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Grains/beans 4-13-25+
44 responses |
Started by metmike - April 13, 2025, 3:39 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/111157/
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All the weather:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
All trade estimates for USDA's supply & demand reports due at 11 am CDT on Monday. These will include the agency's first outlooks for 2025/26 as well as updates to 2024/25. Globally, corn and soy stocks are seen up into next year while wheat stocks are seen steady.
One more poll.... South American crops 2024/25. USDA will publish its first cut at 2025/26 but analysts are not polled for that yet since it is so early.
BULLISH!!!!
For corn and beans but BEARISH for NEW CROP wheat production!
USDA puts 2025/26 U.S. corn ending stocks up 27% on the year (trade expected 40%). Wheat is pegged to rise 10% but soybean stocks are set to fall 16% on the year.
March planting intentions combined with USDA's trendline yields set 2025/26 U.S. corn production at 15.82 billion bushels and soybean production at 4.34 billion bushels.
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USDA predicts that the 2025/26 U.S. wheat crop will be smaller than in the previous year, but winter wheat output will be stronger. USDA's May survey also implied larger winter wheat production than analysts were expecting.
USDA leaves Argentina's 2024/25 corn and soy crops unchanged from last month but hikes Brazil's corn crop by 4 mmt. USDA also sets Brazil's 2025/26 soy crop at 175 mmt.
USDA pegs 2025/26 global #corn stocks well below trade expectations, largely driven by smaller-than-expected U.S. supplies. YOY global soy supply growth may not be as bad as feared, and wheat stocks are seen steady (though 24/25 stocks were hiked - and in several countries).
USDA puts 2025/26 U.S. soybean stocks-to-use at 6.68%, down from 7.98% in 2024/25. That is actually USDA's second lowest initial stocks/use outlook for U.S. #soybeans since 2012/13.
Up against the final stocks/use figures, 6.68% in 2025/26 would be a three-year low but slightly above the levels from 2020/21 through 2022/23. And this is assuming a record 2025 U.S. soybean yield of 52.5 bu/acre (current record is 51.9 from 2016).
Global #corn stocks-to-use drops to 8.33% in 2025/26 when you exclude grain hoarder China. That is up from 7.93% in 2024/25 but is otherwise the lowest since 2012/13.
USDA forecasts 2025/26 global #corn stocks-to-use at a 13-year low of 18.9%. That is despite predictions for a record-large U.S. corn crop.
The narrative has indeed shifted in the #wheat market. USDA predicts 2025/26 wheat stocks-to-use among major exporters at a 7-year high of 16.59%. Up until earlier this year, the theme for imminent, multi-year low wheat stocks/use had been ongoing for a few years.
U.S. farmers got a bit more crops planted last week than the trade expected. #Soybeans are still clinging to their record planting pace and #corn is still moving along well. Winter #wheat conditions jumped again, now 54% good/excellent.
Full report here: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/9k421b436/1z40nq264/prog1925.pdf
at what point does wheat become a compelling value
Maybe TODAY, coffeecloth!!!!
Big reversal up from spike low of long lasting downtrend (5 year lows-major support) possible today!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/wheat
1. 10 years-Major support here going back 5 years near $5.
2. 1 year-Double bottom with last September
3. 1 month-Reversal up possible from fresh lows in strong down trend
4. 1 week-Reversal up possible from new lows in big down trend-note the wave like structure of the strong downtrend
5. 1 day-Huge reversal up from spike low possible from selling exhaustion early this morning.........If we close higher.
Wheat did end up closing a couple cents higher. Was this a selling exhaustion lower or just temporary based on the bear flags/wave pattern and very strong $5 price level, extremely strong resistance.
The charts that I use from this site do not always line up perfectly with the futures prices that I use from my trading account. They are free and show the general patterns so I'm not complaining, just explaining.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/wheat
The USDA report for wheat on Monday was bearish and the crop progress report after the close was bearish yesterday. I think that, at the very least the bearish news and long lived selling had a short term peak.
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Also, adding to that bearishness is the rains the next week/7 days will be falling exactly where they're needed the most, especially in very dry Spring wheat country.
However, it is mostly dry for a key production area of the Hard Red Winter Wheat crop in the (western) Southern Plains during grain fill.
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
DROUGHT MONITOR
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/US/USA_Wheat.png
All the weather:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
Matt's weather:
May 13, 2025: Intense MN Fires | Midwest Severe Storms Likely | Vital Northern US Rains this Week
Update this morning: Forecast now, May 13th thru the end of June from the latest European Ensemble model:
Temps
Rain
Is this what reversed wheat higher????
Much of the crop in KS/OK/TX has just reached being headed so the grain fill process has begun. That takes around 2- 3 weeks to complete.
