I want to spend a great deal of time discussing this because, despite us having 1+ trillion times more information at our fingertips (compared to 100 years ago) that should be making ALL of us much, MUCH smarter and well over half of us doing that, a very significant portion of the information its actually making people dumber, especially in political realms.
Let’s start by stating that I’m an independent, objective scientist that does not belong to either party. My reason to be here is to educate/enlighten readers in realms that I can share my knowledge in, as well as learning as much as I can, including from others here and from other sources. Comments from all are welcome, especially those that disagree with me……who are encouraged to post their respected/respectful thoughts that disagree with mine.
How do we know what is true and not true?
A fact or an opinion?
1. It’s almost impossible to know, if the person telling you something knows much more than you.
2. So it’s important to be objectively informed.
3. Here is the mistake that most people make about being informed. If you are 60 years old, for instance you’ve been around long enough to already have strong opinions on most things. Those opinions and preconceived notions/cognitive bias will usually determine how you interpret the world and its information. That being the case, people will almost always limit their sources to those that line up with THEIR truths. There are an unlimited number of those sources in politics available, describing to us the complete opposite realities for the Ds compared to the Rs for instance.
Sometimes they are both partially right and wrong. Sometimes 1 side is exactly right and the other 1 is completely wrong.
If we affiliate strongly with 1 side OUR truth is different than another persons truth from the other party and human nature compels us to get ALL of our information at sites that we’ve decided tell us what OUR truth is.
We store that as knowledge in our brains to bolster our confidence in what we already believe (Our truths) and reject all the stuff that contradicts it.
When there are diametrically opposed, polar opposite opinions and the information available to support both sides BUT only 1 side is using authentic facts based on empirical data and evidence and the other side is using convincing sounding, manufactured realities or twisted interpretations, what happens?
1 side that goes to their sources becomes more and more informed and gets smarter. The other side goes to their sources, that line up with what THEY WANT TO BELIEVE and gets dumber and more convinced with time that they are right, to the point that they can no longer even recognize the truth anymore when it’s laid out on a silver platter to them.
Both sides do it to some extent but I’ll show some explicit examples of it happening today from 1 side.
There actually is a simple and effective way to prevent us from succumbing to this cognitive bias principle of human nature. It’s not easy.
Instead of only fact checking or rejecting all the stuff that your cognitive bias, from decades of forming tells you is false, FACT CHECK ALL THE THINGS THAT YOU THINK ARE TRUE AND THAT YOU WANT TO BELIEVE IN!
Its actually what using the scientific method is all about.
Its very tough to do and for the vast majority of people…..impossible.
Fortunately, I know how to do it and try my best to sincerely practice it but still cant help searching for answers using biased questions or favoring those that line up with my personal, impossible to shake bias.
We all have TREMENDOUS bias. Recognizing that is the first and most important step in overcoming most of it. Never all of it because we grew up with decades of experiences that created it. We can never wipe that slate clean and start over.
The objective should be to sincerely try to understand why other people we disagree with feel the way they do.
when practicing the scientific method, you actually make an assumption that they are right and YOU are wrong AND THEN look again at things using authentic facts with THEIR mindset.
If the authentic facts take you to the same place, ONLY THEN can you have confidence in being right.
Many times, this fact checking of your own beliefs causes you to learn new things. Nobody is right all the time about everything, especially in politics.
This means that EVERYBODY can learn new things by consistently fact checking their sources and their political belief system.
Sadly, that is getting harder and harder to do because more and more sites exist with fake news, lies, propaganda and disinformation. But especially because it’s extremely unpleasant psychologically and no fun.
We like to go to sites that reinforce our belief systems. It’s reassuring that we belong to the right party/tribe. Living our lives using principles that define what’s most important in the world.
The thing that most often causes people to reject authentic facts, empirical data and evidence is their inability to tell the difference between those facts and their WRONG opinions because of blinding cognitive bias.
What often happens is that THEIR belief system completely blinds them from recognizing authentic facts. When they are wrong about something based on the authentic facts, what often happens is that they refer to/think of the authentic facts that disagree with them, as only being OPINIONS so that they can justify THEIR (WRONG) OPINIONS getting the same weighting based on what THEY want to believe.
Let's provide a ton of examples to demonstrate the difference.
1. A weather forecast for 5 days from now is an opinion. At 4 days from now, it's still an opinion.
3-2-1 day from now, still an opinion even though it becomes a higher confidence opinion. 1 day AFTER that day, the weather becomes a rock solid authentic fact that stays in the record books forever. There may be differences in how individuals perceive hot vs cold or stormy but a high of 72 degrees with .5" of rain are indisputable metrics of empirical data that measure authentic facts. Anybody that disagrees with those authentic facts has a right to their wrong opinions but they are still WRONG.
2. A forecast for the price of November soybeans this Summer is an opinion in the month of March. The price for this coming Monday is an opinion. The closing price on Friday, March 13, 2026 is an authentic fact using a well accepted metric. Anybody that disagrees with that authentic fact has a right to their WRONG opinion but they are still WRONG!
3. The prediction of the winner/score of the Ohio State vs Michigan football game this November 2026 is an opinion, even at half time of the game its still an opinion. The day after the game and for the rest of history, the winner and score is an authentic fact that goes in the history books. Anybody that has an opinion that disagrees with the score or who won because their team lost has a right to have their wrong opinion but THEY ARE WRONG!
4. The predictions for this Novembers elections and polls are all opinions. The day after the elections, the results are authentic facts. Even in disputed elections with recounts, the winners quickly become authentic facts in the real world for every reasonable person. If somebody is still insisting they won the 2020 election, in march 2026, that isn't an opinion. It's a lie. If people believe the lie instead of the authentic data and empirical evidence they have a right to their wrong opinion but are flat out wrong. They have the right to believe in wrong things and call it an opinion because they don't want to believe THE TRUTH but that still means they're wrong. Believing the opposite of things that have already been indisputably proven with empirical data/evidence and authentic facts doesn't make them viable opinions. They are wrong as having the opinion that the earth is flat or that that Neil Armstrong walking on the moon in July 1969 was faked.
5. When the missiles struck the girls school 2 weeks ago, there were different opinions about where the missiles came from. After satellite and other pictures(as well as recovering huge pieces of the missiles at the site) showed they were Tomahawk missiles and only the United States was using them that day, it became the defining authentic fact that the United States was responsible. If Donald Trump wants to say that the missiles came from Iran, that's a blatant like, not an opinion. He has more indisputable proof than all of us. If people who believe everything that Donald Trump says, use his lie to form their opinion that Iran bombed the girls school..........they have a proven wrong opinion. They are WRONG!
6. When the Wall Street Journal published a story about the birthday card that Donald Trump authored and gave to Jeffrey Epstein and Donald Trump insisted there was no such card, there were VALID OPINIONS from people on both side about whether to believe Donald Trump or to believe the conservative, Wall Street Journal with the same owner as Fox News.
It was no longer an opinion and became an authentic fact when the Epstein estate released all the birthday wishes/cards/letters that had been locked up in the estate for 2 decades. The card from Donald Trump was there, exactly as the Wall Street Journal described it, along with his signature that exactly matched his signatures in signing other documents. It was the quintessential empirical evidence or authentic fact to prove indisputably that the card was authored by Donald Trump. Donald Trump lying and insisting that it wasn't from him is NOT an opinion. It's still a blatant lie no matter how many times that lie is repeated. People believing Donald Trump's lie is a choice to ignore all the authentic facts and believe only the lie because they want the lie to be true. That doesn't make it a credible opinion. Believing in a lie can be an opinion. Believing in the person lying can be an opinion but it's an opinion that gets 0% weighting when the authentic facts and empirical evidence already indisputably proved the truth.
The only way that the card did not come from Donald Trump is if somebody had a time machine and went back 20 years to plant a card with the rest of the sealed Epstein estate and used a perfectly forged signature as well as using verbiage that Donald Trump has used in the past. Since that is impossible, people believing that are wrong. They choose to believe a lie because they don't want the authentic evidence to be true.
There is no other "alternative reality" Repeating the lie, even 1 billion times still makes it a lie. And Donald Trump filing a lawsuit for 5 billion dollars against the Wall Street Journal or even 5 quadrillion dollars doesn't make it anything other than a lie. It's makes Donald Trump a liar that thinks he can bully the Wall Street Journal which is extremely delusional. People that believe what Donald Trump is claiming have a right to their indisputably proven wrong opinions but it will always be wrong based on the basic standards of empirical evidence and authentic facts.
7. Believing that Donald Trump was exonerated by the Epstein files is an opinion to believe a lie and ignore the authentic evidence. As there are an incredible number of times that Donald Trump is mentioned in the Epstein Files and the DOJ refuses to release almost half of the files (the ones with investigations into the pedophiles, including Donald Trump) and there is tons of evidence to prove he was Jeffrey Epstein's best friend and they shared an interest in women/girls. THAT is the authentic evidence and facts. An opinion to NOT believe that doesn't validate that opinion. Believing in invisible Martians under your bed is also not a valid opinion. Since they are invisible, you can always claim that it's still possible but when all the evidence, empirical data and authentic facts point in the opposite direction, that opinion is WRONG!
Donald Trump's exoneration page:
At the thread below, there are numerous posts/quote that exemplify(stated with different verbiage) these principles:
Quote of the day Nov 2021/February 2024
130 responses |
Started by metmike - Nov. 2, 2021, 10:52 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/77011/