Bay).

However, the European model has a decent shot of strong cold early in week 2, noted on the map below this page.

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.

Larry tells me that the source of this solution is a day old, so I am working on finding a source with the latest solution. Thank you WxFollower!

Widespread very mild conditions. Cold air is northeast of the Hudson Bay. 

Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

Precip below:

`12z operational European model is colder than the other models early in week 2. The first map is 850 mb temps(around a mile above the surface) on day 10. Strong cold shot is hitting the Midwest and East at that time. Below that is the 500 mb solution. MUCH deeper upper level trough than the other models across most of the US which in combination with upper level ridging off the West Coast(and extending weakly into Northwest Canada,  is directing air masses  from much farther north(higher latitudes in Canada) to move southward across the US border.......a caravan of cold air invading without our authorization (-:

Look how much warmer the 18z operational GFS was for the same time frame:

Note the location of the blues on the 850 mb map(bottom right).............north of the border. The -10 deg. C isotherm on the European model above is almost to Chicago but on the GFS, its in Central Canada over 1,000 miles farther north, with very mild, zonal flow/west to east flow on the GFS. 

The GFS does not have the ridge in the West or the troughing across much of the US that the European model has early in week 2.       

gfs_namer_234_200_wnd_ht	gfs_namer_234_500_vort_ht
gfs_namer_234_1000_500_thick	gfs_namer_234_850_temp_ht