MetMike
AgTalk has some 'talk' about drought issues manifesting? Claims drought map more severe in May 2025 than 2011.
Your take?
Hi tjc!
Everybody's Summer forecast is for hot/dry as discussed previously here:
What La Nina?? April 26, 2025-Summer Outlook
Started by metmike - April 26, 2025, 4:15 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/111494/
However, comparing this to the Spring/May of 2011 is completely wrong. For one thing, we had a La Nina in place then which increases the odds of a drought in the Summer for the Cornbelt/Plains. We have a La Nada(neutral) conditions right now. El Nino's increase odd for GOOD growing weather. So ENSO neutral is no impact.
More in a minute
With regards to the drought map being more severe than 2011. This 1 map shows how much that's complete hogwash to be comparing the current area of drought to a time frame that they think is some sort of analog.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/TimeSeries.aspx
This was the just updated (this morning) Drought Monitor map right now from our drought/soil moisture page:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83853
With the heavy rains in the 7 day forecast, they will make a dent in that drought area:
1st image is a freeze frame for Thursday morning. 2nd one is constantly updated:
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
This was the May 17, 2011 Drought Monitor. All the drought was in the Southern Plains. ZERO drought in the Northern Plains or Midwest. We had a La Nina then.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/MapArchive.aspx
Again, this is the just released, May 13, 2025 Drought Monitor: Completely different! We also have ENSO neutral conditions right now NOT La Nina like in 2011.
This type of long range forecast from the European model is what has had the bulls all revved up.
This was from 6 days ago.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Grains/beans 4-13-25+
By metmike - May 9, 2025, 5:52 p.m.
1. European model 46 day rain anomaly. From this mornings 0z run.
2. European model 46 day temp anomaly.
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This same forecast below, updated today, 6 days later shows how unreliable a long range forecast is. Huge change for the Midwest. MUCH more rain and less heat. The Southern Plains, however is hot/dry on this latest low skill forecast.
This is the only part that's similar to same period of 2011, when the drought was in the Southern Plains in an area that does NOT have drought right now in 2025.
with all the no-til, cover crops, center pivots. minimum til, strip til, green planting used today I doubt there will ever be a 1930's type drought. But if you are a producer in a small drought area its still a drought and still devastating. We{ Central and S Midwest} are in a constant rain pattern right now and have hardly turned a wheel this spring. That is just as devastating. Dry begets dry and wet begets wet.
mcfarm,
You are 100% on the money and understand this well!
The last long range European model, thru July 3rd has cooled off even more and added more rains in the Midwest:
Wetter MW being partially attributed to AGW
Started by WxFollower - Sept. 20, 2023, 6:31 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/99132/
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mcfarm,
We all know about the Dust Bowl:
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-heat-waves
Figure 3. U.S. Annual HeatWaveIndex, 1895–2021
Can you imagine if we had these things happen today?
One reason that we don't is the climate change IS PROTECTING US!!!!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/97710/#97769
The Dust Bowl for almost an entire decade of the 1930's was the worse climate disaster in U.S. history SINCE 1900 BEFORE climate change. The current climate OPTIMUM is actually helping to protect us from another Dust Bowl.
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What people don't realize is that we had 3 separate Dust Bowls in the 1800's!!!!!
When CO2 was much lower and global temperatures were cooler, which played a huge role in this.
Global cooling and LOW CO2 levels are what cause widespread, extremely long lasting droughts with catastrophic global and huge regional famines!
Here in 2025, we are living in a climate optimum with absolute, scientific certainty!!
The 1800's featured 3 different Dust Bowls because of the low CO2 and global cooling.
Causes and consequences of nineteenth century droughts in North America
https://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/nineteenth.shtml
Of course no till and rows of corn jam packed together causing massive evapotranspiration (recirculating moisture) and using some of the daytime heat energy for photosynthesis also is helping a great deal in the US.
On a global scale, there has been no increase in drought.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/2017-state-climate-global-drought
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You want a REAL climate CRISIS?
This is what it looks like:
Can you imagine if this below happened today? It's less likely because climate change and the current climate OPTIMUM is helping to PROTECT US!
The planet had a REAL climate crisis between 1876 and 1878.
50 million people died. 3% of the global population died from that real climate crisis!
https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2017/12/15/causes-great-famine-drought/
https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC51F..04S/abstract
The 1876-1878 Great Famine impacted multiple regions across the globe including parts of Asia, Nordeste Brazil, and northern and southern Africa, with total human fatalities exceeding 50 million people, arguably the worst environmental disaster to befall humanity.
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Again, the current slight, beneficial global warming and massively beneficial increase in CO2 thats greening up the planet is the biggest reason we are being protected from this.