Previous thread:
Frigid Blast
Started by metmike - Jan. 17, 2026, 10:44 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/117282/
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Get all the comprehensive weather here:
This is the total snow forecast the next 12 days from the most snow bullish model, the 12Z GEFS(American ensemble):
The system that just popped up in the last 24 hours is the southern system, with the heaviest amounts just south of the Ohio River. This will hit next weekend probably early. Extreme range in model forecasts, timing, locations and amounts. This COULD turn into a MAJOR heavy snow event in the Ohio River Valley or end up being a nothing burger and areas farther south getting dumped on. Just over 5 days to go before the potential impacts start.
This was the same forecast just 2 days ago to demonstrate how this NEW farther south system just popped up. The forecast will continue to evolve!
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Some of the individual operation models have hugely different solutions:
1. 12z European model Operational model 10 days
2. 12z GFS Operational model 10 days
3. 12z Canadian Operational model 10 days
Let's focus in on just the MAIN event, especially since it's going to hit areas far south of typical of major snow events.
This was from the last 12z GEFS for the next 144 hours. These solutions from this particular source, the American model are available to the public for free, run every 6 hours. I also have a couple of other sources, especially awesome WeatherBell that requires a monthly fee(which WxFollower tipped me off about a couple of years ago).
For this particular map above, the GFS ENSEMBLE(average of dozens of solutions/variations of the parent GFS model) you can go straight to #3 but I show how to get there from the main page.
1. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ go to MODEL GUIDANCE
2. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php go to GEFS-MEAN-SPRD
3. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GEFS-MEAN-SPRD&area=NAMER&ps=area go to NAMER
Make this choice:
| | snodpth_chng_mean |
Go to whatever time frame that you are interested in.
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If you want to see the OPERATIONAL parent model take these steps after #1 above.
1. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ go to MODEL GUIDANCE
2. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php go to
Make this choice:
| | snodpth_chng |
This is the map you get for 144 hours
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Now that you've been trained to forecast the weather by an atmospheric scientist, you don't need to come here anymore
Seriously, I hope that provides some useful links for our weather lovers.
Winter Weather Forecasts
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Day 4-7 Outlook
Current issuance cycle: 12Z (updated 0636Z, January 19, 2026)
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This is what the artificial intelligence thinks for Evansville IN: Just under an inch of snow:
Current Hazards at the link below.
For your NWS and county, go to the link below.
Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county.
Temperatures when this extremely dry, fluffy snow falls along the Ohio River will be in the low teens.
Typically, snows here have a 10 to 1 water equivalent when the temperature is near 32 deg. F. With this snow it will be a whopping 30 to 1 ratio!!! If it's not too heavy, that's the type of snow that you can sweep instead of shovel. No snowmen for us this time around with extremely poor packing.
Here's a really nice bar graph that gives a better image of this concept with 1 picture.
Last 18z GEFS run:
Mostly south of Indiana. That's some unusually deep snow for the deep south!!!!
How about this for this last 0z GFS operational model. The yellow is 12"+. Inside of that is and area of 18"+ and even a couple of specs of 21+".
