This will be an extremely rapidly developing system/threat.
Going from almost NO risk anywhere on Saturday to a LARGE area of at least level 3(enhanced) out 5 risk on Sunday. Probably getting elevated to a level 4(moderate) this weekend.
Stay tuned. There are some unusual dynamics with this one. We have risks similar to this several times/year but this one has some VERY unusual dynamics that have introduced more uncertainty than usual and will probably cause surprises and updates.
This is for Sunday and Sunday Night below which is day 3 right now. Enhanced in the center is level 3 out of 5. Tomorrow, the day 2 outlook could feature MODERATE level 4 of 5.
The 2nd map is the actual probability which is 45%+ for severe weather. Within 25 miles of any point. The type of thunderstorms that we could have are capable of 75+ mph winds vs the usual 58+ mph winds.
There could be some strong tornadoes, EF2+ with winds of 150+ mph.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html
https://www.weather.gov/media/ewx/iwt/SPC_WPC_Differences.pdf
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The type of tornado possible in the moderate risk zone is an EF3+. This means 165 mph+.
Enhanced Fuita scale
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_Fujita_scale
| EFU | Unknown | No surveyable damage |
|---|---|---|
| EF0 | 65–85 mph | Light damage |
| EF1 | 86–110 mph | Moderate damage |
| EF2 | 111–135 mph | Considerable damage |
| EF3 | 136–165 mph | Severe damage |
| EF4 | 166–200 mph | Devastating damage |
| EF5 | >200 mph | Incredible damage |
Here's the deal on wind and damage.
As wind increases the damage massively increases on an exponential scale. This applies to ALL wind.
Severe storms, hurricanes and especially tornadoes that have the strongest winds of all, which means the tornadoes with winds over 150 mph have incredible damage.
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A 150 mph wind does 256X more damage than a 75 mph wind. Let's repeat that. A 150 mph wind does 256x more damage than a 75 mph wind!
Hurricane Damage Potential
https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/tc-potential
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Less than 1% of tornadoes are F4 or F5 but they kill 67% of the people!
Note that the majority of tornadoes, F0 and F1= 74%(on the old scale) only killed 4% of people and they were probably outside or in a mobile home.
The F4 and F5's were just 1% but caused 67% of deaths.
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https://www.weather.gov/ama/supercell
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Excellent presentation at this link below that describes the different types of tornadoes and the damage they cause. Keep in mind that the EF4 and EF5 tornadoes are extremely rare. Less than 1% of tornadoes are this strong.
The EF4 and EF5 tornadoes will usually have the HIGH, level 5 risk earlier that day.
Mike Simon Tornado Damage Intensity; Enhanced Fujita Scale
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-653tSCB68
The upper level jet stream (above 30,000 feet) will be pretty strong with close to a150 mph jet streak in our area. It's been stronger before for our most violent tornado outbreaks but this is decent.
Of major note is the NEGATIVE TILT to this anomalous trough. Negatively tilted,upper level troughs cause unique dynamics, explained below that enhance severe weather risks.
https://aerocrewnews.com/2019/03/01/why-is-your-trough-negatively-tilted/
The most incredible thing related to this system is the temperature contrast on either side. On the warm side Sunday, temperatures in Evansville, IN will top 70 degrees with southerly winds gusting above 40 mph.
On Monday, the temperature will be 40 degrees colder and the northwest winds gusting to 30 mph will make it feel 60 degrees colder!!!
However, there will be times this Spring when we DO have much higher threats that justify being especially vigilant because those times will include the threat of strong/violent tornadoes that are rare but kill the most people. That's when being in a safe place saves lives.
When will those highest risk times be? We will know and identify them WELL BEFORE it happens.
1. When the Storm Prediction Center has at least a moderate, level 4 out of 5 risk. When they have a 5 out of 5 high risk, it's imperative to stay tuned during that type of severe weather outbreak and be ready to act, while still keeping in mind that even during the worst tornado outbreaks, what we are doing is REDUCING the risk of being killed by a tornado from a very small number to a MUCH SMALLER number by taking actions.
2. The Storm Prediction Center will use this verbiage: "This is a particularly dangerous situation".
We know what conditions cause those type of tornadoes with high confidence days in advance but will NEVER be able to predict them with pinpoint accuracy until the storms causing them are in progress,
All tornadoes are absolutely NOT CREATED EQUAL!!!
The total lives lost from 1,000 EF0 tornadoes might not add up to the lives lost from just 1 really bad EF5 tornado!
A 150 mph EF3 wind has 256 times more damaging power than a 75 mph EFO wind!
A 225 mph EF5 wind has 256 X 256 times more damaging power than a 75 mph EFO wind!!!!
65,000 times more damaging power in a strong EF5 tornado compared to an EF0 tornado!!!. That's not a mistake or typo in the math.
That's based on physical laws and tens of thousands of surveys of tornado damage which were used to contruct the Enhanced Fujita tornado scale.
Mike Simon Tornado Damage Intensity; Enhanced Fujita Scale
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-653tSCB68
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Understanding this in 2026 and having the technology to warn people long before the life threatening weather makes it a much, MUCH safer world compared to 100 years ago. People in that age found out about the strong tornadoes or other extreme weather events...............when they were actually getting clobbered by them!
Despite this, there are still limitations based on the worst EF5 tornadoes like the one that struck Joplin, MO in May 2011!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joplin_tornado
We should note that the scale below is LOGARITHMIC in order to keep the data manageable because of the tremendous drop in values.
The highest numbers on the left top/left that are approaching 10 deaths/million are actually 100+ times greater than the lowest numbers on the right that are LESS THAN .1 deaths/million!
The Joplin tornado in May 2011 caused the huge spike higher and 1 outlying year since the 1970's.
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Climate change has been helping too by warming the highest latitudes the most and weakening cold fronts and jet streams! This has reduced the number of the strongest tornadoes by around 50%!
This thread is about TORNADOES not about other impacts from climate change.
May 29th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
Weather becomes LESS extreme in several realms when you reduce the planets temperature contrast with latitude!
