September 21, 2018 This day in history
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Started by metmike - Sept. 21, 2018, 1:07 p.m.

Pick a good(or bad) one. I get the hurricanes!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_21

1934 – A large typhoon hits western Honshū, Japan, killing more than three thousand people.


1938 – The Great Hurricane of 1938 makes landfall on Long Island in New York. The death toll is estimated at 500–700 people.


Note the years of those cyclones..............almost a century ago. Last week, we were hearing that a storm as strong as Florence was "predicted" to be the strongest for so far north when it hit North Carolina with winds of a major cat. 3 hurricane.

 As if stronger hurricanes are now threatening places farther north that never experienced major hurricanes before.

A big part of the reason that they can state this, is because people don't have hurricane/weather records at home to check history. 

Florence tracked over some warmer waters the last 2 days in the Atlantic and was supposed to strengthen to 155 mph..........but instead weakened to a 95 mph. 

What happened?

Using ocean water temperatures proved unable to be used to predict the intensity of a hurricane the following 2 days.

Lesson to be learned. There are numerous elements involved with forecasting hurricanes. Models that project hurricanes for the next 100 years, that dial up temperatures and project catastrophic, unprecedented hurricanes are still just computer simulations based on speculative theories that go well beyond(exaggerate) what we know with higher confidence. 

Comments
By metmike - Sept. 21, 2018, 1:10 p.m.
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1938 New England hurricane


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_New_England_hurricane


"It remains the most powerful and deadliest hurricane in recorded New England history, perhaps eclipsed in landfall intensity only by the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635


What the heck, you mean there was an even stronger one............during "The Little Ice Age" when global temperatures were the coldest they've been in the last 2,000+ years??

By metmike - Sept. 21, 2018, 1:19 p.m.
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Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Colonial_Hurricane_of_1635


The Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 was a severe hurricane which brushed Virginia and then passed over southeastern New England in August of that year. Accounts of the storm are very limited, but it was likely the most intense hurricane to hit New England since European colonization.

Meteorological history

 

Map plotting the track and the intensity of the storm, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale

By metmike - Sept. 21, 2018, 1:54 p.m.
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By the way, the beneficial warming that we've seen over the last 150 years of 1.6 Deg F has likely caused a 5% increase in the rains coming from tropical systems like Florence.

If we lowered CO2 back down to 1850 levels and cooled the atmosphere back down, Florence may only have produced 34 inches of rain instead of the max of 36 inches. 

Oh yeah, 1 billion people on the planet would also starve to death and food prices would triple within 3 years. The increase in CO2 and best crop growing weather in the last 1,000 years(since it was last this warm) has increased world food production by 25%.

Do you want 5% less rain in hurricanes(and slightly weaker winds) or to be able to feed 1 billion more people on the planet?


Crops just keep exceeding expectations but almost nobody gives increasing CO2 and the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years any credit:

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProd/CropProd-09-12-2018.txt

By carlberky - Sept. 21, 2018, 4:40 p.m.
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1981 – Sandra Day O'Connor is unanimously approved by the U.S. Senate as the first female Supreme Court justice.

I picked this one because of the contrast to the present day partisanship displayed by both parties.

By metmike - Sept. 21, 2018, 5:25 p.m.
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Carl,

Thanks for weeding thru the hurricane stuff for your pick.

We should thank Reagan for this pick. 


https://www.conservapedia.com/Sandra_Day_O%27Connor


Sandra Day O'Connor was the first woman Associate Justice ever appointed to the United States Supreme Court. A classmate and friend of then-Justice William Rehnquist, O'Connor was appointed in 1981 by President Ronald Reagan to fulfill his campaign promise to appoint the first women to the U.S. Supreme Court.


Reagan did not bother to interview any other candidates for the job, thereby making almost no effort to nominate a real conservative.

Justice O'Connor then provided the pivotal 5th vote to the liberal wing of the Court in the important abortion, affirmative action, campaign finance and Establishment Clause cases.  In October 2013, Justice O'Connor performed the second-ever homosexual marriage at the U.S. Supreme Court.[3]