I saw an interesting chart of gold adjusted for inflation (I don't know how to post charts)
When gold touched $3500 / oz this week it equalled the 1980 high (inflation adjusted).
In retrospect the market backed off $200 indicating some resistance there. The high made in 1980 was made on speculative frothiness due to 13% inflation. This gold bull market isn't based on an inflation scare in my view (currently at 2-3 percent). Also, it doesn't seem frothy currently. I've only seen one gold bull on CNBC and he was recommending gold mining stocks, which have greatly underperformed the metal.
Central banks are reportedly buying gold. Perhaps the status of the US dollar as the worlds reserve currency is in question now?
I have no strong opinion as to direction short term but 5-10% of ones assets allocated to gold seems prudent as a sort of financial disaster insurance policy. Land or Real estate might work just as well but gold coins are fairly liquid and can be easily transported.
Previous threads:
Gold ---- next---!!
13 responses |
Started by fayq - April 8, 2025, 11:46 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/111021/
Gold $3000
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/110441/
12 responses |
Started by joj - March 14, 2025, 5:49 a.m.
Thanks, joj!
Gold and Trump Trade???
Started by joj - Feb. 10, 2025, 8:17 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/109907/
Gold 4 Hour Chart $$$
21 responses |
Started by mikempt - Sept. 29, 2024, 8:40 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107734/
Gold Trading Range
25 responses |
Started by mikempt - Aug. 4, 2024, 8:29 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/106400/
GOLD dance!!!
45 responses |
Started by fays - June 6, 2024, 7:09 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/104645/
Gold
37 responses |
Started by cutworm - Nov. 29, 2023, 8:14 p.m. https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/100943/
I'm still trying to get it all together after the injury and catching up but doing WAY better than expected and appreciating some really basic things much more than before.
Thanks again, joj for starting a new VERY insightful thread on a popular topic here.
Was this finally THE top? Double top with 1980 dialing in inflation? Everybody predicting a top recently was wrong and blown out.
Mike had a great idea, shorting gold trade when some short term indicators flipped down, with the way overloaded longs vulnerable to a sharp spike lower(even if there was an issue with me on the timing/posting, it was actually smart trade recognized by a seasoned trader with great observation skills).
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold
1. 1 week MAJOR reversal down earlier this week. Spike to all time highs at psychological resistance of 3500, followed by a lower close that day. Reversals don't look more impressive than this one and it certainly caught the attention of the buy at any price trade mentality fueling the parabolic move higher. With the buying temporarily exhausted and the new mentality of profit taking and new shorts who were picking the top because of this powerful, technical topping formation. Regardless, the price actually stabilized the last 2 days and is NOT in a free fall yet.
2. 1 year-This weeks reversal down and lower price the next day is just a tiny blip
3. 10 years. This week's reversal lower day doesn't even show up
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold
1. 1 month-Major top and reversal lower on April 22nd-new bearish downtrend channel.
2. 1 year-uptrend still solidly intact
3. 10 years-steepening, increasing sloped uptrend, parabolic move still intact
So I don't have strong conviction in gold right here, but if ya made me pick to buy or sell gold, I'm buying. Short term, last Thursday gold broke out to the downside, followed by a pause day on Friday. Anyone bearish gold and taking that sell signal is sucking gas right now with Gold up $75/oz. Longer term, gold is a small market and even just a slight adjustment in the buying of gold by central banks internationally, can have a large effect on gold prices.
Trump = Chaos = gold to the moon Alice!!
Good call so far, joj!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold
1. 1 day: HUGE move up +100
2. 1 week: Reversed all the losses from late last week. Like joj mentioned, anybody shorting then is under water now.
3. 1 year: Broke the brief/short term down/bearish channel after the reversal top in April. Parabolic move higher is still solidly intact. Steepening uptrend line has not been violated.
Great call yesterday, joj!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold
Trading post of the week 5-6-25-joj
Started by metmike - May 6, 2025, 12:14 p.m.
Gold getting hammered. Looks like your call was spot on Mike.
Thanks, joj!
Gold could be on the verge of a major downside break out here. Orrrr MAJOR short term support will hold.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold
1. 1 month-Major double top-downside break out? At major short term support
2. 1 year-potential double top-downside break out? Bear flag/pennant? Support can still hold right here.
3. 10 years-Still just a small blip on the long term charts
Gold put in a solid day. Possible low and long term bull flag?
Or working on a bear flag after THE high earlier this year?
Either outcome is possible from here.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold
1. 1 day-spike low, possible short term bottom?
2. 1 month-solid down trend.
3. 1 year-strong longer term uptrend not violated. However, we failed to test the previous record highs on the last big rally. But this could just be a big BULL flag OR it could be a smaller BEAR flag formation after the highs with a down channel/bearish signature at the moment.
4. 10 years-parabolic/exponential move up still intact
5. Technical price charts, like this one often have 2 completely opposite possible projections that can't be known until we break 1 way or the other. Factors that are currently unknown will likely determine which way that we go.
I used to believe that Trump would fire Powell. Unlawful yes, but that’s how he rolls. Now , I think he leaves Powell in there as both a punching bag for not lowering interest rates and as someone to blame if the economy goes south.
I believe that when Powell’s term ends in 2026, Trump will replace him with a stooge loyalist who will lower interest rates and devalue the US$. (More vodka in the punch bowl)
Gold may be overvalued but I think it goes higher eventually.
You are probably right, joj.
Well before that, we will be hit with increasingly negative impacts from Trump's fairy tale tariff schemes.
The reckoning is coming up. Either Trump backs off more and faces reality or negative economic hardships are imposed for both sides, especially US consumers who will pay higher prices.....with much less in benefits(the government capturing the tariffs)
Here we go again?
As long as Trump is president there will be constant chaos, really dumb, often impulsive and sometimes corrupt behavior and decisions. That's good for gold prices.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold
1. 1 month. Gold breaking out of a bull flag??
2. 1 year. Gold breaking out of a bull flag?
3. 10 years. Still a parabolic move higher with a steeping slope of the uptrend.
Gold poised to take out the old highs.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold
1. 1 month
2. 1 year-breaking out from bull flag.
3. 10 years. Parabolic/exponential move higher.
