Sadly, we have to start out this new thread with this. As a result, natural gas prices spiked higher.

Israel strikes Iran natural gas facility in coordination with U.S.

https://www.axios.com/2026/03/18/israel-strikes-iran-natural-gas-infrastructure

+++++++++++

Natural gas, immediately following the war had been trading in sympathy with rising crude prices but they came to its senses and had been trading back to US demand/supply fundamentals until this strike happened.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

1. 1 week

2. 1 month

+++++++

 Futures Settle: Natural Gas Rises as Middle East Strikes Ignite Global LNG Risk       

April Nymex natural gas futures rebounded Wednesday after testing a two-week low, drawing support from a global energy rally sparked by an Israeli strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field and subsequent retaliatory attacks.

Extremely mild temperatures for the eastern half of the country with numerous high population centers that were NOT using much natural gas for residential home heating.

We should have an early season injection!!! Maybe the biggest one for so early in the season?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

Natural gas joined crude on DT’s announcement of a 5 day delay in attacking Iran’s power grids and plunged >4%!

Thanks very much, Larry!

I apologize for ignoring my favorite market, instead paying more attention to markets impacted by the war in Iran.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

1. 1 month: The natural gas spike higher from the war was pretty wimpy compared to crude and has been in a downtrend after the initial high. Potentially breaking out to the down side of a descending triangle/wedge. 

2. 1 year: Wimpy blip higher from the unjustified Netanyahu/Trump war. We're at MEGA support right now and seasonals turn extremely positive for the next 2 months. NEWS is dominating so many markets right now and NG has been 1 of them(muted compared to crude) but its still extraordinarily dangerous to trade at this point in time.

3. 10 years:  We can draw all sorts of lines. 2 of them make a symmetrical triangle(lower highs and higher lows) that we might be breaking out to the downside from. Or this could be breaking out of a descending wedge/triangle. There are 2 different downtrending lines. 1 longer term from the 2022 extreme high and the other one with an extreme downward slope from the spike high earlier this year(from the extreme cold blast).

 This can be an excellent market to trade weather NEWS, if you put on your position before the market reacts. Best time to do that is November-February, during the main heating season when residential demand gobbles up the most ng BY A WIDE MARGIN compared to any other time of the year. We're at the tail end of the heating season now and the weather traders don't care much about the HDD forecasts anymore. However, seasonal bottoms almost always take place in this time frame out to early April.

++++++++++++++++++++

This was the spike up/ from that frigid air mass earlier this year, followed by an incredible spike lower on Sunday night's open. The very frigid forecast on Friday, caused in incredible spike higher(blow off top) then  turned MUCH milder over the weekend and we gap opened almost $7,000/contract lower on Sunday night. 

This was unprecedented, even for natural gas.

                Re: NG 2/2/26-           

                            By metmike - Feb. 2, 2026, 1:49 a.m.            

By metmike - Feb. 1, 2026, 10:51 p.m.            

1. Top line was Friday's close = +$5,000/contract

2. 2nd line was Friday's low

3. 3rd line was Sunday's open and high, -$6,000/contract. The space between the 2nd and 3rd line was/is a downside break away gap. 

After immediately spiking to -$7,200/contract shortly after the open, we fought back up close to the open, testing the bottom of the gap/high and have fallen back close to mid range as I type.

This was last week's EXTREMELY bearish EIA INJECTION!

Note the blue line on the graph turning UP a couple of weeks earlier than the seasonal bottom of the 5 year average gray line! Also crossing over/above that 5 year average for the first time in the last several weeks. Stocks are also +177 Bcf compared to last year. This is why the current price is below $3 and at the lows of the last year.

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending March 13, 2026   |  Released: March 19, 2026 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: March 26, 2026 

Summary

Working gas in storage was 1,883 Bcf as of Friday, March 13, 2026, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 35 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 177 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 47 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,836 Bcf. At 1,883 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2021 through 2025. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

1. 1 month

2. 10 years

A seasonal low typically occurs in this time frame into April. Every year is different.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

1. 1 month: I should have drawn another line of support on this chart just below 2.8. 

++++++++++++++++++++++

Don't be short natural gas from late March thru May without a real good reason!

https://charts.equityclock.com/natural-gas-futures-ng-seasonal-chart

++++++++++++

RECORD HEAT in the southwest. Chilly Midwest to East. Not as bearish as last weeks unusually large INJECTION for so early in the year from the beneficial warmth in those locations with high population density reducing the heating demand from burning natural gas. 

This latest report should actually be bullish vs average for mid March. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

          Futures Settle: Natural Gas Prices Gain as War Risks Offset Mildest March in 14 Years                                     

Natural gas futures edged higher Wednesday, reversing earlier losses as Tehran’s rejection of a U.S. peace plan kept war risks in play, with LNG feed gas demand and bullish storage expectations also supporting prices.

 Yesterday’s EIA release was slightly bullish vs avg guesses due to a slightly larger than expected pull of -54 vs The Desk’s survey /median guess of -45 to -47. As Mike noted earlier in the week, this draw was aided by an unusual combo of higher than avg cold driven HDD in the E half of the US and unusually high heat driven CDD in the SW. Compare this -54 to the very bearish +35 of the prior release due to widespread E US strong warm anomalies:

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

for week ending March 20, 2026   |   Released: March 26, 2026 at 10:30 a.m.   |   Next Release: April 2, 2026 

Summary

Working gas in storage was 1,829 Bcf as of Friday, March 20, 2026, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 54 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 90 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 14 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,815 Bcf. At 1,829 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.

Excellent post, Larry!  I was meaning to post this a dozen times yesterday but was so focused  tracking the weather and following the CL and stock market and the latest on this war and NG is NOT trading weather (and am getting old, quite frankly), while trying to catch up on things at home........that I forgot.

This is great, thanks!

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

1. 1 month

2. 1 year

11 am: Midmorning Markets: Technical Barriers Contain Natural Gas Futures — For Now

https://naturalgasintel.com/news/midmorning-markets-technical-barriers-contain-natural-gas-futures-for-now/

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

About as expected!

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending March 27, 2026   |  Released: April 2, 2026 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: April 9, 2026 

Summary

Working gas in storage was 1,865 Bcf as of Friday, March 27, 2026, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 36 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 96 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 54 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,811 Bcf. At 1,865 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Unseasonable warmth across much of the country. Cold along the Canadian border. Bearish from reduced residential heating demand. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

+++++++++++++++++

Note the blue line on the graph below is moving ABOVE the 5 year average! Storage is building a bit EARLIER than average from the very warm temps.

https://ir.eia.gov/secure/ngs/ngs.html?Policy=eyJTdGF0ZW1lbnQiOlt7IlJlc291cmNlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9pci5laWEuZ292L3NlY3VyZS9uZ3MvKiIsIkNvbmRpdGlvbiI6eyJEYXRlTGVzc1RoYW4iOnsiQVdTOkVwb2NoVGltZSI6MTc5ODc3OTU0MH0sIkRhdGVHcmVhdGVyVGhhbiI6eyJBV1M6RXBvY2hUaW1lIjoxNzc1NzQ1MDAwfX19XX0&Signature=nxKvoS-GXG4gtuqS-lidbEotwUWK4zbvm6OuKBhLRlLO1koUyoNkuoFrqM9mEOEusbOLAN2HJJpFEK0j-gFyVYt49JZgxvTpyUGgLY3OjEhiq9UCvAOBVDTCrO5uTgqfMwkx7mjdCkIldN1FeZvuAqQ2JJBbM5mcTRs3C7h4J7ys5KzbvJp1KUgMByH1O8DOfJMekar1eEmSj3ADzERaLUstmAMNJNraAIAHDdXIH5qFWTt1D0xosRqT3UyQ9oA~6gQar-F3G~RKr5m2VK3qZ256yLg~Kjah46iuOaRlsM5cx1xWIW8n8W87T5G2m4~t4c25z40wlfPtuQUni1mjrA&Key-Pair-Id=K23MRH48KS2CD4

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending April 3, 2026   |  Released: April 9, 2026 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: April 16, 2026 

Summary

Working gas in storage was 1,911 Bcf as of Friday, April 3, 2026, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 50 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 89 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 87 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,824 Bcf. At 1,911 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2021 through 2025. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

The price dropping this far is a bit of a surprise to me. NG is clearly NOT following the liquid energies.

I feel that we are seeing a downside washout/exhaustion, putting in major lows that almost always happen at the end of Winter to early Spring. 

In this case, the low is coming in a bit late, possibly from the very warm end to the heating season which started the injection season early and with some robust injections.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

1. 1 month: Powerful downtrend that is actually accelerating a bit.

2. 1 year: Downside break out. 2 massive upside spikes higher this past Winter. 

3. 10 years Downside break out.

+++++++++++++++++++

It would be extremely rare for us to continue spiking down like this much longer considering the powerful positive seasonal between now and the start of June.

https://charts.equityclock.com/natural-gas-futures-ng-seasonal-chart

  MetMike

  From a cycle point of view, this week will mark the 26th week from last weekly low, thus totally within weekly cycle time frame.  Moreover, the daily cycle should also bottom within this week, as it is 42 days into its daily cycle, thus "ripe" for a low.

  Look to buy tu-wed!!  (Fireworks Monday to cycle low??)

  Buying a call at cycle low timeframe "could" prove beneficial---just saying!

Thanks, tjc!

Your guess is as good as mine! 

The seasonal low is extraordinarily reliable but each year is different. In 2020 for instance it was messed up from COVID which massively cut demand and the low didn't happen until the end of May/start of June.

I don't remember another year like that but could be missing 1. Most of the others featured a distinctive, well defined, spike low/selling exhaustion type pattern, similar to this which marked a significant low that lasted, at least until later in the year. 

What can go wrong?

If the war slows down the economy, it can cut industrial demand. Sometimes the NG will trade in sympathy with the liquid energies, as it did briefly after the war broke out from the psychology and speculation that it could stimulate the natural gas exports.

However, a recession is usually very bearish NG prices, with COVID-2020 being the quintessential example. 

I don't know this for sure, but these unexpectedly weak ng prices, besides being caused by the robust, early injections from warm weather could be from expectations of a WAE caused recession.

So natural is not reacting directly, like the crude but potentially indirectly.

Warm temperatures coming up are still likely to keep injections high for April.

We opened modestly higher on Sunday Evening, probably in sympathy with the gap higher in crude but have been unable to stay above the open.

We've also been unable to go lower too…..at least not make new lows.  I feel that this market is near its low UNLESS the crude supply crisis continues in the Strait of Hormuz.

Instead of trading in sync with crude oil(higher) I feel that a continuation of elevated energy prices WILL cause a US AND global recession that will cause a major drop in industrial demand (2020 was an extreme example of that from COVID).

That gives rise to a more bearish potential, even though I'm leaning in the opposite direction because of the extremely powerful and reliable positive seasonal that is kicking in right now and lasts thru the month of May. 

Each year is different. It's not like the suns increasing angle in the sky every Spring, ensuring us that Summer WILL arrive, along with the heat from that more powerful sun. 

9am: I forgot to post the graph and will do an updated graph when back in my office later today.

2:30pm: The top line is the modestly higher open on Sunday Night. We tested that and found plenty of traders that still think NG is going lower. We barely held support but closed right on it(bad sign to close near the lows).  In the absence of a Donald Trump inflicted recession(chances continue to increase), I feel that we are very close to major lows here.

Looking for a reversal up from new lows this week, possibly today.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

Huge contrast from north to south!

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending April 10, 2026   |  Released: April 16, 2026 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: April 23, 2026 

Summary

Working gas in storage was 1,970 Bcf as of Friday, April 10, 2026, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 59 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 126 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 108 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,862 Bcf. At 1,970 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2021 through 2025. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

Earlier expectations for a MAJOR, seasonal low this week seem to be verifying. However, this could just be a bear flag. 

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

Heating degree days are on the left. Note the rapidly dropping seasonal in dashed green as cold weather quickly disappears. The purple line was the last 0z European model. The other line was the previous 12z run.  Note a very brief spike higher over the weekend, then back below average for over half of next week, followed by even less impressive cold in week 2. 

On the right is the CDD graph. The green line is climbing but won't become significant for another month. 

The units on the Y axis of these 2 graphs are more than double for the HDDs/left than CDDs/right, even though they appear to be closer when comparing. 

The CDDs will pass up the HDDs seasonally, I think in around 3 weeks. 

Last 12z European model in purple,  not as chilly in week 2 as the previous run but HDDs don't matter much, if at all this late in the year.

This was the last 46 day European Ensemble model temperature anomaly forecast from today, 4-18-26. This takes us into the start of June.

CDDs will matter the most in the 2nd half of this period, so this is BEARISH with a lower than average demand for air conditioning using electricity generated by burning natural gas!

The predicted, MAJOR seasonal low scenario last week continues to play out.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

Near record warmth in April = big injections since this is still the (end) of the heating season.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

++++++++++++++

Holy cow! I posted that temperature graph above before looking at the actual injection. +103 Bcf!!

Note the current year in blue on the graph below breaking bearishly upwards a few weeks earlier than usual(from warmth at the end of the cooling season) and separating from the 5 year average in gray.

We're now +137 Bcf compared to the 5 year average and +142 Bcf compared to last year. 

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending April 17, 2026   |  Released: April 23, 2026 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: April 30, 2026 

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,063 Bcf as of Friday, April 17, 2026, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 103 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 142 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 137 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,926 Bcf. At 2,063 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2021 through 2025. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

+++++++++++

This massive build hit the bulls hard although the large funds, came in at 7am selling hard ahead of the report and ng was already sharply lower before the release but plunged even more after it.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

The seasonal low formation from last week is being tested with this giant spike downward.

Decisive new lows on a closing basis would turn this into more of a big, fat bear flag on the charts or a failed bottoming configuration. 

The market has spoken. The formation is now just a large bear flag, which is a continuation pattern. Smashing thru previous lows and delaying the time frame of the seasonal low.

The latest for this  seasonal low occurred in 2020 p, at the start of June because of the economy shutting down that cut back on industrial demand.

There is the chance that a contracting economy right now is having a negative impact to NG prices.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

1. 1 month: Downside break out yesterday after the extremely bearish EIA storage report.  Previous downtrend was interrupted by a bear flag type formation that got some momentum as it looked like a seasonal bottom initially.

2. 1 year; Huge spikes up from extreme cold waves this past Winter. Recent downtrend is now renewed. Lowest price in 19 months, since Oct. 2024 BEFORE the 1 year chart.

3. 10 years: Early 2022 MAJOR highs. 2024/25/early 2026 uptrend has been violated.

+6 HDDs from this last 12z European Ensemble model in purple/left. Too late in the heating season to matter. Regardless, the  big bump higher in HDDs is a result of a very chilly pattern mid/late next week. 

Seasonally averaged(climatology) CDDs on the right will pass up HDDs on the left(dashed green lines) around May 10th. 

Front month, May 2026 expires on Tuesday. NG is known for spikes up and down ahead of expiration. This would be a good spot for a spike, seasonal low. Coming a bit late from the injection season starting several weeks early and last week's shockingly HUGE injection. 

Another big injection is expected this Thursday at 9:30am. Not likely as huge as last week. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

Potentially bottoming formation or short covering ahead of Tuesday's expiration of May NG?

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

1.  1 week: Big bounce up today

2. 1 month: Downtrend, false bottom that turned into a bear flag, ending with the spike lower on Thursday after the mega bearish, huge EIA injection to storage.

3. 1 year: 2 huge spikes up from extreme cold this past Winter. Extremely steep downtrend after the 2nd high from milder weather.  Bear flag, then less steep downtrend with the injection season starting 3 weeks early from mild weather reducing the need for residential heating.

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending April 24, 2026   |  Released: April 30, 2026 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: May 7, 2026 

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,142 Bcf as of Friday, April 24, 2026, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 79 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 116 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 153 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,989 Bcf. At 2,142 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2021 through 2025. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

+++++++++++++

We're seeing a reversal up from life of contract lows in the new front month, JUNE natural gas here. 

One of the flaws in the graphing source that we use here is that it only graphs the FRONT MONTH. 

Towards the end of every month, when the front month ROLLS OVER to the next month in NG, if there's a big price differential between the expiring month and the new front month, it can completely mess up the price formations on our price charts. Specific comments below on this chart for 1 week.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

1. 1 week: I put in red lines below to show the already obvious spike up with the rollover from May to June this week. 

We basically added +$2,000/contract to the price immediately.

If you take out that +$2,000/contract or if you were just graphing June Natural gas below that $2.6 was a LIFE OF CONTRACT LOW for June natural gas and we are now trading higher! That's an upside reversal from a record low price at a time of year that almost always features a seasonal low.

Regardless, the $2.5 May contract basis looks like a solid low.

2. 1 month: Inverted Head and Shoulders bottom formation with us breaking out above the neckline right now. However, this is only with the help of the +$2,000 rollover.  $2.5 looks like a solid low!

3. 1 year: Note the 2 HUGE spike highs this past Winter from extreme cold waves. Then steep downtrends from the very mild weather after the spikes up from cold. There was a 3rd, much weaker one late in the heating season 

4. 10 years: Major low in 2020 from COVID cutting demand. Major high in AUGUST 2022 from storage getting low. Record injections in the Fall of 2022=price collapse.

Rapidly rising CDDs on the right, seasonally pass up rapidly falling HDDS on the left on May 9th, noted by the dashed green lines.  So heat is becoming bullish and cool temps bearish until early October.  

The scales on these graphs is messed up.

The vertical/Y axis on the left is almost 3 times the vertical/Y axis on the right even though the lines on the right are a bit higher, they represent 77 CDDs compared to 82 HDDs on the left.  

More uncertainty than usual here because of the war but it sure looks like the seasonal lows are in!

CDDs pass up HDDs in 6 days(green line) and those are what matter more, starting RIGHT NOW.

Some modest heat in the south coming in week 2 on the right. Nothing extreme or anomalous but enough to be a modest bullish factor, especially with longer term forecasts adding some heat and the STRONG May up seasonal.