August Budget Deficit Larger than Expected
14 responses | 0 likes
Started by joj - Sept. 16, 2018, 9:55 a.m.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-budget-value

I'm just a dumb city liberal.  Perhaps some smart folks here can explain why tax receipts in August 2018 declined from August 2017.  I thought when you cut taxes the receipts were supposed to go up.  

My guess is that the deep state or the media (enemy of the people) are somehow to blame.

I'm totally ok with the moderator moving this post to NTR.  

Comments
By TimNew - Sept. 16, 2018, 10:24 a.m.
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OK,  here's the deal.  You focus on August which showed a decline for the month year over year, and I'll focus on April, which showed the largest level of revenue, and the largest monthly budget surplus ever, in history..   That way,  you can say things are terrible, and I can say things are great.


Orrrr,   we can look at the fact that federal revenue for fiscal '18 is up 18.6 billion, or roughly .67% over the same time last year and that the total deficit, even with August's bloated deficit, is 898 billion YTD and that September typically shows a surplus meaning the deficit will fall far short of the trillion plus forecasts we've been hearing and that with the current economic expansion, revenues will likely continue to rise meaning fiscal '19 will look much better since tax cuts of this nature take a minimum of 5-6 quarters to fully develop.


You decide.

By mcfarm - Sept. 16, 2018, 10:39 a.m.
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well explained Tim...just like you have done here a dozen times or so...problem is some are so addicted to TDS they don't care

By joj - Sept. 16, 2018, 11:13 a.m.
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Barrons has an article in this weeks issue about expanding deficits going forward.

Fake news I guess.

By TimNew - Sept. 16, 2018, 12:20 p.m.
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You can read and live by projections all day long.  I prefer to use actual numbers because it seems just about every prediction on the economy in general and the deficit in particular  I've seen so far has been quite wrong.

By mcfarm - Sept. 16, 2018, 12:23 p.m.
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yes projection pm election nite Hillary had  96% chance, go ahead with that cover on Time magazine...I think you could easily make a good case that projections are indeed fake news

By MarkB - Sept. 16, 2018, 1:34 p.m.
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With all the tax cuts, business expansion, "trade wars", and tough love negotiations done by T, I have been doing better myself. Which meaans that I will be paying more taxes. Multiply that by several 10s of millions, and revenue is going to go up on the annual basis. And that doesn't account for all the other taxes that are bringing in more revenue, since people have more to spend. And it's happening on all levels.

But if you want to cut the deficit, then you have to go to the House. Because that is where all the spending begins. 

By cliff-e - Sept. 16, 2018, 1:47 p.m.
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Rural economy is in a shambles due to Trump's trade war killing ag exports to China. We've heard of grain and rail loading elevators in North Dakota not accepting soybean deliveries due to the PNW grain export market being dead. Less income means less money to spend and thus less taxable economic activity.

Trump's latest rendition of Trickle Down (Tinkle Down) economics whether it be thru trade distorting tariffs or tax cuts for the rich has failed miserably.

By TimNew - Sept. 16, 2018, 2:20 p.m.
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"Trump's latest rendition of Trickle Down (Tinkle Down) economics whether it be thru trade distorting tariffs or tax cuts for the rich has failed miserably."


As long as you ignore all the data, like the GDP, Personal Income and Spending, Hourly earnings, unemployment and participation rates,  reams of other data indicating expansion in economy and earnings, even the Fed response to a potentially overheating economy,   your statement makes perfect sense

By frey_1999 - Sept. 16, 2018, 9:45 p.m.
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to explain how come when we had a motivated economy  (Obama had multiple qtrs of over 4% growth )  the republicans demand that we get the budget defeict down and they started sequester and spending cuts. Helping to cut annual deficits from the 1.45 trillion he inherited from Bush to 438 billion but in order to do that we took a hit to GDP.  Yet under the current clown in office and the party in control of both the House and Senate  we have found that doubling the deficit is acceptable?


Or was it just a case of the Republicans knowing they had to somehow derail the economy  in order for them to have a chance at regaining political control. 


The dems are the party of tax and spend the republicans are the party of borrow and spend leaving or grandchildren to pay the bill and all the while centering the wealth in the hands of the few.  

By frey_1999 - Sept. 16, 2018, 9:58 p.m.
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your hero took a $450 billion defeict and turned it into a  $850 billion dollar defeict and you feel that is something to brag about because he has not hit a trillion  WOW

By MarkB - Sept. 17, 2018, 1:17 a.m.
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Spending is totally out of control. From billions of $ to countries that use those funds for anything other than anything to benefit their society, and even those who are in every aspect against the US, to extremely wasteful spending in the military.

I know that is a lot of ground to cover. But I would expect a serious trader to be able to comprehend and cover that amount of ground on a daily basis. Otherwise, you're just a fake.

By cliff-e - Sept. 17, 2018, 6:54 a.m.
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Trump's trade war and how it's affected rural America...the backbone of the economy.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/brutal-map-shows-u-s-farmers-want-trump-end-trade-war-123443562.html

Less income =less taxable economic activity = larger deficits.

By frey_1999 - Sept. 17, 2018, 8:15 p.m.
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Not really much ground to cover at all pretty simple.


Any and all tax cuts must be balanced with 110% in spending cuts.


It seemed important when Obama was president but forgotten when trump and his stooges got control.


trump and the right wing had control of everything and blew up the budget.


and btw most anybody in a high school econ class could figure it out.


lastly my questions are still unanswered so if you would care to answer them that would be great

By TimNew - Sept. 18, 2018, 4:13 a.m.
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I'm certainly not bragging.  I just related facts.   Some people look at that as bragging.  Never understood that.


In the opening post here, the single month of August was presented as an accurate representation of the entire picture. There are some who like to do that sort of thing..  You know, take a small piece and call that the whole picture.  Frey did the exact same thing in February.  Is this a leftist thing?


Closest thing I did to bragging was pointing out that the deficit, while up,  is no where near the dire predictions we've been bombarded with for most of the last year..   Income is up,  but congress passed a lot of new spending.  I think income will continue to rise.   If they hold spending, the deficit will shrink, particularly when calculated as a percentage of GDP.


I suppose some will see this as bragging,  but that's not really the intention.


Now, the deficit/eco revision attempts just can't go without comment. Obama inherited a 1.45 trillion deficit from Bush and cut it to 438 billion?   Libs constantly try to pass this off.


The 1.45 trillion deficit was part of a budget passed by a dem congress never signed by Bush.  Obama then added an 800+ Billion stimulus (that did little or nothing) before signing, and libs like to call this the "Bush Deficit".  Then they go on to credit Obama will trimming the deficit, all the while demonizing Pubs for their evil and heartless spending cuts.  (Think of the two claims occurring simultaneously and try not to laugh).   Then they talk about all of Obama's 4+ GDP qtrs  while leaving out the qtrs. that actually had near 0 or negative GDP or that Obama was the 1st president who NEVER had a GDP north of 3 and was the 1st president who assured us the 2.1 GDP was the new normal while assuring us that the jobs he now tries to take credit for are never coming back while several economic measures, which have since greatly improved, were in contraction at the end of his eco-reign of terror. 


It's almost fun to watch until you realize that these people actually vote.


United States GDP Growth Rate