Lady Minerva is just being accommodating after a little singe to the fringe last friday...

    --- Thanks Babe... I Am Still Baking That Soy Cake For You !!!☺

U.S., China to Resume Trade Talks as Tariffs Bite

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-china-to-resume-trade-talks-as-tariffs-bite-1534395737

Rains also missed a big section of the central Corn/Bean belt, including a big part of IL but there is more on the way and the 20c spike up yesterday evening in an hour was clearly not from weather and must have been from news because there weren't any weather models coming out at the time and the weather didn't change dramatically.

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                By mcfarm - Aug. 16, 2018, 7:12 a.m.            

            Mike, we got nearly an inch of rain yesterday. Although too late {as the crops are ahead of schedule} to do much good I'm sure they helped some. The grass looks better already this morning. Combine that with a 20
China rumor rally and this day is  starting fine.

So much for China weathering the storm.  They know what the deal is.  They just didn't think an American politician would have the stomach to do such a thing.  

Trump may be a Billionaire bore, but the entire political community knew that something had to be done about the trade imbalance.  Leave it Trump to run roughshod over China.  

Export sales:

Wheat sales huge....corn and beans looked weak on old crop but good for corn on new crop.

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/highlite.htm

      Cornbelt Marketing‏ @SamuelBHudson                                              

Pretty good new crop #export sales number for #corn, and old crop #wheat numbers nearly triple last week's! Pay attention there; well behind pace still, but have a looooong way to go. If the market wants the #acres, it needs to come after them now.

Started by mcfarm - Aug. 13, 2018, 5:59 p.m.            

                                        https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=799451&mid=6927862#M6927862   notice Illinois especially.  Heat fill and flash droughts come out of no where and are hard and fast. I can tell you a fair amount of Indiana and Minnesota are experiencing the same. With ears starting to hang this rain predicted is far too late for corn...will help some of the beans

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                By metmike - Aug. 13, 2018, 11:57 p.m.            

Thanks mcfarm. It's awesome when you send us links like that!

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-08-13-2018.txt

 By Jim_M - Aug. 13, 2018, 3:49 p.m.            

Corn around here is pretty much done.  There are a couple fields when the stalks are drying up.  Granted...not large fields, but it's a sign the crop has matured in some areas and the best is over.  

                By mcfarm - Aug. 13, 2018, 3:54 p.m.            

JIM, We have fields that have given up. Even on some very good soils now, not just the hills or light ground, like last week. Still good crops but certainly maturing way to fast and now shrinking. There will be some chopping for silage and shelling right after labor day this year.

By metmike - Aug. 10, 2018, 1 p.m.            

Obviously the report was mega bearish.  Weather still looks the same.  Tons of rain for MO/IL/IN/OH and possibly in to IA.

Not so much northwest belt. Temps may start cooling more in the extended forecasts, so the weather is being seen as bearish.

USDA Forecasts Record High Corn Yield and Soybean Production for 2018

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/2018/08-10-2018.php

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/crop0818.pdf

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Shocking report from the USDA. Increasing soybean stocks for next year by 200 million bushels to the highest in history. Wow! Am thinking this projection was higher than the highest guess from any of the dozen+ professional services that  the market looks to for serious guidance. 

From Farm Futures:

Afternoon Market Recap for Aug. 10, 2018

https://www.farmfutures.com/afternoon-recap/afternoon-market-recap-aug-10-2018

On beans, what can you say

Still think the lows are in for corn but with less confidence now.

CZ  around 379.......29c off the lows right now and 49c off the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month Sept.

Corn historical perspective:

Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago   

3 month below September(front month) 

1 year below

5 year below                                      10 year below

I thought the lows were in for bean(and they might be) but that was before the USDA fed the market one of the most bearish crop reports ever.  2019 to have the highest stocks in  history?

SX has now bounced back to 890, 55c off the lows(which were 10 year lows), around $1.70 below the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month, Sept. It is conceivable that we can make new lows. 

Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently just above the 10 year lows !!!!!

Soybeans 3 months below......bottom in. 

Soybeans 1 year chart below   

Soybeans 5 years below

Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, Currently, after bouncing off of 10 year lows, we are back down there again!

As noted below in the seasonals(averaging prices over a 20 year period and graphing them with time), most of the price weakness in corn and beans takes place in June and July. 

In many years, the month of August features price strength.......as much of the weather premium has come out and much of the crop size is known. Even great weather, sometimes has a hard time inspiring additional aggressive selling. 

Beans have a pretty strong, brief spike down in late Sept, headed into early harvest. Corn sometimes too but it often does not take out the Summer lows.