Karen Braun@kannbwx

Trade estimates for USDA's WASDE on Thursday suggest that 2024/25 Brazilian #corn production is the one to watch in South America. Analysts see some decent upside there. Otherwise, minimal changes are expected for #soybeans and Argentine crops, on average.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

Analysts think old-crop U.S. #corn ending stocks could dip below 1.4 bbu on Thursday, though #soybeans & #wheat are pegged mostly steady. Trade is likely looking for a boost to old-crop corn exports due to the brisk sales and export paces.

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The trade is not anticipating bullish numbers for global new-crop ending stocks on Thursday. A slight trim in U.S. #corn stocks could be offset by a bigger Brazilian crop.

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Will the recent rise in U.S. winter #wheat ratings boost the crop size? Average trade estimates don't really seem to think so. Last month, the 2025/26 wheat crop came in at the top end of trade expectations.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

6h

US #ethanol production last week hit an all-time high for any week of 1.12 million barrels per day. Implied usage over the last four weeks also hit record highs, driving ethanol stocks to a 23-week low.

Matt is in today:   

  June 11, 2025: Drought Checkboxes | Bermuda High | Southeast Ridge | Active Stormy Pattern    

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dU15yrQAUc0

Canadian Prairie Weather Story with Andrew Pritchard | June 11th, 2025

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7Enkhef-o8

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Just out 18z GEFS precip the next 384 hours. Still bearish.

Total  2 week rains from the just out 6z GEFS. Bright blue is 2"+ which is everywhere. First shade of purple is 3+ inches. 

Compared to average below

Last 0z European model vs average below: Much drier but still not dry.

1. This is the HUGE upper level heat ridge on day 10, with height anomalies. This may shut down the rains underneath the dome with ring of fire perturbations coming around the periphery. 

2. Below that are temperature anomalies.

There's a chance for enough warm air aloft from the dome to cap a huge area underneath it that exceeds expectations. This is NOT the type of weather pattern we prefer for growing crops. 

Always very important are rains the next week. This map constantly updates vs the frozen images above.

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

All the constantly updated weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/

11 am is the USDA.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

US #corn stocks come in below expectations on a boost to old-crop exports. No changes for #soybeans,  but new-crop #wheat exports were increased, thus lowering stocks.

Virtually no change on 2025/26 US #wheat production this month, which is still largely driven by the winter wheat estimates. NASS will add its spring and durum wheat forecasts to the mix next month, which could shake things up.

USDA leaves South American corn and soybean production unchanged from last month on all fronts. Fun fact: Conab's estimate for Brazil's 24/25 soybean crop is now higher than USDA's.

World #wheat stocks fall from last month on higher exports and lower old-crop Russian supply. #Corn stocks are below expectations and last month due to a reduction in old-crop supply. #Soybeans are up from last month on reduced old-crop crush in China.

metmike: USDA must be assuming that the tariffs will be hurting our exports in making such a low forecast!

Karen Braun@kannbwx

15m

As of June 5, US #corn export sales for 2024/25 covered 98% of USDA's brand-new export target of 2.65 billion bushels. In the last 18 years, there were 8 where coverage by this point exceeded 95%. Seven of those 8 saw bigger final exports than what USDA estimated in June.

11m

Will the huge export volume be limiting? The 2020/21 outlier might raise that concern, but there isn't necessarily strong evidence to support it. Exports exceeded 2.2 bln bu in 6 of the last 18 years. Final exports were lower than the June estimate twice (07/08, 20/21).

Exports exceeded 2.2 bln bu in 6 of the last 18 years. Final exports were lower than the June estimate twice (07/08, 20/21).

Heeeeeere's Eric:

June 13, 2025: CSU Hurricane Season Update | Hotter/Drier/Windier Southern Plains | Ridge Riders

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2s34saz6L4

Low skill forecast, weeks 3-4. Just updated here on 6-13-25.

I agree pretty much on the temps. Intense heat West, spilling into the Plains. 

On the precip. I would decrease amounts in the Plains to possibly the western Cornbelt. 

Updated drought page:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83853

This is why the rains in the next week will be appreciated in IA.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83848

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Late June and July are looking pretty hot still in the Plains, northwestward, with the heat spilling eastward at times.  I think rains will start shutting down in the Plains/WCB in early July.

These are the temp anomalies in the last week of July below. Keep in mind that this is the hottest time of year, when its toughest to have positive temp anomalies.  Highs will likely be hitting 100 degrees in the Plains!

Is this forecast 'enough' to buy, or at least cover shorts?

Hi tjc,

I dunno. Still too much rain between now and when the heat ridge shifts in and starts shutting down the rains in the Plains and WCB for ME to buy but that's the current weather trading set up.

Buy when enough rain comes out or has already fallen and then the dome is within 2 weeks and MORE impressive.

My biggest draw downs in the past were when I bought "too soon" and tried to hang on.

I can't afford that this time, so ideally what would be nice is that OVERNIGHT next week, all the models would simultaneously shift the dome into the Cornbelt earlier and stronger to provide a definitive weather trade buying signal.

The latest forecast below, with this much rain over IA, which NEEDS the rain is pretty short term bearish.

However the market knows much of this and is trading on weather for late June/July. 

For example, if all the rains predicted below fall but the weather turns hot/dry for weeks after that it's very bullish.

Waiting until its obvious, means that everybody else knows too already and you will pay a hefty premium/higher prices for waiting until the early birds are already long.

 I know how much you love being an early bird, tjc and that's why you just asked that question!

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

All the constantly updated weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/