Here’s a new NG thread. The weekly EIA was slightly bearish with a +120 vs a range of 106 to 130.
Thanks very much, Larry!
I'll start this off with today's earlier post from the old thread:
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Natural gas 3-20-25
By metmike - May 22, 2025, 11:55 a.m.
As expected, another HUGE injection of +120 Bcf! Note the blue line/current storage on the graph below is going higher at a faster rate than the 5 year average and has now been ABOVE it for several weeks and by an increasing amount each week.
Price seasonals for NG are strongly up in April/May but each year is different. In 2025, the NG market is being crushed by increasing supplies in storage. This is a good thing for consumers! But bad for the trading bulls!
for week ending May 16, 2025 | Released: May 22, 2025 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: May 29, 2025 Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN Historical ComparisonsStocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf) Year ago
(05/16/24)5-year average
Working gas in storage was 2,375 Bcf as of Friday, May 16, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 120 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 333 Bcf less than last year at this time and 90 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,285 Bcf. At 2,375 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2020 through 2024. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.
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The last 0z European Ensemble(purple line on the right) was -6 CDDs(bearish). It's now the time of year when the seasonally increasing CDDs(dashed green line) are getting high enough for the market to trade it!!!
The price has been under pressure the last week+ as cooler and cooler temps in the forecast keep hitting weather traders computer screens..... including the one for June.
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https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
1. The last month below. Added heat in the forecast late April/early May. Much cooler mid/late last week and this week.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Natural gas 3-20-25
By metmike - May 18, 2025, 10:11 p.m.
This was a big part of the drop in prices the last 10 days:
Time to worry about 1930s type drought?
By metmike - May 18, 2025, 9:24 p.m.
mcfarm,
You are 100% on the money and understand this well!
The last long range European model, thru July 3rd has cooled off even more and added more rains in the Midwest:
This was the same forecast just 9 days ago:
I'm speculating that much of this cooler weather is dialed in and within the next several days, the forecasts will start to increase the heat on the back end of the forecast and MAYBE add some support.
The only thing is that June typically slips the seasonals from positive to negative and there is tremendous uncertainty about the economy because of Trumps policies.
Having a position in any of the markets right now has added risk because an announcement about the tariffs can spike the price in either direction at any time.
If you trade with tight stops in natural gas, you'll get stopped out, then it will go the other way. Big traders using algorithms know where the stops are and they constantly use that to cause an extremely volatile, spiky market........even when the market is trending in 1 direction.
I haven't traded it for awhile because of that but am definitely not retired from trading like Larry. In fact, I am anticipating some trades this Summer but am not sure. Regardless, gathering information and analyzing it is great fun and free!! Sharing it makes it that much more fun!
Natural gas almost always goes higher in April/May but each year is different.
We crashed lower in 2020 because of COVID(MUCH less industrial demand) and made a major spike low in June.
2025 has also been weak because the fundamentals are causing massive injections.
Bearish weather demand and increased production caused that.
https://charts.equityclock.com/natural-gas-futures-ng-seasonal-chart
This last 12z GEFS in the purple, on the right was COOLER in week 2, when temps are predicted to heat up.
The European model actually added 2.3 CDDs in purple on the right. That might help explain the modest recovering from the spike low in the morning. I'm not sure.
However, the updated European model 46 day temperature forecast(low skill) is not that bullish:
This applies to natural gas too with the caveat of the upper level ridging being more bullish the farther east that it is.
Re: Re: Re: Re: USDA May 12, 2025
By metmike - May 23, 2025, 3:51 p.m.
The markets are closed until Monday evening but the forecasts may turn bullish next week:
This is the upper level forecast at 500 mb with anomalies in color, at the end of the first week in July from the last European Ensemble model.
Predictions this far out have low skill. However, IF this is close to being correct, corn and beans will likely see some strength from bullish weather in June.
The stronger the upper level ridge is and farther north it is, the more bullish it will be.
Another triple digit injection and gain vs the previous years. Note the blue line of current storage climbing faster than anything else on the graph below:
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
for week ending May 23, 2025 | Released: May 29, 2025 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: June 5, 2025
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (05/23/24) | 5-year average (2020-24) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 05/23/25 | 05/16/25 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 462 | 432 | 30 | 30 | 534 | -13.5 | 455 | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 541 | 512 | 29 | 29 | 657 | -17.7 | 549 | -1.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 198 | 192 | 6 | 6 | 209 | -5.3 | 145 | 36.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 254 | 244 | 10 | 10 | 266 | -4.5 | 226 | 12.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 1,021 | 996 | 25 | 25 | 1,127 | -9.4 | 1,008 | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 328 | 321 | 7 | 7 | 324 | 1.2 | 304 | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 693 | 674 | 19 | 19 | 802 | -13.6 | 704 | -1.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,476 | 2,375 | 101 | 101 | 2,792 | -11.3 | 2,383 | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working gas in storage was 2,476 Bcf as of Friday, May 23, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 101 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 316 Bcf less than last year at this time and 93 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,383 Bcf. At 2,476 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2020 through 2024. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.