Heating oil is especially used in the Northeast part of the country for residential heating. The place in the country with some of the coldest weather the next 2 weeks is the Northeast.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852
These are the HDDs for just the East.
The last 0z GEFS in purple, on the left is up a whopping +14 HDDs compared to the previous 18z run from 6 hours earlier. That purple line rises back above the green average HDD line!
The HDDS for the entire country below were just +4 HDDS compared to the previous run. We can see that the purple line below stays BELOW the green average HDD line in week 2 because of the milder temperatures coming into the West and spreading into the Midwest, as cold deepens in the East.
After the 0z GEFS above came out, the European Ensemble model came out MILDER. This caused NG to plunge and the HO to give up around 1c of the evening 5c+ spike higher than Friday's close.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/heating-oil
1. 1 day: The bottom horizontal line was the close on Friday. The horizontal line above it was the higher open this evening. We were having a steady move up for several hours, then the European Ensemble model came out milder and we've spiked down over 1c after testing resistance(top horizontal line).
2. 1 week: Rounding bottom? from the colder weather pattern? Or is this a bear flag/pause in the downtrend?
3. 1 month: Major top on November 19, then a drop plunge of 40c! This could be a bear flag or it could be a bottom.
4. 1 year: Ascending triangle/wedge
5. 10 years: A long term symmetrical wedge/triangle (higher lows and lower highs) and a shorter term one too!
