KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, October 15, 2018
8:30 AM ET. September Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
8:30 AM ET. October Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 19.0)
Employment Idx (previous 13.3)
New Orders Idx (previous 16.5)
Prices Received (previous 16.3)
10:00 AM ET. August Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +0.6%)
Tuesday, October 16, 2018
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +0.6%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +4.2%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.9%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +6.5%)
9:15 AM ET. September Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 78.2%; previous 78.1%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.2)
10:00 AM ET. August Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
10:00 AM ET. October NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (expected 67; previous 67)
4:00 PM ET. August Treasury International Capital Data
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +9.7M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.4M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.5M)
Wednesday, October 17, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 346.7)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.7%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 238.0)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.1%)
Refinance Idx (previous 921.2)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -2.6%)
8:30 AM ET. September New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.21M; previous 1.282M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected -5.6%; previous +9.2%)
Building Permits (expected 1.28M; previous 1.229M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected +4.1%; previous -5.7%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 409.951M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +5.987M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 236.172M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.951M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 133.465M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.666M)
Refinery Usage (previous 88.8%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.823M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.351M)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and economic forecast
Thursday, October 18, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1006.7K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 444.3K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 339K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 213K; previous 214K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +7K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1660000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +4K)
8:30 AM ET. October Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 20; previous 22.9)
Prices Paid (previous 39.6)
Employment (previous 17.6)
New Orders (previous 21.4)
Prices Received (previous 19.6)
Delivery Times (previous 11.1)
Inventories (previous -3.5)
Shipments (previous 19.6)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. September Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.4%)
Leading Index (previous 111.2)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2956B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +90B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
N/A Alaska Day
Friday, October 19, 2018
10:00 AM ET. September Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. September Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (expected 5.3M; previous 5.34M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (expected -0.7%; previous +0.0%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 4.3)
Median Price (USD) (previous 264800)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +4.6%)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as global stocks failed to join a rally that came late last week on the heels of a multi-session rout that left major indexes at their worst weekly finishes since March. Investors were also waiting for retail sales data and earnings from financials such as Bank of America. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7470.49 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 6898.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7340.52. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 7728.75. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 6898.35. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 6720.95.
The December S&P 500 was lower overnight and is poised to extend the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2720.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2886.31 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2849.55. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 2945.50. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2725.50. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2720.80.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher price are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 139-08 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 134-04 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139-08. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 141-04. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 136-16. Second support is monthly support crossing at 134-04.
December T-notes was higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the rebound off October's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.117 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 114.192 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.117. Second resistance is the September 28th reaction high crossing at 119.000. First support is October's low crossing at 117.135. Second support is monthly support crossing at 114.192.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: NovemberNymex crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If November extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.58 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 75.28 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 76.90. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.23. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.59. Second support is September's low crossing at 66.67.
November heating oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 224.84 is the next downside target. If November resumes the rally off August's low, the November-2014 high crossing at 254.68 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 245.00. Second resistance is the November-2014 high crossing at 254.68. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 224.84. Second support is September's low crossing at 219.43.
November unleaded gas was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off October's high, August's low crossing at 184.02 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 204.45 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 204.45. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 215.00. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 190.81. Second support is August's low crossing at 184.02.
November Henry natural gas was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.107 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November resumes the rally off September's low, the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 3.368. Second resistance is the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.107. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.984.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight and poised to extend the decline off Tuesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 96.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 95.84. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.66. Second support is September's low crossing at 93.39.
The December Euro was higher overnight and is poised to extend the rally off last-Tuesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.82 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December resumes the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 114.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 118.93. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 119.36. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 114.93. Second support is August's low crossing at 114.09.
The December British Pound was steady to slightly lower in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 1.3350 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 1.2845 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3350. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. First support is October's low crossing at 1.2963. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.2845.
The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0281 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off September's high, July's low crossing at 1.0082 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0281. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0288. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.0106. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.0082.
The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 75.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.33 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.33. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 78.35. First support is the September 27th low crossing at 76.56. Second support is September's low crossing at 75.75.
The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. Stochastics and the RSI overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0900 would open the door for additional short-covering gains near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0889 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0900. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0912. First support is October's low crossing at 0.0877. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1204.70 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1236.90. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1184.30. Second support is August's low crossing at 1167.10.
December silver was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 14.950 would renew the rally off September's low. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 14.255 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 14.950. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.070. First support is September's low crossing at 13.965. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.
December copper was slightly lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the July 25th reaction high crossing at 288.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 25th reaction high crossing at 288.85. Second resistance is the July 10th reaction high crossing at 290.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.78. Second support is September's low crossing at 258.00.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.75 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.62 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.75 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 3/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3.60 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.54 1/2.
December wheat was slightly higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.32 3/4 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off the late-September high, September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.32 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.49 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.05 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 10 1/2-cents at 5.24 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.41 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.35 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.41. First support is October's low crossing at 5.06 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.98 3/4 would open the door for additional gains and a possible test of the August 31st high crossing at 6.02. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.86 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.98 3/4. Second resistance is the August 31st high crossing at 6.02. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.72. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were lower overnight following. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November renews the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.53 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 8.74. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.07. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.53 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4.
December soybean meal was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past five-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 313.00 would signal that a double top with September's high was likely posted on Monday. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 322.40 would mark a potential upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 322.40. Second resistance is the August-15th reaction high crossing at 339.40. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 303.80. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 301.20.
December soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 30.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 30.01. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 30.53. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.67. Second support is September's low crossing at 27.13.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
December hogs closed up $0.58 at $55.00.
December hogs closed higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 54.06 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off August low, June's high crossing at 60.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 59.95. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 60.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 54.06. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 50.07.
December cattle closed down $0.60 at 116.18.
December cattle closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.51 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.95 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 119.75. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 122.88. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.51. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 113.80.
November Feeder cattle closed down $2.13 at $154.63.
November Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 153.76 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 158.18 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 159.58. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 159.90. First support is today's low crossing at 154.45. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 153.76.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 117.61 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
December cocoa closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.96 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off August's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 18.71 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 13.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.68 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.
December cotton closed higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.70 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 81.07 is the next upside target. If December resumes decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 74.00 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!