It's aleady September 20th. Do something special for somebody to remember today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it.
Heavy rains shift south/southeast!
The latest rain forecasts are below.
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Excessive Rain threat
Upper Midwest today but shifting south quickly.
Current Day 1 Forecast
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Day 3 forecast below
Severe Storm Risk.
September rarely has severe weather...........so a bit unusual. Midwest today, shfting east on Friday.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Current Day 1 Outlook | |
Current Day 2 Outlook | |
Current Day 3 Outlook | |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
High Temperatures today and Friday:
Widespread heat. Very Chilly Northern Plains, plunging south.
Highs days 3-7.
Very warm Southeast but chilly air Northern tier sinks southeast. CDD's still in the south. But HDD's in the north.
Dew points.
70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!
Some higher dewpoints pooling northward ahead of the cold front from the Gulf of Mexico to Midwest. Much cooler and drier air N.Plains.
Heat Index:
Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature. Will feel hotter from humidity in many places. Afternoon readings 110+
Current Surface features:
Major weather system in the Plains to Upper Midwest taking front stage the next 2 days.
https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather
Satellite picture.
Midwest clouds.
Rains the past 24 hours.
Heavy in the Midwest, especially S.MN and IA.
You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Soil moisture anomaly:
Too wet in a huge area from massive September rains!
Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
Southern Midwest has dried out with more rain on the way there.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
Drought Monitor.
This product is updated every Thursday. This measure takes into account the long term precip/sub soil moisture and goes back over MANY months. Top map is this week. Map below it was last week.
Drought in the West.
Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in white.
Today/tomorrow: New cool surge N.Plains pushing south and east. Very warm S. Midwest to Southeast half.
In 5+ days:
Cold in Canada plunging deeply south.
In 10+ days:
Chilly blast! Hello heating degree days!!!
Day 15 Warm anomalies far Northwestern Canada.....cool downstream. How far southeast will the real chilly air be? Will the heat ridge try to rebuild in the East?
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Thursday. Ridge west, trough downstream in the Midwest..........some members pretty extreme. This is chilly with HDD's more like late October in the North.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Oct 05, 2018 00 UTC
The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4.
Extreme Upper level ridging Alaska. Very chilly air downstream.
Heating degree days(from cold weather) are replacing cooling degree days(from hot weather) as being the most important as we get into October.
Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:
Precip below:
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks. As we end September and turn the calendar page to October, very chilly air from Canada pouring in!!
Pretty wet too. It's already been one of the wettest first half of Septembers ever.
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability | |
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability | |
