back to trading weather
I'm still firmly in the bullish weather camp right now.
The huge changes in the models to much cooler in the East and South is pounding natural gas. Some of that cooler will impact the Cornbelt and MIGHT introduce more northwest flow, upper level perturbations but I'm not sure.
The European model is by far the driest: 2 week rain anomalies.
The American model below is not so dry, in fact its got above average greens in some places. What a contrast for the same period as the map above(next 15 days). Even if I was completely convinced of the map above, for prices to respond bullishly at this time of year, the big traders also have to believe in it.
Also, we are 1 hour after the release of the report. There could still be some lingering reactions vs expectations since the models have an incredible disparity in rainfall(with more cooling than Friday because the upper level dome retrogrades farther west than before).
I'm also still barely in the camp of us putting the lows in because the pattern turns more bullish in July but with less confidence than last week because the upper level dome is not as threatening and now we have much cooler temps than we did on Friday.
This not especially bullish or bearish.......at the moment but for Evansville IN, where we live its disappointing. We got .19 early this morning which was the first rain in almost 2 weeks and last weeks highs in the 90's has dried out the top layers of soil.
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
I plugged in the CDDs for just the Midwest the next 2 weeks on the European Ensemble model below on the right with the purple being the last 0z run. Its very revealing. Instead of heat in week 2 we now have temps CRASHING down to average and even a bit below average for several days. After the brief spike higher in heat later this week, these are BEARISH temperatures for beans and especially corn in July. Especially corn because this would be good for pollination.
Longer range forecasts like this have low skill!
This was the July rainfall anomaly map from the last GEFS(update every evening):
This was the same map from the last European model, updated late every afternoon. Much more bullish/drier:
These were the July Temperatures from the last GEFS. The heat backed up to the Plains and N.Rockies:
This is not much different than the same temperature map that the market had on Friday:
Again, long range forecasts that go out this far often have low skill but what we can assume with high confidence is that the hotter temperatures are mostly likely in the Plains to the WCB, which is where the least amount of rain is likely to fall.
The last 12z EE directly below added alot of rain compared to the previous 0z run, 2nd map below. This is the anomaly compared to average.
I'm intentionally making these maps small since this thread is going to get long with updates pretty fast.
This was the last 12z GFS for 2 week(16 day) rains, still pretty bearish. 2nd map was the previous 6z run.
USDA's June area survey showed similar US #corn plantings as the March survey, though there were some differences by state. June acres came in lower than in March across many of the top producing states.
Similar to corn, US #soybean acres were steady or lower versus March across many of the top states. This represents the smallest soybean area nationally since 2020 and the third smallest of the last decade.
The third lowest bean area of the last 10 years (behind 2019 & 2020, which featured planting interruptions). So basically you can say that this is the lowest "natural" US soybean acreage since 2015. Remember when 90 million was the benchmark? Does 45Z impact this for 2026?
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Get all the detailed USDA reports here:
Crop condition:
Corn unchanged
Beans +3%
Cotton +4%
HRS Wheat -1%
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/
