New thread time. NG plunged 4.7% as of 5:40-9AM CDT! Why so much? Granted the 6Z GEFS had 15 fewer HDD than the 0Z. But still, why that big of a plunge?
Thanks for starting the new thread, Larry.
I gave the explanation here:
By metmike - Nov. 10, 2025, 10:15 a.m.
Not normally that much, Larry.
However, the 0z went from +15 HDDs to the 6z run of -15 HDDs vs the previous run.
That rarely happens and it did so at the very end of the markets huge move up on cold that had already been traded for weeks.
This was the classical/textbook ideal weather traders top picking set up, which I've been posting vehemently about since late last week.
I shorted a couple of times a bit early but WAS SLEEPING when THE OPTIMAL shorting signal/warmer weather signal hit. If not for being up well past 2am, I might have considered setting the alarm for the 6z GEFS and cashed in but its almost impossible to be up for every model run to not miss THE ONE that breaks the bulls backs!
The scenario leading up to this was well documented in these posts above BEFORE it happened.
The weather can turn sharply colder again, of course. However dropping $2,500/contract for the highs and filling the opening exhaustion gap has done massive technical damage to the charts with sell/top signals flashing on ng traders computers.
See the entire thread here:
NG 10/9/25-11/10/25
56 responses |
Started by WxFollower - Oct. 9, 2025, 6:36 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/115165/
+++++++++++++++
This post, a few hours ago, actually makes what happened crystal clear
By metmike - Nov. 10, 2025, 8:17 a.m.
7:10am
This last 6z GEFS gave all that cold back and was -15 HDDs and we sold off to new lows. The previous solution was an outlier?
I missed the short because I can't stay up 24 hours(was up until 2am) and have to sleep some time although 20 years ago when I traded for a living, I would set my alarm clock all night for when new models were coming out.
We just filled last nights gap, so its POTENTIALLY a gap and crap, buying exhaustion gap! Colder maps later today will negative that, just like this last models warmth, negatived the upside break away gap signature.
I will guess that the short term top is in........unless the next models runs are much colder. Sometimes markets will fill a gap than go back in the direction they gapped in.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
++++++++++++++
7:40 am
Follow thru makes the earlier call of a top one with more confidence: I missed the optimal selling time, around 5:30 am, when the much warmer 6 GEFS was just coming out because I was sleeping
I got lucky selling the Sunday Night open but missed the HUGE, selling opportunity from the exact set up I had identified, , shorting after 5am(from the warmer 6z GEFS) . Oh well, there will be hundreds of other opportunities. And weather trading for natural gas is still very early in the new cold weather season, right Larry?
++++++++++++++
8:40 am: Pretty safe to say now, just a couple hours later, that this was the short term top, if not THE TOP for this move and the year unless we get hit with much colder forecasts.
I found it interesting that last nights 0z GEFS with +15 HDDs could barely make new highs.
A market that can’t react much more to fresh bullish news after a,long move up has exhausted the buying!
MM, please let us know what NGI says today about the big rise at yesterday evening’s open as well as the big drop back this morning. They’re not necessarily the end all be all, but I’m still curious about their perspective on this already wild session!
Thanks, Larry!
I already showed you exactly what happened, when and why.
Funny thing is that on bread and butter weather trades like this, how many times Natural Gas Intelligence gets it wrong.
There job is to report an explanation. More often than not its correct but they don't actually trade and i can tell that when they report sometimes. They have pretty good sources most of the time and way better than mine on fundamentals.
But their weather sources are not always that good. I used to use them more often but it seemed frustrating to use them and contradict my own source on weather so often in the same post.
It's after noon now but we have this below from the latest report by them from 8am. Well after we crashed lower. They were still reporting what had happened BEFORE the 6z GEFS turned a whopping -15 HDDs and was especially warm looking on the last maps.
That's likely because they don't trade or follow live natural gas or else they NEVER would have posted that when they did because it was WRONG. It was RIGHT 3 hours before that when they were putting it together for their deadline as a reporter to do their jobs but WRONG when they posted it because their jobs don't require them to check the actual price when posting. It makes them look really bad to actual traders that read their stuff.
I'm not trying to bash them, Larry. They have tons of great stuff, the majority of it in fact. I'm just telling you how it is.
Maybe something else happened at exactly the same time?
In an extremely sensitive weather market, right when one of the biggest bearish (HDD) weather model changes ever came out. Right when the market was at a double top with the March high and exactly in the time frame when NG makes its seasonal high and exactly after a long lived rally on colder and colder models ...........suddenly turned MUCH warmer.
++++++++
12:30pm: There is no question that we can still blow thru those highs and then some if the forecasts get cold enough, especially this early in the season and ESPECIALLY after the numerous Arctic blasts last Winter caused the many big weekly drawdowns in storage and big price surges last Winter.
Today is just 1 day and the ng market is only responding strongly to the freshest updated weather information today compared to what it had previous to that.
Last evenings gap higher was a combination of the MUCH colder 12z EE and longer range models a bit colder which was the freshest/latest weather on the open.
Larry,
As you may have noticed from the 12z maps, the 12z GEFS was close to the previous solutiion but the later arriving 12z EE was ~+4 HDDs bullish.
Much of the increase was from 3 data points in the week 1 forecast which are just changes in individual days not the pattern. The trajectory of the line is still bearish at the end of the period.
What added to the afternoon bounce that took us close to but not quite to a price approaching the midpoint of the daily trading bar was the late afternoon update of the European model weeklies which was COLDER. This is the end of week 1 in December:
Previous run from Sunday:
Things continue to line up for a shift to much colder in weeks 3 and beyond which will provide support.
+++++++++++++
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
Lines on the left were the gap higher on Sundays open. Small red line top/right is exactly when the bearish part of the 6z GEFS started coming out. Ending up a whopping -15 HDDs vs the previous 0z run as shown above in my 7:10 am post. This triggered the price collapse! Bottom red line was the lows for both Friday and Today.
Prices are almost to mid-range with 1 hour to go.
Not surprisingly, Natural Gas Intelligence is clueless about how the mega bearish, -15 HDD change in the 6 GEFS run triggered the huge drop in prices.
This is not that unusual. These people DO NOT TRADE based on their articles and its their jobs to have an explanation every day for why the priced moved and nobody fact checks them. They don't actually look at the weather themselves.
Today is one of their worst reports. They posted earlier, after the crash about higher prices and now they don't acknowledge the weather in this extremely sensitive weather market.
I agree that the market was overbought, which was exactly one of the several factors I identified in the perfect trading set up for selling, that made it so vulnerable to the crash that was so far and fast ON THE WEATHER.
As you know, no market trades X in price for every Y in fundamentals on an hourly or daily basis.
Averaged over weeks and months, yes.
But in the short term, markets get way overdone in one direction and then correct with an extreme over reaction in the opposite direction when the actual trigger might not justify the actual magnitude of the correction.
NG is a perfect example. It went too high recently and for sure with the over reaction gap higher last night that really surprised me too. So it was ripe for a correction/spike down from the massive --15 HDD reduction.
NG trading when the weather models go back and forth can throw off faulty signals. Today's was a pretty powerful gap and crap exhaustion gap at the end and top for a long move higher that really took off almost a month ago.
But much colder weather can flip it back, especially since the MJO, La Nina and models are all in good agreement on the change to much colder later this month(after a 2 week warm up).
This cold blast right now will be extremely short lived and is not really part of a pattern. The one coming at the end of the month is likely to last MUCH longer into November/December.
Moderate that cold at all and I think today was THE top.
More interesting reactions to weather overnight.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
1. Center" 0z guidance came out MILDER. Especially the EE that was -7 HDDs. This spiked us down to support.
2. The 6z GEFS did NOT have more HDDs, but get a load of the solution for North America at the end of the model run, mainly Alaska/Canada at the bottom. This is a classical set up for cold air delivery into the US! This is THE ANTICIPATED change to MUCH colder which has been supporting ng for weeks. 2nd from bottom map.
3. This was the previous run that looked much milder then, very bottom map.
++++++++++++++++++++
Milder 0z EE that helped spike us lower but we held support after that.
++++++++++++
GEFS weather model at the end of 2 weeks below:
1. Last 6z GEFS: Here comes the Arctic blast set up. Ridge building in Alaska, heights dropping downstream in Canada(upper level trough digging south) to N. USA. This is potentially very bullish/cold week 3 weather implications. Very impressive. The colors are the changes vs the previous run 6 hours earlier. Yellows are increases in heights. Blues are decreases.
2. Previous 0z run: Not so amplified and not the same ridge-northwest/west-trough/southeast couplet at higher latitudes as the top image from the last run.
As mentioned yesterday after the powerful, gap and crap buying exhaustion and top formation. We can change overnight if the weather turns colder and the last 6z GEFS is looking mighty cold as we head into week 3, which is the long expected pattern change to much colder.
This has completely trumped yesterday's chart formation. In sensitive weather markets, the weather forecast MAKES the formations. When the weather forecast changes, NEW formations are etched out on the price chart. If the weather forecast flips from colder to warmer, then back to colder. The chart formations and signals will whipsaw position traders that key off of the signals they get from price chart formations.
When the weather forecast changes continue in the same direction, that's the best time to apply "the trend is your friend" on all time frames as well as use price formations to determine whether to be long, short or stay on the sidelines.
This WAS a selling set up for me last week and Sunday/early Monday but that short came to fruition with a huge spike lower on Monday Morning. It was based on being way overbought from cold weather forecasts for several weeks and the trigger was a model forecast that was MUCH MILDER. That happened with the 6z GEFS on Monday morning and we dropped $2,000/contract lower.
Since that has been completely negated with a very bullish, complete recovery on Tuesday and the last maps look very cold and I believe that it WILL turn much colder in week 3, I'm neutral but can't help but have a shorting bias from the set up(seasonal tops are frequent in November).
Only shorting if models turn decidedly less cold, like Monday's 6z run. Buying will be tough for me up here because everybody is already long on cold. However, major, long lasting cold early in the season can take us far higher than you might expect.
++++++++++++++++
10:12am:
Potential upside breakout from longer term resistance!
The market is focused on a longer term pattern change to much colder towards the end of November.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
1. 1 year
2, 10 years
Honestly, the key is always to remain open to the possibility of being wrong, especially in weather markets.
Posting here helps me to do that. Yesterday, for instance if I didn't post stuff here, my personal bias would have been pretty convinced the gap and crap buying exhaustion Monday meant that ng was toast and to look for a place to get short.
However, since I DO post and it very often causes me to think harder about things because people are reading them, it caused me to better appreciate the big picture weather outlook and Monday's spike low could have just been an anomalous, short term overbought spike lower.
greenman told me numerous times, 2 decades ago that this was a big reason for him to post trades here. He said it caused him toSp be more disciplined.
1 trader here posts to get attention as the worlds greatest trader, that's the opposite of what I'm referring to. Others do it to share their valuable insights.
For me, sometimes its a pain when I'm trying to actually trade. However, sometimes it causes me to think harder about what I say or type because other people are reading it and I want them to benefit, not get misled.
This can end up benefiting me too!
As a chess coach, this is the principle that I teach more than any others to kids, who are impulsive by their nature.
Before making your next move:
1. Place the most importance on what your opponent did last. That is your best clue about what they are thinking/planning.
2. If you see a great move immediately. DON'T TAKE IT right away!!! Take several minutes to find A BETTER MOVE! Sometimes you will find it and gain something BIG! If you don't find a better move, THEN take that move with nothing lost(unless you're playing blitz chess on a clock-which means you should move fast).
This also applies to everything in life. If we are having an emotional argument with somebody and say hurtful things in anger impulsively, even though you can apologize later, it hurts your credibility and it hurts the other person. Once those words come out, you can't take the hurt they cause away. Instead, keep them in your head and think about the consequences later on of saying hurtful things now.
With regards to actions like that. A golden rule to live by which makes all decisions easier. Only do and say things that make you proud of you!!! Even if nobody is watching/listening, if you do something good, it makes YOU feel GOOD. If do something BAD, like tell a lie, cheat, steal etc and nobody will find out, it makes YOU feel BAD.
If doing bad things makes you feel good, then this principle doesn't work and you have a serious problem with pathological behavior and lack of a good conscience and need work on that.
Is this a ng thread or what
Based on how NG has been acting, especially the last 12 hours at least I'm thinking that the pattern at the end of week 2 REALLY MATTERS right now.
This pattern change to MUCH colder at the end of November has been forecast for many weeks now. It started after end of week 4 or so and has been marching closer and closer with the progression of time but always based on lower skill indicators (EE Weeklies, MJO, La Nina).
This week for the first time it's inside the 384 hour forecast window of higher skill models.
I do believe the 6z GEFS was the first model to pick up on it at the end of the period and NG shot up like a rocket.
The updated 12z GEFS is even more impressive. This map is the start of week 3. The ridge in Alaska that extends north, well into the Arctic, coupled with the deep upper level trough in Central Canada that extends into the central US is a classic couplet for Arctic blasts from meridional(north to south) flow. Being so far out, this can still change but its EXTREMELY bullish if its still there in a week. Things can change but the odds are greater for it to AMPLIFY with time than to go away. If it goes away, I want to be short!
If it amplifies, the only way I can buy is if there is meteoric 1 run, bullish change that energizes the bulls to buy at the market and I am one of the first ones in that new surge up.
++++++++++++++++++++++
The last 12z EE model BELOW doesn't go out quite as far and doesn't have everything lined up as well as the last 2 GEFS runs but its likely going to follow the same path soon. They both have the upper level ridge building in Western North America. The EE has a strong Southern stream which is out of phase with the northern stream. It temporarily has a TROUGH-west/RIDGE east. However, this looks transient and the trough in the west, when it shifts to the east will sync the southern stream with the northern stream better.
Those maps are just THE START of a potentially much colder pattern. This evening's updated longer range GEFS for 11-11-25 for the end of the first week in December was the coldest yet.
These are the absolute anomalies compared to average(not the change from the previous model).
Same forecast from yesterday:
This is 624 hours from now, which is 26 days. A lot can change but if anything its been getting colder!
Some of the last 0z Canadian ensemble model, individual member solutions were EXTREMELY bullish!
https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=384&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=gz
+++++++++++++++
What's extremely interesting is that the other overnight guidance, especially the EE HDDs was very bearish!!!
However, the market doesn't buy this because the overall pattern and indicators are strongly suggesting a change to extreme cold.
-9 HDDs below!! We spiked lower immediately but came roaring back.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
Red line is when this bearish HDD guidance came out:
The updated 12z Canadian model has gone from being the coldest model already 12 hours ago to BEING EVEN COLDER. Holy Cow!!!
https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=384&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=gz
https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=384&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm
The last 12z EE was a whopping +12 HDDs but seemed to have put in a buying exhaustion high afterwards. Left purple on the graphs below.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
1. 1 year: Upside break out?
2. 1 week: Upside break out with potential short term exhaustion? That wasn't a great way for the market to behave after a +12 HDD forecast from the most important model! However, way up here, still 2+ weeks from the actual cold, it may be tough to keep going straight up(without big downward spike/corrections) after dialing in massive amounts of cold already.
This is a mega selling set up for me, for all the reasons mentioned before except now, EVEN MORE SO with additional risk/reward. If the cold coming late this month goes away, NG will plunge $5,000/contract fast!!
My earlier post repeated last weeks EIA report because I didn't realize its delayed 1 day this week because of the holiday. Sorry about that!
7 day temps for this NEXT weekly EIA storage report.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php
I'm thinking that next week will be the first drawdown of this heating season!
9pm: Just added this. Long term resistance and highest price in almost 3 years!
There could be something else going on too. Trump killing green energy, which has reduced wind energy and might increase the demand for natural gas and we are pushing ng exports???
Mr. cheap fossil fuels isn't looking so great in the natural gas market right now or with the bullish EIA report below.
++++++++++
This was 10 months ago and price projections like this tend to display poor skill anyway:
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64344
+++++++++++++
Nat Gas Intelligence reporting this, makes me especially wanting to SELL!
Release Date: November 12, 2025
NG is having a massive down day for 2 reasons mainly.
1. Yesterdays buying exhaustion signal we showed you. The 12 EE came out MEGA bullish and the market actually sold off after that. 1st red line below. Bull markets that can't go higher anymore on the most bullish news yet have exhausted the buying.
2. The following 0 EE below came out SUPER MEGA bearish and down we went. 2nd red line below. I wanted to short this but the initial reaction down had already happened and couldn't sell it down there.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
-19 HDDs on this last 0z European Ensemble model in purple on the left compared to the much more bullish previous run shown above when it came out Thursday(and the market failed to react bullishly to). That's about as bearish of a model to model run as I've ever seen!!!
By metmike - Nov. 13, 2025, 4:25 p.m.
+++++++++++++
I'm inclined to think that this was not THE top if the long range maps are correct and we turn brutally cold at the end of November with a pattern change that lasts in early December.
Take that away and this WAS the top. NG is well known for gaps on Sunday Night, just like the gap higher this past Sunday. This is a situation where the chance for a gap higher or lower is greatly amplified. The one thing that reduces that chance is the fact that our range today is EXTREMELY WIDE. ......$2,700/contract.
I'm thinking too that since that frigid pattern is still valid, unless the 12z models change to much less cold ,that we could close in the upper part of the range today. .....despite the massive drop.
This will be the most important weather weekend for ng since, at least last Winter, maybe longer. I was short for a tiny profit daytrade last Friday and considered being short just 1 contract over the weekend and would have been crushed on the open Sunday Night with my shorting bias. Instead, getting lucky and shorting 5 contracts on the Sunday Night open(highs for the evening) lucked me into a small profit.
So timing IS EVERYTHING!!! If I had been short over the weekend, I would have been looking to buy it back on Sunday evening to reduce my loss. Instead, I did the opposite by shorting Sunday evenings open and covering with a profit.
This is what happens in an extremely weather sensitive market WHEN THE WEATHER FORECAST CHANGES! When the weather forecast stays the same, position traders make the most money by using "the trend is your friend" and letting the continuous bullish or bearish forcing from weather keep the price going in the same direction overall.
Overall, despite these violent, short term corrections from a milder model run(s), the trend is still SOLIDLY UP!
+++++++++++++++++
Considering how brutally cold the models look for early December, I'm actually more inclined to be LONG over the weekend and DEFY the huge selling set up. If it does turn this cold, I feel confident that NG could spike up another $10k/contract and could start next week with a gap higher.
However, too much of that cold is in the market and everybody knows about it and has been trading it for so long that if the weather models do what weather models sometimes do..........change, especially over a weekend to milder, the bulls covering by itself will contribute to $X,000/contract lower in a flash and it will gap way lower on the open.
Another way to look at it from the bullish side that is powerful. On Sunday, 2 mild days at the front end of the forecast will be replaced by 2 MUCH COLDER days at the end of the forecast. In other words, 2 days closer to the frigid pattern. I don't care how much we've gone up the past month, if that much cold really hits, with near 100% certainty we still have a long way to go up as it gets closer and closer. +$10k/contract is reasonable if it lasts for 2 weeks.
I forgot about the EIA being delayed a day.
+45 Bcf in early November is pretty bearish!
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
for week ending November 7, 2025 | Released: November 14, 2025 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: November 20, 2025
| underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (11/07/24) | 5-year average (2020-24) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 11/07/25 | 10/31/25 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 914 | 909 | 5 | 5 | 942 | -3.0 | 917 | -0.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 1,117 | 1,105 | 12 | 12 | 1,139 | -1.9 | 1,106 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 290 | 288 | 2 | 2 | 291 | -0.3 | 242 | 19.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 321 | 318 | 3 | 3 | 312 | 2.9 | 285 | 12.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 1,318 | 1,296 | 22 | 22 | 1,282 | 2.8 | 1,238 | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 353 | 341 | 12 | 12 | 345 | 2.3 | 332 | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 965 | 955 | 10 | 10 | 938 | 2.9 | 906 | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 3,960 | 3,915 | 45 | 45 | 3,966 | -0.2 | 3,788 | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working gas in storage was 3,960 Bcf as of Friday, November 7, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 45 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 6 Bcf less than last year at this time and 172 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,788 Bcf. At 3,960 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2020 through 2024. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.
++++++++++++++++++++++
The JOURNALIST from Nat. Gas Intelligence's price reaction description after the report got it exactly............WRONG!
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Friday reported an injection of 45 Bcf natural gas into storage for the week ended Nov. 7. The result exceeded expectations and the five-year average build of 35 Bcf. Nymex natural gas futures struggled to find their footing after the print.
++++++++++++++
What REALLY happened is that upon the very bearish release, NG spiked down for just SECONDS and was already on the way back up less than a minute later and has been going up since then.
As mentioned previously, these REPORTERS don't actually trade and they are paid to SAY SOMETHING, often with no accountability when it comes to the price reactions and reasoning for them.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
1. 1 day chart. Red line at the top is when the much milder(less HDDs) 0z models starting coming out.
Red line at the bottom was THE low which happened a few seconds after the EIA was released at 9:30am..........and it was UP after that.
This will mean EVERYTHING to the market price next week as that period will be WEEK 2 in the forecast next week.
This has been traded for almost a month. There were be 2 huge factors that will be different.
1. The cold will be getting 1 day closer with each turn of the calendar page.
2. The forecasts might stay the same OR more likely there will be deviations from the previous day(s). Those deviations will determine the price direction and magnitude.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/
++++++++++
One reason that the upcoming pattern MIGHT be especially cold is that it might not just be Northern Canadian/Arctic cold but the Canadian model especially and many of the GEFS ensembles here have CROSS POLAR FLOW. The coldest air on the planet in the Northern Hemisphere Winters brews in Siberia. If this flow taps into that it would be especially cold.
Note some of the streamlines on this 12z GEFS average that are aimed into Western Canada, originate from the other side of the Northern Hemisphere. This map is for the end of November.
