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USDA June 30, 2025
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Started by metmike - June 30, 2025, 12:14 p.m
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/112905/
Beans gapped lower on the open because of bearish weather. Corn is also lower! Neither of them can add to early losses.
Corn and Beans act like they don't want to go lower.
The HUUUGE risk for the bears in beans right now is if Trump announces some sort of trade deal with China.
I would be careful being short beans for anything but day trades.
If Trump announced a trade deal with China while the market is closed, it WILL open double digits higher.
30c+ higher is possible on the next open. Maybe much more than that because hundreds of traders would, all at once want out of their shorts (panic buying) with traders interested in selling, holding off until the spike/surge and buying subside. So the market would need to go to a price high enough to uncover enough fresh selling to match up with the enormous buying on the open.
If the market opened 30c+ higher, traders that are holding short and suddenly under water, could panic and want out at the market which could provide a spike to limit up even.
At least with a day trade, you can have a trailing stop to limit the risk to Xc or whatever your risk tolerance is.
I actually covered my SX short (1021 fill at close Friday) when beans started holding the 1016 level around 9:30 pm. I then placed a buy at 1014 and went to bed. Now long 1014. stop 1009.5
Bitcoin next long!
Thanks, tjc!
I don't see the weather as being powerful enough (for me) to drive prices.
If we'd been going up a lot from bullish weather, I would be looking for a short based on this overall bearish forecast and the crop getting closer to being made.
Since we're closer to the lows, like you I would usually be looking to go long but the weather is currently too bearish. Even though it will be getting drier in several places in August, it's not hot enough and soil moisture is wonderful in most places right now.
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At this time of year, the week 1 forecast with this much rain, will usually trump everything else.
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Soil moisture is as good as it gets in the United States/Cornbelt in late July! The dryness in NE/IA has been wiped out!
Last 7 days rain below:
Previous 7 days:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83853
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
After a very cool period, week 2 will start heating up again but NO DOME and more rains coming!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852
All the weather here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
These were the CDDs from the last 0z European Ensemble model for just the Midwest. Below average for a week(below normal temps) heating up in week 2 but with good rains.
August 11th, 500 mb map.
NO THREAT from the dome with northwest flow around the periphery and perturbations in the northwest flow(vorticity in yellow) tracking around the periphery of the heat ridge into the Cornbelt.
The northern stream which is bringing the very cool weather this week has retreated back into Canada.
Weather remains BEARISH!
US corn conditions fall 1 point as expected, but soybeans rise 2 points instead of the predicted 1pt decline. Spring wheat & cotton conditions also fell on the week. Don't forget: USDA has US spring wheat yield close to the year-ago levels (49% ge now vs 74% ge yr ago).
Bears could gap lower on the open tonight with the improvement compared to expectations.(3% better).
This was after a big drop last week, that followed a big improvement the week before. Not sure why the market would have expected a decline with that great weather last week, especially in IL.
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US soybean conditions rise 2 pts on the week to 70% good/excellent. Improvements across top states - including a 5pt jump in top producer Illinois - offset various declines. 70% g/e is the week's best rating since 2020
US corn conditions fall 1 pt on the week based on declines in Minnesota and a few other states. But the I-states each improved by 1 pt. Top grower Iowa's corn crop is now 87% good/excellent, the best score for any week since 1994.
Eric was in with his excellent weather presentation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRgkVHKu5yw
Matt is in with the weather today:
Same bearish forecast, like a broken record here on the morning of 7-30-25
1. This was the just out 6z GEFS for total precip thru 384 hours. Light blue is at least 2" of rain the next 2 weeks. The southwest parts of the Cornbelt get the least rain but even there, it's CLOSE TO average. The I states have 2" or more which is a bit ABOVE average. Temps warm back up in week 2 but no dome threat.
2. There were the CDDs from the last 0z(purple line on the right) European Ensemble model. Cool week 1, then heating up in week 2. Not quite as hot on this last run in week 2.
3. Upper level, 500 mb chart from the last 0z EE on August 14th. Heat ridge/dome in the southwest with ridging into the C/S Plains. Perturbations around the periphery of the ridge, tracking in northwest flow into the Midwest and triggering several chances for shwrs and t'shwrs that continue in week 2 and keeping the ridge from expanding.
To be bullish, that heat ridge/dome would need to shift northeast, at least 500 miles from its current forecast position on the models.
If not for Trump's tariffs completely shutting down all of our soybean exports to our #1 soybean trading partner, China for numerous months, beans would be at least 50c higher. Maybe $1 higher?
China's leader is a very sharp and stable guy that isn't going to be intimated by President Trump.
He's watching things fall apart with Trumps tariffs and personal life and like he usually does is using his brain and good judgment to do what's best for China. In 2025, that has meant buying all of China's beans from South America, even paying higher prices than our beans in the US.
If Trump keeps extending his deadlines with China for a few more months, the United States, which has already lost sales of alot of ag. products will completely miss out on locking in sales of new crop this Fall.
The great weather and promise for a big crop is already putting pressure on prices.
NOBODY can do much about the weather. We should be glad it's going to gift us with more robust new crop supplies. As usual, that means lower prices than we have when the weather is bad and the crop is smaller.
However, OUR PRESIDENT has 100% control of our trading policies with China and he is hanging the US farmer out to dry. The export market is a key determinant for demand of our products. Exports to China has been intentionally shut down for reasons that are counterproductive.
This is a lose-lose situation! Hopefully, something will change soon before our producers lose even more money.
A sudden deal with China, although not able to get back lost sales so far could spike beans by 50c in a day.
Considering all the negatives, it's amazing beans and corn won't go any lower. They continue to act pretty resilient considering how bearish the weather forecast is and how good the current crop is.
When a market can't go any lower on bearish news.......its often a subtle sign of underlying bullishness.
However, another thought is that traders are afraid to pile on the new shorts because if Trump suddenly makes a deal with China, all those new shorts will get crushed badly.
Maybe we'll see a reaction after the August 1st deadline passes and he mover the goal posts again.
This really is NOT a good trading environment for anybody. So much uncertainty and pain for US producers.
Rain amounts have dropped off in a big way on the latest 6z GEFS.
This could be a big enough change to turn the C and S back up!
Let me assess this better and report back later today!
The last 0z European Ensemble model is not quite as dry but does have the same idea with a pretty big drier than average pocket, centered over IA, extending a bit south and all the way north/northeast to Canada.
The problem is that its WET to the west of that and at least average rains to the east.
To REALLY be bullish, we need to incorporate more drier than normal terrain but this is DEFINITELY A BIG START.
I feel that if this dry area expands, the lows will be in.
The next week will be very cool in the Midwest, so any stress on the crops will take a long time to develop and not happen until mid August. This is actually what happened last year, with a flash DROUGHT developing in the ECB.
It's LATE in the growing season but kernel fill for corn is still going on for another month and August is a KEY time frame for beans to fill pods. The 2024 pods in many ECB states were small compared to average from the flash drought in late August/September.
Bullish weather in August does not generate nearly the buying from large specs that bullish weather in June/July or earlier does. The market knows that XX% of the crop is already made. So the impact is not nearly as great. Every day is a day closer to harvest and new crop supplies too, with typical seasonal pressure as we approach that time frame.
The other HUGE wild card is the tariff deadline with China coming up tomorrow. A deal could spike the beans 50c+ immediately. No deal, like has been the case the 4 pat months means more ZERO exports of beans to China, the main buyer of our beans. No deal thru the harvest will continue to kill sales at the most important time of year.
it’s hard to be bullish beans against ZERO exports to China.
The CDDs on the last 0z EE were a whopping -7 CDDs. Quite a bit cooler, so temperatures were more bearish/cooler overnight, especially in the week 2 period that will be heating up.
The forecast rains are leaning BULLISH now, especial on the European model! However, temps on the last 6z GEFS cooled off alot late in week 2(and the GEFS has closer to average rains) and Trumps tariffs on China are mega bearish and KILLING BEAN PRICES.
'
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
This was rain departure from normal for the next 2 week on the last 0z European Ensemble model:
These were the rains on the last 6z GEFS model for the same time frame used above. Not AS dry but IA is the epicenter of the slightly drier than average tendency in the Central Cornbelt.
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These were the CDDs from just the Midwest from that last 0Z EE model above. +5 CCDs.........so HOTTER than the previous 12z run, all from more week 2 heat. This is why the forecast that includes the drier forecast on the EE model is bullish on that model. The greatest heat, however is also where some rains will hit in the far northwest belt.
Here's the last 500 mb map from that last 0z EE run. The dome in still to far southwest to be a threat and the Midwest continues in northwest flow with chances for perturbations coming around the periphery of the heat ridge trigger rains in the Cornbelt.
However, in August, historically northwest flow DRIES UP compared to the WETTER June/July analogs. Soils are wet enough right now so that they will still help to add more rain to weather systems coming thru. It will be hard to hurt the crop with this much soil moisture, now that we are in August. That is, without the heat ridge/dome shifting at least another 600+ miles northeast or the rains completely shutting down.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
