BEARISH corn!
BULLISH beans!
BULLISH cotton!
Previous thread:
Grains 7-27-25
47 responses |
Started by metmike - July 27, 2025, 8:39 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/113471/
Latest weather:
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US corn yield comes in above all trade estimates. Soybean yield lands at the top end but production is down.
Big harvested area moves in US corn and soybeans..... made for a massive corn crop above all expectations, but soybean output is lower than previously predicted.
Old crop corn and soybean exports were up, trimming stocks. New-crop corn stocks come in high on a massive crop, but soybean stocks are lower than previously predicted, and new-crop exports were cut.
USDA increased 2024/25 Argentine soybean production, but all other major South American corn/soy estimates were unchanged. No change to 2024/25 Brazil corn production despite industry estimates moving higher.
Big story on the world stage is the absolutely massive US corn harvest estimate. US soybean and wheat stocks contracted from last month, and that was reflected in the world numbers. No change to new-crop Chinese imports and very minimal changes to crops in S. America this month.
Overall, minimal change to 2025/26 US wheat production from last month. Higher winter output offset lower spring output.
SDA sets 2025 US corn yield at 188.8 bu/acre, far above the year-ago record of 179.3. Here's how the 2025 yields compare with last year. Records expected in many of the top states.
USDA's 188.8 bu/acre US corn yield lands outside the range of trade estimates for the 7th of the last 12 Augusts. The yield was 2.4% above the average trade estimate, not quite as extreme as the 2015, 2016 & 2019 misses.
USDA projects 2025 US soybean yield at 53.6 bu/acre, well above 2016's record of 51.9 bu/acre. Last year finished dry, and soybean yield suffered. Here's how the 2025 estimates compare with a year ago by state.
Huge drop in US soybean planted acres versus the June survey. Lots of losses across southern states. Total planted area is seen 7% lower than a year ago. This is the lowest "natural" US bean area in 12 years (I'm excluding 2019 since weather extensively limited planting).
metmike: Some of those areas with the huge drops were TOO WET to plant. This also reduced cotton acres!
Crop Production
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/crop0825.pdf
Corn Production Up 13 Percent from 2024
Soybean Production Down 2 Percent from 2024
Cotton Production Down 8 Percent from 2024
Winter Wheat Production Up 1 Percent from July Forecast
All cotton planted area totaled 9.28 million acres, down 8 percent from the previous forecast and down 17 percent from
2024. All cotton area harvested is forecast at 7.36 million acres, down 6 percent from 2024. All cotton production is
forecast at 13.2 million 480-pound bales, down 8 percent from 2024. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are
expected to average 862 pounds per harvested acre, down 24 pounds from 2024. Upland cotton production is forecast at
12.9 million 480-pound bales, down 8 percent from 2024. Pima cotton production is forecast at 364,000 bales, down
23 percent from 2024
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Imagine where bean prices would be right now if Trump hadn't completely killed sales to China this year!
From yesterday:
metmike: This is why the USDA is predicting record yields.
US corn and soybean conditions each drop 1pt as expected this week, cotton drops 2pts. Spring wheat harvest is moving a bit faster than predicted (but slower than average). Winter wheat harvest is nearly complete (and 2026/27 planting is not far away!).
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Last week's US corn and soybean export inspections top all trade estimates. Wheat comes in at the low end. No cargoes inspected for China.
The weather forecast has been getting cooler and cooler the last several days. The NWS is finally catching up.
With the northern stream becoming more dominant and the heat ridge backing up, this will also be a DRY pattern. Good for slowing the maturity rate of corn plants and extending kernel filling, and with ample soil moisture for corn that has deep roots(though more rain than this would be optimal).
August is critical pod filling for beans. Dry weather will take off the top end of yields in places that miss out on all the rain, even without intense heat. However, a cool down will reduce stress and delay a flash drought which is still likely in some areas with this pattern as we start September.
All the latest weather here:
Matt was in this morning!
Been posting at the older/previous link the last few days:
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Grains 7-27-25
By metmike - Aug. 15, 2025, 1:37 p.m.
Still not much rain in most of the belt the next 10 days(exception is the far Upper Midwest).
10 day totals from the last 6z GEFS(heavy in the far north areas:
However, the European Ensemble model continues to greatly boost rains late in week 2.
1. Rainfall anomaly days 1-10
2. This is the rainfall anomaly for days 11-15 from that model:
3. The heat will really start picking up late in week 2. This was the last 500 mb map from the EE model.
4. CDDs for just the Midwest. Note the strong upward trajectory for the last 4 data points. This is the new pattern that will feature much more heat in week 3.
The last 12z GEFS run for just the Midwest(purple) had a mind boggling -21 CDDs compared to the previous run.
In fact, the last 4 data points late in week 2 have a completely different trajectory compared to the previous 3 runs(that were going straight up-from heat expanding rapidly). This last run maintains the cooler pattern for at least several more days at the end of the period because of a stronger northern stream which the models have not predicted well all Summer.
after this hot dry period I would bet most of those 188/a guys would like a do over. Many places were short the last couple of rains and with 100 plus heat index you can already see some of the earlier planted fields dropping under developed ears. Also many big time corn choppers for feed {usually dairys] are getting geared up to chop 2 weeks early.
Thanks, mcfarm!
Yeah, that 188 bu/acre was a shocker.
I won’t go into why I think the USDA is dishonest for self serving reasons again right now but it’s just another example of their numbers being outside the entire range of guesses by all the market experts, some of which have experienced agronomists along with massive, comprehensive measuring data that is greater than what the USDA uses In some realms.
Just about everybody overlooks positive benefits from the increase in CO2 in this great climate optimum.
The last 12z European ensemble mean model(purple/right) was a whopping -23 CDDs cooler compared to the previous run for just the Midwest.
With more northern stream and less ridging building in from the south(with warm/humid air returning with the previous solutions) its also a bit DRIER in week 2 than the previous runs that weres showing an uptick in rain amounts/chances.
Less ridging in the Southeast now. This could end up MORE bullish if the upper level ridge stays farther west and especially if it builds north into the Plains/Midwest, where the greatest positive anomalies are now.
Yesterday's solution at the end of week 2: Huge upper level ridge across the entire south with warm humid air pushing northward beneath it, increasing rains in the Midwest/areas north of the ridge.
Regardless of the high uncertainty at for the last week in August and start of September, this is the 7 day rainfall map.
Pretty close to what was expected the last several days. Nice rains in the Upper Midwest. Drying out in the I states to Ohio with some intense heat for the next several day increasing the drying rates and causing big time HEAT FILL for corn kernels in the southern areas.
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Here's our best thread for explaining and illustrating this principle:
HeatFill for Corn
Started by metmike - July 14, 2023, 2:47 p.m.
"nice rains"....its all relative. Some of the wet places in Minn got a nice 7 inches. That is what is hurting crops up north.
Thanks, mcfarm.
Not surprising in August, when you have an active pattern around the periphery/over the top of a heat ridge. Storms often have a tremendous amount of water vapor coming up from the south to feed on. In this case, we had 70 deg. F dew points all the way to southern MN.
I counted 8 stations with instruments near heavy transpiring cornfields in IA that had 79+ degree dew points last hour with an incredible 84 deg. F dew point in central IA!
https://www.usairnet.com/weather/maps/current/iowa/dew-points/
Rains the past 7 days thru yesterday/Saturday morning. The tiny yellow specks were 8 inches of rain.
Additional follow up to this and the impact in Indiana this weekend:
Re: mother nature in total control again
By metmike - Aug. 17, 2025, 3:38 p.m.
Re: Re: mother nature in total control again
By metmike - Aug. 17, 2025, 3:44 p.m.
1. These were the last 4 runs of the cooler GEFS model, for just the Midwest. The last 1 on the right in purple, 12z run shows another huge drop of -14 CDDs. This is mind boggling cooling compared to expectations earlier this month.
So much cooling that we actually have some HDDs on the left!!!
2. This was the same graph from 12 days ago(8-5-25), BEFORE the models caught on to how much northern stream influence would blast down from Canada.
There was a progression of days of course but the total CDDs for the Midwest on the 8-5-25 was 175 CDDs.
The total CDDs for the Midwest for the same length of time(15 days) on 8-17-25 is 88 CDDS.
-87 CDDs in the forecast from 12 days ago. Granted, seasonally we should be dropping at the rate shown by the green dashed line and maybe have lost ~15 CDDs seasonally for this region/chart. So the drop was -72 CDDs on top of the seasonal adjustment downward.
This is likely in the top 10 for cooling changes this quickly in August for the Midwest for the last couple of decades.
Grains under a bit of pressure from the start from that much cooler weather forecast described above.
Beans -6c, Corn -2.5c.
The much cooler weather for individual days was dialed in overnight.
The day session traders decided that was old news and jumped on the lower prices at 8:30 am with aggressive buying from the get go.
The 2nd half of August, historically in good crop years have a positive seasonal(after the market sees the HUGE August crop report) and does a sell the rumor, buy the fact price reaction.
This seasonal turns back down in September as we start early harvesting.
Despite the much cooler period coming up:
1. Most places will experience net drying. The return of rains during week 2 is uncertain.
2. Temps will heat back up late in the month.
3. The weather has a hard time taking front stage this late in the growing season unless the weather is pretty extreme. Right now, I would call the changes in temperatures bearish but the lack of rains bullish, with neither of them extreme.
Great site for seasonals! The little upward seasonal in the 2nd half of August is most pronounced for beans compared to corn.
Wheat often bottoms early/mid harvest during June or the start of July, then has a very strong UP seasonal signal into October.
https://equityclock.com/seasonality/
https://equityclock.com/charts/
https://charts.equityclock.com/corn-futures-c-seasonal-chart
https://charts.equityclock.com/soybeans-futures-s-seasonal-chart
https://charts.equityclock.com/wheat-futures-w-seasonal-chart
