Time flies, it's already August 17th. We're all exactly 1 day older than yesterday. Do something special to remember this next day!
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!
The next, huge rain event starts on Saturday in the Plains. Widespread, belt wide rains on the way. By August standards this should be a blockbuster rain event.
The latest rain forecasts are below...........broken down into each period coming up. Then the 1 week totals.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Excessive Rainfall threat. New system emerges in Plains on Saturday.
Current Day 1 Forecast |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Day 3 forecast below
Severe Storm Risk. Hit the map for full screen.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Current Day 1 Outlook | |
Current Day 2 Outlook | |
Current Day 3 Outlook | |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
High Temperatures today and Saturday. Hot in several places.
Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)! Humid over the eastern half of the country............ providing high precipitable water to use for rains next week.
Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature. Feeling sultry in much of the country.
Highs days 3-7.
Heat in the West again, just not as intense.
Becoming very Pleasant from the Plains to Midwest to East.
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year? We are now 4 weeks past the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.
Hot West. Cool Central Plains and points east/southeast.
High temperature departures:
Low Temperature Departures:
Weather system in the Eastern Cornbelt to Southern Plains moving veeeery slowly, several pieces.
Rains the past 24 hours. Alot of it and very welcome.
You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Missouri to S.Plains was in horrible shape......the map below shows massive improvement in the S.Plains as the drought gets busted!
MO still very dry but more rain on the way next week.
Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day. Midwest info not updated.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday. Drought will be shrinking.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx
Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in white.
Today: Hot in the West but not AS hot as recent days.....heat spilling into the N.Plains. Most places near average.
In 5+ days:
Hot along the West Coast. Cool surge Midwest....diving southeast!
In 10+ days Warmest West again!!!! Heat moving east..... ..positive anamolies across the country...........warmer than yesterday!!!
Day 15 Warmest West. Heat across much of the country......warmer than yesterday.
Latest 0z run of the Canadian model ensembles..........for late week 2.
Heat ridge potential looking very impressive today for East/Southeast today!
The top map is the ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 01, 2018 00 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4.
Precip below:
By cfdr - Aug. 15, 2018, 10:54 p.m.
Once again, thanks, mike. We're still up here in Terrace - plan to be here for another four weeks or so. Not that I like the forecasts for this area - fires are really bad, and the only road in here goes through some areas that are burning up. The models do not look like they show any change in this persistent pattern.
At least it hasn't affected the fish - the river fresh sockeye on the grill are just outstanding.
I appreciate the reports - even if they don't show what I would like them to show.
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By metmike - Aug. 15, 2018, 10:59 p.m.
You're very welcome cfdr!
Always great to hear from you and glad the fish are biting.
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By mcfarm - Aug. 16, 2018, 7:12 a.m.
Mike, we got nearly an inch of rain yesterday. Although too late {as the crops are ahead of schedule} to do much good I'm sure they helped some. The grass looks better already this morning. Combine that with a 20
China rumor rally and this day is starting fine.
Last 12z GFS operational model is a bit cooler in week 1 but continues to look very impressive with the week 2 heat ridge/dome in the East:
gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht |
Total precip below:
Forecast Hour: 384
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif
As I've been advertising the last several days, the NWS later week forecasts(8-14 days) should be warming up in the midsection especially.
They had featured widespread below normal in that area earlier this week. Today's 8-14 from the NWS that comes out in a couple of hours will really make a warm leap to widespread ABOVE temperatures in that location.
Here is one of the tools that they use(and its not nearly warm enough in my opinion)
NWS extended maps turning in the directions as speculated the last few days:
"Could turn out much different with regards to temperatures as we get deeper into week 2(potential to be much warmer in the midsection)"
6-10 day Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability |
8-14 day Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability |
Extreme weather days 3-7:
Heavy rain event(s), starting in the Plains over the weekend and moving northeast, into the Great Lakes/Northeast by early next week. Also in Mid Atlantic area,
Mike,
Great call on the warmer later in week 2!