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By metmike - June 29, 2025, 4:37 p.m.
Big COOLER changes in the week 2 part of the forecast where the upper level ridge backs up westward and a modest trough develops in the eastern 1/3rd of the country by day 11. This cools temps in that part of the country to BELOW average for several days with the heat retrograding to the West, spilling out to the N.Plains.
(The automated NWS 8-14 day is out to lunch today and too hot in the areas in blue below.
These are the coolest days Fri-Sun July 11-13th. This is the departure from average highs.
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By metmike - June 27, 2025, 8:16 a.m.
The last 0z European Ensemble model in purple, on the right was a whopping +5.6 CDDs vs the previous 0z run. NG prices have spiked higher overnight.
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Here was the just updated 12z EE model CDDs. -3 CDDs from the previous 0z run, 12 hours earlier but LOOK AT WEEK 2!!!! This run is 2.5 days later than the one above, there is a shift of 2.5 days to the left below.
1. The heat spike is MUCH EARLIER and more intense. However the the last 5 days are the complete opposite. On Friday, above they were going straight up, last 2 data points around 16.5. On Sunday, below they are crashing down last 2 data points 14.5.
Out to lunch in the East!!!
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
NG opened slightly lower and has been under selling pressure from the open -$580/contract now. This is because of the much cooler change described above. Weekly price below.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
Sunday night chart: 6:28 pm update: Remaining under pressure since the open!
0Z EE was an additional -2 CDDS vs the previous 12z run, so natural has been making new lows for the session overnight. Temps are almost down the green climatological average at the end of the period from the new pattern described above.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
The last 24 hours, including Friday morning after the overnight models got much hotter and prices soared higher on Friday. Giving up much of those gains overnight Sunday.
The EIA report for this Thursday, will NOT be robust like the previous 10+ reports. However, the market dialed in the much lower injection much earlier this months.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php
Natural gas prices continue to have one of their weakest days ever because of the weather pattern change in week 2 described above on Sunday.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
1. 1 day: Friday featured massive, buying from much hotter overnight weather models that accelerated after the even hotter midday model. That hit a top, where we opened close to Sunday evening. Since then we've been under tremendous waves of intensifying, aggressive selling pressure since the open Sunday evening(Just below the top red line which was Fridays high)
2. 1 week: Last weeks low for the new August contract is the bottom red line(put in just after the BEARISH EIA report on Thursday). Highs on Friday are the top red line. We opened close to the top last evening and now are already approaching last weeks lows. The lower prices the day before were from the previous JULY CONTRACT that was trading $2,000/contract LOWER than the current August contract. The straight up spike higher($2,000) was the rollover from the July to the August price for graphing purposes.
The NWS was much closer with their 8-14 day outlook today compared to yesterday being much too hot.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852
