A POTENTIAL severe storm and tornado outbreak is expected later today in the Upper Midwest.
Edit: On further review, there are some factors and models that show not much happening today. This will likely NOT be an outbreak!
Any storms that do develop could be discrete cells that have access to all that atmospheric energy to themselves......which could result it isolated intense storms.
Get all the constantly updated weather here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
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Previous threads:
3-30-25 TORNADO outbreak on 4-2-25
38 responses |
Started by metmike - March 30, 2025, 3:08 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/110789/
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4-4-25 Continuation of weather threats
26 responses |
Started by metmike - April 4, 2025, 12:50 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/110908/
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3-25-25 Severe weather for 3-30-25
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/110671/
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Tracking Severe Weather-3-14-25
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/110445/
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Severe weather outbreak 3-12-25
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/110407/
Latest outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center at 4am.
The updated graphics are on the next page.
1. Overall risk-moderate in the center
2. Tornado risk-chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any location.-15% = highest
3. Severe storm wind risk-within 25 miles of any point=30% in the center
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Go to this link and hit your county:
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Upper level jet stream. 300 mb on Monday afternoon.
120 mph jet streak coming under an upper level trough centered in Utah with a wave/perturbation tracking in the flow, crossing the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest.
Storms will fire up ahead of the wave(and surface dry line/cold front below it in the afternoon heating. Probably not many tornadoes. This is not an overly impressive jet stream.
Tracking the storm!
Current Conditions below updated every few minutes.
UPPER MIDWEST
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=13#
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=13#
LOWER MIDWEST
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20#
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20# 
It's drawing up warm/humid air ahead of it with cold/dry air to the north. Temperature contrasts/boundaries feed storms and provide lifting/triggering mechanisms.
https://thermastor.com/dew-point-and-weather-maps/
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current
Winter Weather Forecasts
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
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Current Hazards at the link below.
For your NWS and county, go to the link below.
Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county.
New radar product below
Go to: "Select View" then "Local Radar"
Hit the purple circle to see that local radar site
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This link below provides some great data. After going to the link, hit "Mesoanalysis" then, the center of any box for the area that you want, then go to observation on the far left, then surface observations to get constantly updated surface observations or hit another of the dozens of choices.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDEynt1FD8w
Ryan Hall Y'all:
Tuesday's risk has shifted much farther southeast. The jet stream is NOT favorable for tornadoes. A tornado is possible but it's UNLIKELY to see a violent, long track tornado with such a weak jet stream.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
1. Categorical risk. "almost" level 3 enhanced for Evansville, In........mainly for wind not tornadoes
2. Wind threat. Almost 30% chance of a severe thunderstorm with winds of 58+ mph within 25 miles of any location.
3. Tornado threat: Just 2%+ chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any location.
Severe storm reports the past 24 hours(Monday/Monday Night). Only 2 weak tornadoes. 31 high wind reports. NOT an outbreak!
A fairly potent jet stream, with a jet streak near 150 mph at 250 mb in the Great Lakes late this afternoon has me thinking that today could be more active than yesterday.
It's been a stormy Spring here in 2025 but we should still put things into perspective in this age of sensationalism with vivid images and over the top verbiage to describe every extreme weather event, using incredibly advanced technology.
It's a wonderful technology for tracking and warning for storms. Use it to understand/learn and be prepared but not to be afraid..
Re: Re: Severe weather outbreak 3-12-25
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/110407/#110430
Go to this link and hit your county:
Go to: "Select View" then "Local Radar"
Hit the purple circle to see that local radar site
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This link below provides some great data. After going to the link, hit "Mesoanalysis" then, the center of any box for the area that you want, then go to observation on the far left, then surface observations to get constantly updated surface observations or hit another of the dozens of choices.
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National Weather Service Paducah, KY area of responsibility:
Click a location below for detailed forecast.
Last Map Update: Tue, Apr 29, 2025 at 7:36:19 am CDT
Just issued Mesoscale Discussion.
If this storm cluster manages to hold together, it could get here late this afternoon:
A severe thunderstorm watch is likely to be issued shortly for the area inside the blue box, to our west. We will likely be next in line.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0600.html
That SEVERE THUNDERSTORM watch was issued in that area to our west, in effect until 3pm.
Depending on how things develop, places to the east should be under a watch later this afternoon.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0187.html
Note on the left in their highlights that for tornadoes, the risk is for the type of tornado with winds of 95 mph OR LESS! This type of weak tornado is more like a very strong thunderstorm with its damaging winds and almost never kills anybody inside of a sturdy building away from windows.
You don't want to be outside or in a mobile home in this type of storm but inside a permanent structure will provide plenty of safety, even without a basement.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_Fujita_scale
| EFU | Unknown | No surveyable damage |
|---|---|---|
| EF0 | 65–85 mph | Light damage |
| EF1 | 86–110 mph | Moderate damage |
| EF2 | 111–135 mph | Considerable damage |
| EF3 | 136–165 mph | Severe damage |
| EF4 | 166–200 mph | Devastating damage |
| EF5 | >200 mph | Incredible damage |
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The type of tornado we could see today, if it happened would most likely be an EF0 or a low end EF1 tornado!
Here's the deal on wind and damage.
As wind increases the damage massively increases on an exponential scale. This applies to ALL wind.
Severe storms and hurricanes and especially tornadoes that have the strongest winds of all, which means the tornadoes with winds over 150 mph have incredible damage.
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A 150 mph wind does 256X more damage than a 75 mph wind. Let's repeat that. A 150 mph wind does 256x more damage than a 75 mph wind!
Hurricane Damage Potential
https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/tc-potential
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Less than 1% of tornadoes are F4 or F5 but they kill 67% of the people!
Note that the majority of tornadoes, F0 and F1= 74%(on the old scale) only killed 4% of people and they were probably outside or in a mobile home.
The F4 and F5's were just 1% but caused 67% of deaths.
Breaking news:
The Storm Prediction Center says an 80% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for us in the next hour+!!!
Again, note the type of tornado we could have is 95 mph or less with severe thunderstorm winds up to 70 mph.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0603.html
The red counties are flash flood warnings NOT tornado warnings. Oranges are SEVERE THUNDERSTORM warnings..
As they advised us of earlier, the Storm Prediction Center has issued the SEVERE THUNDERSTORM Watch until 8pm. An early guess is the storms will be hitting us around 5pm, possibly sooner as they are racing east An isolated weak tornado is possible.
Main threat will be severe thunderstorm wind gusts up to 75 mph! Just stay inside a permanent building when the storms are passing thru, especially if we have a warning.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0189.html
Charge up all your electronics and other chargeable stuff NOW in case we have a power outage!
Even if the power is out briefly.
Storm reports so far today, just since 7am and its still early. 0 tornadoes.
The main threat is severe thunderstorm wind gusts as high as 75 mph.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
Storms are RACING east and will be here BEFORE 5pm. Lots of severe thunderstorm warnings along the approaching line of strong/severe storms. No tornadoes but they boosted their ISOLATED tornado intensity to 85-115 mph based on observing the mesoscale convection system(MCS). Still considered weak tornadoes.
Just updated Mesoscale update:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0606.html
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4pm: Looks to me that the part of the line coming thru Evansville HAS WEAKENED compared to earlier radar returns.
The strongest storms are passing NORTH of Evansville(winds to 66 mph just recorded at 4pm- in the county just north of Evansville), moving east at 50 mph and coming thru BEFORE 4:20pm. At least the bad part of the storm will be thru then.
286 severe thunderstorm wind reports so far today(wind greater than 58 mph). Ohio got nailed earlier. Just 1 weak tornado.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/250429_rpts.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/250429_rpts.html
For the 24 hour period:
580 high wind reports yesterday, April 29, 2025
67 for hail
4 weak tornadoes
We still have a lingering SLIGHT risk of severe weather on Wednesday and especially Thursday:
Go to this link and hit your county:
Thursday's outlook below(freeze frame)
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Interestingly, the chance of a weak tornado is higher today (5%) than Thursday (2%) even though the main threat, severe thunderstorm winds are HIGHEST on Thursday:
1. Tornado risk Wednesday. Chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any location.
2. Tornado risk Thursday. Chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any location.
The upper level steering winds/jet stream still have a strong south component with the main upper level trough still to our west for more than another day.
1. Wednesday morning-southwest winds
2. Thursday mid-day-south winds-trough still to the west
3. Saturday afternoon-FINALLY the upper level trough moves east!
The front that went thru on Tuesday, triggering over 500 severe thunderstorm wind reports has stalled to our south and is returning as a warm front, putting us back in the very warm/humid air again later day. Then on Thursday, when a low pressure system develops to our west and increases storms again.
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/current-weather/mixed-surface-analysis
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We can see the air mass contrast on either side of that front: 80s today south of the Ohio River
Latest Surface Temperature Analysis
https://thermastor.com/dew-point-and-weather-maps/
Ryan Hall Y'all. Always great coverage.
The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring numerous locations late this afternoon:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
40% of a severe thunderstorm watch later this afternoon in the purple box below. Obviously a marginal situation based on what the atmosphere does which is often uncertain in some situations.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0621.html
They DID issue a tornado watch for an area just north of that outlined area. Here's the latest (tornado) watch boxes. The threat appears to be NORTH of Evansville because the warm front is up there.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
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Incorrectly drawn front. It's now well NORTH of this position as evidenced by 80's NORTH of the Ohio River. Evansville is at 83 degrees with stiff SOUTH winds at 13 mph gusting to 20 mph driving the warm front even farther north.
