High Temperatures today and Thursday.

Reinforcing cold front....cold shifting east.

Highs for days 3-7:

 
The very chilly  air will feature temperatures remaining 30+ degrees colder than the first 10 days of October............but the coldest air will be aimed farther east, towards the Midwest and especially the Northeast(where lots of people live and need heating) vs before, when the cold was aimed at the N.Plains.

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 Magnitude of cold anomalies shrinks compared to before and location shifts east.

Low Temperature Departures:

Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:

Chilly Canadian high pressure in charge. Reinforcing cold fronts this week with slight moderation in between. Mostly dry weather as the atmosphere will be dried out. Cold is directed farther east compared to last week.

 The latest rain forecasts for the next week are below. Advertised pattern change is here. Upcoming week will feature, widespread dry weather for the Cornbelt.

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112

Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Current Dew Points

Extraordinarily dry air in the Plains to Midwest to Northeast! First freezes and frosts of the season happening.  

Latest radar loop.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Rains the past 24 hours

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

Soil moisture anomaly:

Much too wet in a large area. Drying has commenced in all of the Midwest!!!

Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Note how incredibly wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country!

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.

Today:  The cold is here for awhile!.

 Very warm squeezed into the far southeast. Warming West.

In 5+ days:

Warm West. New cold surges aimed farther east.

In 10+ days: Magnitude of anomalies is not that great.Fluctuating temps. Warm west, chilly eastward.

Day 15:  Upper level ridge West with warm air. Upper level trough with chilly air downstream/Midwest/East.

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Wednesday.  Ridge West with warm temps, trough downstream Midwest/East with chilly temps. Mostly dry. 
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 01, 2018 00 UTC

The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.

Similar to Tuesday. Strong Upper level ridge in Alaska/NW Canada/West Coast........... upper level trough downstream and very chilly temperatures for the eastern 1/2 of the USA in week 3. But this shifts east, along with warming.

Dry for harvest.

Heating degree days(from cold weather) have replaced cooling degree days(from hot weather) at this time of year.

Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

Precip below:

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Updated just after 2pm CDT this afternoon. Warm west very chilly east........as expected.

Turning wet again????

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Prob

12z GFS operational model before noon,  very chilly in week 2:

gfs_namer_300_200_wnd_ht	gfs_namer_300_500_vort_ht
gfs_namer_300_1000_500_thick	gfs_namer_300_850_temp_ht

Extreme weather days 3-7. 

Cold in the Northeast. Wet in Southeast TX.

Extreme weather days 8-14:

Wet in the deep south!

We need some dry weather in the worst way. We haven't cut a bean yet, I never remember being this late to start before. We are still a couple days away from being able to go. 

Great to hear from you Kansas.

You've had over 6 times the average rain over the past 2 weeks, with some places in eastern KS getting 10 inches.

Good news for the next week with the wet weather shifted south:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126