New thread time!
Thanks again, Larry!
You're the man when it comes to knowing when scrolling down half way to China on a natural gas thread means it's time to start the next one. 66 posts below........that was my football number in high school!
Previous thread:
NG 11/10/25-12/1/25
66 responses |
Started by WxFollower - Nov. 10, 2025, 10:14 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/115827/
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Much more to come but I'm focused a bit on this next weather system too:
Snow event (light) December 1 & 2, 2025
Started by metmike - Nov. 29, 2025, 11:27 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/116271/
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And heating oil, that's often not the greatest weather market, has come alive!
Heating oil is the upside leader to start the week
Started by metmike - Dec. 1, 2025, 1:24 a.m.
Thanks, Mike!
NG rose a sharp 3% in just 40 minutes (11:55AM-12:35PM CST) bringing it to its highest since way back in Nov. of 2022! Interestingly, it appears to my eyeballs that the # of HDD of the 12Z EE didn’t go up much, if any, and could have even dropped a little.
However, the late 12Z EE maps suggest a new supply of very cold air will develop in W Canada, which is in a position to plunge down into the C US soon after. This wasn’t on the prior runs for the comparable period. I suspect that that was a big contributor to the 3% rise.
Larry,
I think you really nailed what seemed like a very confusing reaction by the natural gas market(spike up $1,500 to new highs suddenly) to what was a release of BEARISH HDD data.
Let's start with the almighty European Ensemble model(that averages 50 different members to give us a superior, more consistent product-which takes out all the extreme outliers) that the market worships........because it really does have the best forecasting skill of them all.
1. EE HDD's in purple were LOWER, -4.5 compared to the previous one. And the trajectory is DOWN!. If I knew ONLY this an hour earlier, I would have been tempted to be short Luckily that was not the case!
2. The GEFS(American model that has similar individual ensemble members averaged to 1 product) below it shows the same thing. -5 HDDs.
3. Look what NG did when that data came out!!! After an initial, small dip, it took off like a rocket to new highs. New highs for the day and move!!!!
Here was the last map from the EE model that you referred to of the upper level heights with colorized changes from the previous run.
The foundation of this cold pattern has been the upper level high around Alaska and upper level low downstream in Central Canada with a trough dipping into the US. This couplet is ideal for transporting cold air from high latitudes to the mid latitudes.
Even though this is 2 weeks out, and the most likely to change its also our biggest clue about..........WHAT's COMING NEXT, which is week 3 weather.
Here's the latest prices charts:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
1. 1 day: Red lines are significant times . a)Last nights open. b)midnight c)8am d)Noon. Note the big spike up at Noon, despite the bearish HDDs......explanation above.
2. 1 month: Upside breakout!
3. 1 year: Upside break out! Well above the March 2025 highs caused by last Winters cold pattern that caused numerous large weekly drawdowns to storage.
4. 10 years: Upside break out above long term resistance. Earlier upside break out from a symmetrical wedge(higher lows and lower highs).
The next EIA natural gas weekly storage report should be BEARISH compared to the seasonal average because of the widespread mild weather across the country. This reduced the residential heating demand. Natural gas is used for much of this and natural gas is also burned to generate electricity(for Summer AC cooling too).
This report comes out at 9:30am on Thursday.
Larry,
Do you know what early estimates are?
We might have an unusual, very small injection instead of a typical withdrawal??
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php
Mike,
NGI indicator is -18. Don’t forget that this is for the EIA week including Thanksgiving as well as the Mon-Wed prior, when many are off work. Thus, similarly to other major holiday weeks. the EIA typically ends up 20++ more bearish than that which would be indicated for non-holiday weeks. So, despite the -18 NGI indicator, a small injection wouldn’t be a shock.
Yes, excellent point, Larry.
This is also why I'm thinking its possible for a tiny injection. If it does end up a drawdown, it will be unseasonably small.
just a question
Wouldn't the same Thanksgiving slowdown from less work-related use have happened the previous years, making that a non-factor?
cutworm,
I think that Larry was comparing it to NON holiday weeks not previous Thanksgivings.