KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, September 27, 2018
8:30 AM ET. August Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous -1.7%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -1.0%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.9%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 201K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -3K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1645000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -55K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1393.4K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 997.6K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 468.4K)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Revised Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter 3rd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +4.2%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.0%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous +3.7%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.9%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.3%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +5.3%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Ex Food/Energy, Q/Q% (previous +2.0%
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +3.8%)
8:30 AM ET. August Advance Economic Indicators Report
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. August Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 106.2)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -0.7%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -2.3%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2722B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +86B)
11:00 AM ET. Sept. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 10)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 44)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 14)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 29)
3:00 PM ET. September Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -3.8%)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, September 28, 2018
8:30 AM ET. August Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (previous+0.3%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.3%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.0%)
9:45 AM ET. September ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (previous 63.6)
10:00 AM ET. September University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 96.2)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 87.1)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.6%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 110.3)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The December NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, August's high crossing at 7723.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 7420.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the reaction low crossing at 7316.50. First resistance is August's high crossing at 7723.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the reaction crossing at 7420.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 7343.25.
The December S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average low crossing at 2907.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends this summer's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 2945.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2907.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2869.76.
The Dow closed lower on Wednesday as the number of declining stocks is outnumbering advances 1,435 to 1,390 on the NYSE. Meanwhile, the volume in declining stocks represented 57.9% of total volume on the Big Board. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,179.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow resumes the rally off April's low, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 26,769.16. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 26,385.55. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,179.97.
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December T-bonds closed up 29/32's at 140-22.
December T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the third time this year and signaled it will raise the cost of borrowing again in December, but the central bank also left a hint it could pause at some point to assess how its rate hikes are affecting the economy. The Fed increased its target for its benchmark lending rate to a range of 2% to 2.25%. Rates are now at their highest level since shortly after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the fall of 2008. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 138-28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 141-31 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 140-25. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 141-31. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 139-17. Second support is May's low crossing at 138-28.
December T-notes closed up 120-points at 118-265.
December T-notes closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 118.000 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.107 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 118.263. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.107. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 118.110. Second support is May's low crossing at 118.000.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
November crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 72.78. Second resistance isthe 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.22.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.57. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.83.
November heating oil closed steady to slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, the December-2014 high crossing at 237.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 224.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 232.05. Second resistance is the December-2014 high crossing at 237.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 224.63. Second support is September's low crossing at 219.43.
November unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 207.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 198.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 206.35. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 207.56. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 198.94. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 194.31.
November Henry natural gas closed sharply lower due to profit taking on Wednesday after falling short of testing resistance by June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.876 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November extends the aforementioned rally, the December-2017 high crossing at 3.085 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.062. 0Second resistance is the December-2017 high crossing at 3.085. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.908. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.876.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The December Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 93.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 94.52 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 95.28. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. First support is July's low crossing at 93.04. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the February-August-rally crossing at 92.92.
The December Euro closed lower on Wednesday while extending the trading range of the past four-days. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If December extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 119.36 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 117.19 is needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 118.93. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 119.36. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 117.19. Second support is September's low crossing at 116.13.
The December British Pound closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3054 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 1.3070. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.3586. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3054. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.2845.
The December Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0423 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0605 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.0559. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0605. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0423. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0335.
The December Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 77.84 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 77.75. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 77.84. First support is the reaction low crossing at 76.67. Second support is September's low crossing at 75.75.
The December Japanese Yen closed unchanged on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 0.0886 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0905 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0912. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 0.0918. First support is today's low crossing at 0.0889. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 0.0886.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
October gold closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower are possible near-term. If October resumes the decline off April's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10 is the next downside target. If October resumes the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 1239.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1215.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1239.80. First support is trading range support crossing at 1187.40. Second support is August's low crossing at 1162.70.
December silver closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends Tuesday's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.881 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the decline off June's high, the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 14.595. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.881. First support is September's low crossing at 13.965. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.
December copper closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 288.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 269.95 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 288.85. Second resistance is the July-5th gap crossing at 293.10. First support is August's low crossing at 257.45. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 251.03.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed down 3/4-cents at 3.63.
December corn closed closed fractionally lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.67 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.53 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.67 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.82 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.53 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.42 1/2. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.40 1/2.
December wheat closed down 3 1/4-cents at 5.17 1/2.
December wheat closed lower on Wednesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If December extends the rebound off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.42 1/4 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 4.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction crossing at 5.32 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.42 1/4. First support is September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.90.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 1-cents at 5.21.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.50 1/4 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 4.93 3/4 is the next downside target.First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.35 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.50 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.97. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.93 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down 3 1/2-cents at 5.77 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.95 3/4 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 5.42 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.95 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.02. First support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.42 1/4.
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November soybeans closed up 4 1/4-cents at 8.50.
November soybeans closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.63 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off July's high, psychological support crossing at 8.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.63 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.07. First support is monthly support crossing at 8.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 8.00.
December soybean meal closed up $1.50 at 310.70.
December soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 321.40 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 289.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 321.40. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 339.40. First support is September's low crossing at 301.60. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 289.50.
December soybean oil closed up 10 pts. at 28.75.
December soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. If December extends the rally off September's low, the July 31st reaction high crossing at 29.39 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 28.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 29.00. Second resistance is the July 31st high crossing at 29.39. First support is September's low crossing at 27.13. Second support is monthly support crossing at 26.99.
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October hogs closed down $0.23 at $62.20.
October hogs closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August low, the 75% retracement level of the February-August-decline crossing at 65.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 58.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 63.03. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-August-decline crossing at 65.55. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 58.47. Second support is the September 18th gap crossing at 56.77.
October cattle closed up $1.53 at 113.88.
October cattle closed sharply higher on Wednesday and has renewed the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 115.24 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 113.98. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 115.24. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.17. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.37.
October Feeder cattle closed up $1.83 at $158.30.
October Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, weekly resistance crossing at 160.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 154.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 159.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 160.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 154.63. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152.61.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 9.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.02 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
December cocoa closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 21.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October sugar closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below August's low crossing at 9.91. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off September's high, the June-2008 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 9.44 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
December cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 74.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!