NG 1/1/26+
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Started by WxFollower - Jan. 1, 2026, 1:33 a.m.

 For the new year, we all get for ourselves a present, a new NG thread to give our finger(s) a break. :) Yay!

 The 0Z models look mild so far. This isn’t what I want to see as I always prefer the SE brand of refreshing, clean, crisp cold with low dewpoints. It’s my favorite walking wx! In the meantime we’ve had a refreshing cool to cold 12/29-31 and tomorrow should also be pleasantly Canadian though with the inevitable warming trend.

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Re: NG 1/1/26+
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By metmike - Jan. 1, 2026, 1:44 a.m.
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Thanks very much, Larry and Happy New Year again up here on the trading forum!

You‘re right about the new GEFS, yet another -8 HDDs warmer than the last much warmer 18z run.s

Re: NG 1/1/26+
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By WxFollower - Jan. 1, 2026, 4:19 p.m.
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Hey Mike, the warm changes on the Euro weeklies (based on extension of 0Z EE) for Jan 5-18 vs how they looked early in the week are large.


By metmike - Jan. 1, 2026, 5:13 p.m.
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Thanks much, Larry!

Ill take a look at those on my IPad while watching the Rose Bowl.

The Canadian model continues to be MUCH colder than the other ones.

The last 12z GEFS was another -3HDDS. The EE was +3 HDDS.

5pm: I see exactly what you pointed out. Thanks!
Indiana up 17-0 at halftime!

Re: NG 1/1/26+
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By WxFollower - Jan. 1, 2026, 7:01 p.m.
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Mike,

 Congrats on the Hoosiers obliterating Bama! Otherwise, the Rose Bowl has been boring/zzz.

  Are you surprised that NG opened down only 1.5%? Why wouldn’t it have opened further down? Is it a low volume session? Is it oversold?

By metmike - Jan. 2, 2026, 2:07 a.m.
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Thanks, Larry,

That was a wonderful win for the team that leaped to greatness from nobodys faster than any college football team in history.

Within seconds after natural gas opened, it dropped $400 so maybe the usual traders on the open, waited a few seconds before selling.

The last 0z GEFS that just came out, took away 4 more HDDs and is looking less cold in week 2.   The models have continued to get less cold all week. 

And the upward trajectory in week 2, which was the only bullish part of the forecast is backing down again at the very end of the period.